Effects of Resolution,Cumulus Parameterization Scheme,and Probability Forecasting on Precipitation Forecasts in a High-Resolution Limited-Area Ensemble Prediction System

This study investigates the effects of horizontal resolution, cumulus parameterization scheme (CPS), and probability forecasting on precipitation forecasts over the Korean Peninsula from 00 UTC 15 August to 12 UTC 14 September 2013, using the limited-area ensemble prediction system (LEPS) of the Korea Meteorological Administration. To investigate the effect of resolution, the control members of the LEPS with 1.5- and 3-km resolution were compared. Two 3-km experiments with and without the CPS were conducted for the control member, because a 3-km resolution lies within the gray zone. For probability forecasting, 12 ensemble members with 3-km resolution were run using the LEPS. The forecast performance was evaluated for both the whole study period and precipitation cases categorized by synoptic forcing. The performance of precipitation forecasts using the 1.5-km resolution was better than that using the 3-km resolution for both the total period and individual cases. The result of the 3-km resolution experiment with the CPS did not differ significantly from that without it. The 3-km ensemble mean and probability matching (PM) performed better than the 3-km control member, regardless of the use of the CPS. The PM complemented the defect of the ensemble mean, which better predicts precipitation regions but underestimates precipitation amount by averaging ensembles, compared to the control member. Further, both the 3-km ensemble mean and PM outperformed the 1.5-km control member, which implies that the lower performance of the 3-km control member compared to the 1.5-km control member was complemented by probability forecasting.     

Effect of ENSO on landfalling tropical cyclones over the Korean peninsula

The effect of ENSO on landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Korean Peninsula is examined. It is found that although the landfalling frequency does not show any statistically significant difference among ENSO phases, the landfalling tracks are shifted northward in response to the decrease in Niño-3.4 index. In the neutral ENSO phase, many TCs pass through mainland China before landfalling over the Korean Peninsula due to the westward expansion of the western North Pacific subtropical high. Therefore, the landfalling TC intensity over the Korean Peninsula in the neutral phase is similar to that in the La Niña phase because more than half of those TCs made landfall over mainland China. However, it is found that the preceding winter ENSO phases are not related to the landfalling TC activity over the Korean Peninsula during summer.     

Future changes in summer precipitation in regional climate simulations over the Korean Peninsula forced by multi-RCP scenarios of HadGEM2-AO

In this study, the regional climate of the Korean Peninsula (KP) was dynamically downscaled using a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) forced by multi- representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios of HadGEM2-AO, and changes in summer precipitation were investigated. Through the evaluation of the present climate, the RCM reasonably reproduced long-term climatology of summer precipitation over the KP, and captured the sub-seasonal evolution of Changma rain-band. In future projections, all RCP experiments using different RCP radiative forcings (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 runs) simulated an increased summer precipitation over the KP. However, there were some differences in changing rates of summer precipitation among the RCP experiments. Future increases in summer precipitation were affected by future changes in moisture convergence and surface evaporation. Changing ranges in moisture convergences among RCP experiments were significantly larger than those in surface evaporation. This indicates that the uncertainty of changes in summer precipitation is related to the projection of the monsoon circulation, which determines the moisture convergence field through horizontal advection. Changes in the sub-seasonal evolution of Changma rain-band were inconsistent among RCP experiments. However, all experiments showed that Changma rain-band was enhanced during late June to early July, but it was weakened after mid-July due to the expansion of the western North Pacific subtropical high. These results indicate that precipitation intensity related to Changma rain-band will be increased, but its duration will be reduced in the future.     

