Characteristics of Stable Flows over Southern Greenland

The main characteristic features of stable atmospheric flows over a large mountain plateau are summarised and then compared with mesoscale and synoptic scale numerical simulation, meteorological analysis, satellite imagery, and surface observations for the cases of flows over Southern Greenland for four wind directions. The detailed features are identified using the concepts and scaling of stably stratified flow over large mountains with variations in surface roughness, elevation, and heating. For westerly and easterly winds detached jets form at the southern tip, where coastal jets converge, which propagate large distances across the ocean. Near coasts katabatic winds can combine with barrier jets and wake flows generated by synoptic winds. Note how the approach flow rises/falls over southern Greenland for easterly/westerly winds, leading in both cases to more cloud on the western side. Some conclusions are drawn about the large-scale influences of these flows; detached jets in the atmosphere; air-sea interaction; formation of low pressure systems. For accurate simulations of these flows, mesoscale models are necessary with resolutions of order of 20 km or less.     

Blanket peat erosion and sediment yield in an upland reservoir catchment in the southern Pennines,UK

This paper investigates temporal variations in fluxes of peat and other sediment in the catchment of March Haigh Reservoir, West Yorkshire. Long‐term estimates of sediment yield were derived from a study of reservoir sediments. Magnetic properties were used to correlate ten cores to a master profile dated using ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs. A ¹⁴C date suggests that most of the organic component of the sediment is allochthonous and derived from peat eroded from the catchment. Organic sediment yields suggest low catchment erosion rates between 1838 and 1963. Blanket peat erosion increased significantly after 1963, and peaked between 1976 and 1984. Estimates of total sediment yield range between 2 and 28 t km^?2 a^?1. These yields are significantly lower than those from some previous studies examining reservoir sedimentation in other blanket peat‐covered catchments. The low yield estimates may be due to relatively low rates of erosion in the basin, but may also be partly explained by maintenance of silt traps during the early life of the reservoir and removal of sediment by scouring. Sedimentation within the reservoir is spatially variable, and bathymetry and sediment source appear to be the dominant controls on sedimentation patterns within the reservoir. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A description of persistent climatic anomalies in a 1000-year climatic model simulation

 The Mark 2 version of the CSIRO coupled global climatic model has been used to generate a 1000-year simulation of natural (i.e. unforced) climatic variability representative of “present conditions”. The annual mean output from the simulation has been used to investigate the occurrence of decadal and longer trends over the globe for a number of climatic variables. Here trends are defined to be periods of years with a climatic anomaly of a given sign. The analysis reveals substantial differences between the trend characteristics of the various climatic variables. Trends longer than 12 years duration were unusual for rainfall. Such trends were fairly uniformly distributed over the globe and had an asymmetry in the rate of occurrence for wet or dry conditions. On the other hand, trends in surface wind stress, and especially the atmospheric screen temperature, were of longer duration but primarily confined to oceanic regions. The trends in the atmospheric screen temperature could be traced deep into the oceanic mixed layer, implying large changes in oceanic thermal inertia. This thermal inertia then constituted an important component of the `memory' of the climatic system. While the geographic region associated with a given trend could be identified over several adjacent grid boxes of the model, regional plots for individual years of the trend revealed a range of variations, suggesting that a consistent forcing mechanism may not be responsible for a trend at a given location. Typical return periods for 12-year rainfall trends were once in 1000 years, highlighting the rarity of such events. Using a looser definition of a trend revealed that drying trends up to 50 years duration were also possible, attributable solely to natural climatic variability. Significant (∼20% to 40%) rainfall reductions per year can be associated with a long-term drying trend, hence such events are of considerable climatic significance. It can take more than 100 years for the hydrologic losses associated with such a trend to be overcome. Overall, the simulation provides new and useful insights into climatic trends, and quantifies a number of poorly observed characteristics. The results highlight the extensive and pervasive influence of unforced natural climatic variability as an omnipresent generator of climatic trends. Received: 20 January 2000 / Accepted: 21 September 2000     

Evolution of localized folding for a thin elastic layer in a softening visco-elastic medium

Long compressed elastic struts on softening elastic foundations have a tendency to buckle locally. The same tendency is demonstrated here for the instantaneous response of elastic struts supported by visco-elastic media. A governing nonlinear partial differential equation is derived to describe the evolution of the localized form in time. Under the assumed constant end-shortening this is found to be approximated by a coupled set of seven ordinary differential (diffusion) equations. As the load drops to zero, the localized buckle pattern evolves towards the form of the single long wave, but remains aperiodic for all time. Three-dimensional plots show how this localized pattern changes over time.     

Using high hydraulic conductivity nodes to simulate seepage lakes

In a typical ground water flow model, lakes are represented by specified head nodes requiring that lake levels be known a priori. To remove this limitation, previous researchers assigned high hydraulic conductivity (K) values to nodes that represent a lake, under the assumption that the simulated head at the nodes in the high-K zone accurately reflects lake level. The solution should also produce a constant water level across the lake. We developed a model of a simple hypothetical ground water/lake system to test whether solutions using high-K lake nodes are sensitive to the value of K selected to represent the lake. Results show that the larger the contrast between the K of the aquifer and the K of the lake nodes, the smaller the error tolerance required for the solution to converge. For our test problem, a contrast of three orders of magnitude produced a head difference across the lake of 0.005 m under a regional gradient of the order of 10(-3) m/m, while a contrast of four orders of magnitude produced a head difference of 0.001 m. The high-K method was then used to simulate lake levels in Pretty Lake, Wisconsin. Results for both the hypothetical system and the application to Pretty Lake compared favorably with results using a lake package developed for MODFLOW (Merritt and Konikow 2000). While our results demonstrate that the high-K method accurately simulates lake levels, this method has more cumbersome postprocessing and longer run times than the same problem simulated using the lake package.     

Natural Climatic Variability as an Explanation for Historical Climatic Fluctuations

The question as to whether the climatic anomalies associated with the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age can be attributed to natural climatic variability is explored in this paper. The output from a 500-year run with a global climatic model is used for this purpose. The model exhibits multi-decadal variability in its climatic outputs, which appears to have many of the characteristics of observed climatic data over the last millennium. Global distributions of surface temperature associated with peak warming and cooling phases of the model run highlight the spatial variability which occurs, and the lack of synchroneity in the response from region to region. Considerable year-to-year variability occurs in temperature anomaly patterns during the warming and cooling phases, indicating the complexity of the responses. The model results suggest that such climatic phases should not be considered as lengthy periods of universal warming or cooling. Comparison of observed time series of land surface temperature for the northern hemisphere for the last 500 years with model output indicates that most of the observed features in this climatic record can be reproduced by processes associated with internal mechanisms of the climatic system as reproduced in the model. While the model results do not exclude the possible contribution of external forcing agents as a contributing factor to these climatic episodes, the perception is that such agents would enhance existing naturally-induced climatic features rather than initiate them, at least for this time frame. Given the omnipresent nature of natural climatic variability, it is assumed that such variability rather than external forcing agents has primacy in generating and maintaining the underlying observed climatic variability. An understanding of the mechanisms and behaviour of such climatic features is becoming of increasing importance, in view of their possible role in modulating future climatic trends given the expected influence of the greenhouse effect.     

Diets of short-tailed shearwaters in the southeastern Bering Sea

In the late 1990s, the southeastern Bering Sea exhibited a number of anomalous conditions, including a major die-off of short-tailed shearwaters (Puffinus tenuirostris), a trans-equatorial migrant that constitutes a major portion of the marine bird biomass in the southeastern Bering Sea. As part of a larger study of the ecological role of the inner or structural front over the southeastern Bering Sea shelf, in 1997–1999, we collected short-tailed shearwaters to determine diet composition. In spring 1997, we found that short-tailed shearwaters were consuming predominately the euphausiid Thysanoessa raschii, a diet expected on the basis of past studies. However, in subsequent years, short-tailed shearwater diets in spring contained increasingly larger proportions of fish, in particular, sandlance (Ammodytes hexapterus), as well as other species of euphausiids (T. inermis in 1999). In summer and fall collections, short-tailed shearwater diets were more varied than in spring, and included both fish (age-0 gadids, 21–35% by weight) and a wider variety of euphausiid species (T. inermis and T. spinifera). In summer and fall, crab zoea (August 1998) and copepods (August 1999) were eaten by shearwaters collected while feeding within the inner front. Diets in 1997–1999 were broader than those found in previous studies of short-tailed shearwaters over the inner shelf and Bristol Bay, which had documented diets composed almost solely of T. raschii. Our data are consistent with the hypothesis that euphausiids were less available to short-tailed shearwaters foraging over the middle and coastal domains of the southeastern Bering Sea in 1997–1999 than has previously been true. Our results are also consistent with hypothesis that the inner front can affect the availability of prey to shearwaters.