Evaluation of ACCMIP simulated fine-mode AOD and its implication for aerosol direct forcing

This study examines and evaluates simulated aerosol optical depth (AOD) and fine-mode AOD (fAOD) from the ACCMIP and CMIP5 global model archives. Satellite data nudged to AERONET data are used to construct reliable global observations of AOD and fAOD for validating the simulations. The difference in simulated global average AOD among models is of the order of a factor of 2, and the difference is even larger (～factor of 3) for fAOD. Compared to the observations, the models tend to underestimate AOD and fAOD significantly over eastern China. Another important discrepancy is that the models show larger fAOD over the Indus-Ganga Plain in summer than in winter, whereas the observations display an opposite feature. The models also overestimate the fAOD over the biomass burning regions of central Africa in DJF and underestimate the fAOD over the biomass burning regions of southern Africa in JJA. To evaluate the effect of the discrepancy between modeled and observed fAOD on aerosol direct radiative forcing, an offline radiation model is utilized. Comparing the model-fAODderived fine-mode forcing with the fine-mode forcing derived from the fAOD observation, the models tend to give too large (negative) value. This result implies that the calculated anthropogenic aerosol forcing in ACCMIP and CMIP5 models has a negative bias.     

A regional climate change simulation over East Asia

In this study, regional climate changes for seventy years (1980–2049) over East Asia and the Korean Peninsula are investigated using the Special Reports on Emission Scenarios (SRES) B1 scenario via a high-resolution regional climate model, and the impact of global warming on extreme climate events over the study area is investigated. According to future climate predictions for East Asia, the annual mean surface air temperature increases by 1.8°C and precipitation decreases by 0.2 mm day^?1 (2030–2049). The maximum wind intensity of tropical cyclones increases in the high wind categories, and the intra-seasonal variation of tropical cyclone occurrence changes in the western North Pacific. The predicted increase in surface air temperature results from increased longwave radiations at the surface. The predicted decrease in precipitation is caused primarily by northward shift of the monsoon rain-band due to the intensified subtropical high. In the nested higher-resolution (20 km) simulation over the Korean Peninsula, annual mean surface air temperature increases by 1.5°C and annual mean precipitation decreases by 0.2 mm day^?1. Future surface air temperature over the Korean Peninsula increases in all seasons due to surface temperature warming, which leads to changes in the length of the four seasons. Future total precipitation over the Korean Peninsula is decreased, but the intensity and occurrence of heavy precipitation events increases. The regional climate changes information from this study can be used as a fruitful reference in climate change studies over East Asia and the Korean peninsula.     

A global non-hydrostatic dynamical core using the spectral element method on a cubed-sphere grid

A new global model with a non-hydrostatic (NH) dynamical core is developed. It employs the spectral element method (SEM) in the horizontal discretization and the finite difference method (FDM) in the vertical discretization. The solver includes a time-split third-order Runge-Kutta (RK3) time-integration technique. Pursuing the quasi-uniform and pole singularity-free spherical geometry, a cubed-sphere grid is employed. To assess the performance of the developed dynamical solver, the results from a number of idealized benchmark tests for hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic flows are presented and compared. The results indicate that the non-hydrostatic dynamical solver is able to produce solutions with good accuracy and consistency comparable to reference solutions. Further evaluation of the model with a full-physics package demonstrates its capability in reproducing heavy rainfall over the Korean Peninsula, which confirms that coupling of the dynamical solver and full-physics package is robust.     

Structure of Eigenvalues in the Advection-Diffusion Equation by the Spectral Element Method on a Cubed-Sphere Grid

To fundamentally understand discretized equations and differential operators, this study investigates the eigenvalues of the spherical gradient matrix and spherical Laplacian matrix discretized by the spectral element method (SEM) on the cubed-sphere grid (CS) for solid-body rotation. The gradient matrix with prescribed wind for the solid-body rotation has small positive real numbers in the eigenvalues, which implies that the solutions of the advection equation for solid-body rotation can be unstable and distorted. However, the unstable model can be effectively controlled by the Laplacian matrix, and all eigenvalues of the Laplacian matrix are aligned along the negative part of the real axis. The maximum eigenvalues of the gradient matrix and Laplacian matrix exhibit the characteristic of a linear function of the resolution, which is important to determine the upper limit of the time-step size for stable time integration. This study suggests suitable e-folding time scale of the diffusion using the 6th order for applications of the advection-diffusion equation. Regarding the characteristics of the eigenvalues, the setting of the stable time step is discussed. A method to implement the diffusion operators in the third-order Runge-Kutta time integration scheme in the advection-diffusion model is also discussed.     

Analysis and simulation of mesoscale convective systems accompanying heavy rainfall: The goyang case

We investigated a torrential rainfall case with a daily rainfall amount of 379 mm and a maximum hourly rain rate of 77.5 mm that took place on 12 July 2006 at Goyang in the middlewestern part of the Korean Peninsula. The heavy rainfall was responsible for flash flooding and was highly localized. High-resolution Doppler radar data from 5 radar sites located over central Korea were analyzed. Numerical simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were also performed to complement the high-resolution observations and to further investigate the thermodynamic structure and development of the convective system. The grid nudging method using the Global Final (FNL) Analyses data was applied to the coarse model domain (30 km) in order to provide a more realistic and desirable initial and boundary conditions for the nested model domains (10 km, 3.3 km). The mesoscale convective system (MCS) which caused flash flooding was initiated by the strong low level jet (LLJ) at the frontal region of high equivalent potential temperature (θ_e) near the west coast over the Yellow Sea. The ascending of the warm and moist air was induced dynamically by the LLJ. The convective cells were triggered by small thermal perturbations and abruptly developed by the warm θ_e inflow. Within the MCS, several convective cells responsible for the rainfall peak at Goyang simultaneously developed with neighboring cells and interacted with each other. Moist absolutely unstable layers (MAULs) were seen at the lower troposphere with the very moist environment adding the instability for the development of the MCS.     

Recycling of suspended particulates by the interaction of sea-land breeze circulation and complex coastal terrain

Summary The dispersion of recycled particulates in the complex coastal terrain surrounding Kangnung city, Korea was investigated using a three-dimensional non-hydrostatic numerical model and lagrangian particle model (or random walk model). The results show that particulates at the surface of the city that float to the top of thermal internal boundary layer (TIBL) are then transported along the eastern slope of the mountains with the sea breeze passage and nearly reach the top of the mountains. Those particulates then disperse eastward at this upper level over the coastal sea and finally spread out over the open sea. Total suspended particulate (TSP) concentration near the surface of Kangnung city is very low. At night, synoptic scale westerly winds intensify due to the combined effect of the synoptic scale wind and land breeze descending the eastern slope of the mountains toward the coast and further seaward. This increase in speed causes development of internal gravity waves and a hydraulic jump up to a height of about 1km above the surface over the city. Particulate matter near the top of the mountains also descends the eastern slope of the mountains during the day, reaching the central city area and merges near the surface inside the nocturnal surface inversion layer (NSIL) with a maximum ground level concentration of TSP occurring at 0300 LST. Some particulates are dispersed following the propagation area of internal gravity waves and others in the NSIL are transported eastward to the coastal sea surface, aided by the land breeze. The following morning, particulates dispersed over the coastal sea from the previous night, tend to return to the coastal city of Kangnung with the sea breeze, developing a recycling process and combine with emitted surface particulates during the morning. These processes result in much higher TSP concentration. In the late morning, those particulates float to the top of the TIBL by the intrusion of the sea breeze and the ground level TSP concentration in the city subsequently decreases.     

Technical note on a track-pattern-based model for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific

Recently, the National Typhoon Center (NTC) at the Korea Meteorological Administration launched a track-pattern-based model that predicts the horizontal distribution of tropical cyclone (TC) track density from June to October. This model is the first approach to target seasonal TC track clusters covering the entire western North Pacific (WNP) basin, and may represent a milestone for seasonal TC forecasting, using a simple statistical method that can be applied at weather operation centers. In this note, we describe the procedure of the track-pattern-based model with brief technical background to provide practical information on the use and operation of the model. The model comprises three major steps. First, long-term data of WNP TC tracks reveal seven climatological track clusters. Second, the TC counts for each cluster are predicted using a hybrid statistical-dynamical method, using the seasonal prediction of large-scale environments. Third, the final forecast map of track density is constructed by merging the spatial probabilities of the seven clusters and applying necessary bias corrections. Although the model is developed to issue the seasonal forecast in mid-May, it can be applied to alternative dates and target seasons following the procedure described in this note. Work continues on establishing an automatic system for this model at the NTC.