Three-dimensional distributions of sewage markers in Tokyo Bay water--fluorescent whitening agents (FWAs)

Three-dimensional distributions of fluorescent whitening agents (FWAs: more specifically, DSBP and DAS1), which are sewage-derived water-soluble markers, were observed in Tokyo Bay water through multi-layer sampling of water at 20 locations. In summer, FWAs predominated in the surface layers, with trace but significant concentration of FWAs in bottom water due to stratification of seawater. In winter, on the other hand, FWAs were extensively mixed into the bottom layers because of the vertical mixing of seawater. In the surface layer, FWA concentrations and the DSBP/DAS1 ratio (the concentration ratio of DSBP to DAS1) were lower in summer than in winter, suggesting more efficient photodegradation of FWAs in euphotic zones during the summer due to stronger solar radiation. Horizontally, FWAs were widely distributed over the surface layer of Tokyo Bay. Surface water with DSBP concentrations above 50ng/L, corresponding to <200 times dilution of sewage effluent, was found to have spread up to 10km from the coastline. In addition, an offshore decline in FWA concentrations was observed, showing a half-distance of 10-20km. The decrease was caused by dilution by seawater of fresh water containing FWAs. The eastern part of the bay was different with respect to surface layers, with higher concentrations seen in northeastern parts. Furthermore, dispersion of combined sewer overflow (CSO)-derived water mass was observed in Tokyo Bay after heavy rain.     

Contextualizing other political ecologies: Japan's environmental aid to the Philippines

This paper argues for the utility of a focus on contextualized sources of environmental change to address the ever more diverse contexts of political ecology. In order to overcome the conventional approach to contextual sources that has tended to be analytically one‐dimensional and limited, I seek to provide a more nuanced account, notably by examining the neglected case of green aid of a nonwestern aid donor, Japan. Using conceptual tools that are both conjuncture‐based and multiscalar, the paper examines the way in which a post‐Rio international policy drive to promote so called green aid during the 1990s was translated into and conditioned by the historically and geographically specific contexts of Japan and the aid recipient featured herein, the Philippines. This focus on contextual sources helps to elucidate (i) how the ambiguous nature of international aid criteria combined together with Japan's own domestic political economy to render problematic an ostensibly environmental project, (ii) the manner in which neoliberal economic restructuring was translated into one of Japan's key policy initiatives in the 1990s and formed the backdrop to the specific aid case project discussed here, (iii) how Japan's environmental aid process in the Philippines was shaped through a repoliticization of various green discourses, and (iv) how the complex dynamics among stakeholders ended up compromising the very nature of the case study project.     

Bringing the other into political ecology: Reflecting on preoccupations in a research field

For all its vitality political ecology often appears to be a project in which work by Anglo‐Americans in particular, if it is not privileged, certainly predominates. This trend reflects wider language and intellectual tendencies in human geography and the social sciences that distort the development of the field by downplaying or obscuring the contributions of many non‐Anglo‐Americans and by naturalizing Anglo‐American assumptions at the heart of research. The latter in turn determine what constitutes ‘good’ work – even as there is no single definition of political ecology. Arguing against this tendency, this paper draws on postcolonial thinking to emphasize the need to reassess and reorient the field as ‘other’ political ecologies are feasible and desirable.     

Assessment of the changes in extreme vulnerability over East Asia due to global warming

A number of indices have been employed to describe weather extremes on the basis of climate regimes and public concerns. In this study, we combined these traditional indices into four groups according to whether they relate to warm (T_warm), cold (T_cold), wet (P_wet), or dry (P_dry) extremes. Analysis of the combined indices calculated for the daily temperatures and precipitation at 750 meteorological stations in Korea, China, and Japan for 1960s?C2000s shows increasing trends in T_warm and P_dry events and decreasing trends in T_cold events in recent decades, particularly in the northern part of East Asia. A notable regional variation is an increase in the P_wet events in the Korean Peninsula. We applied the same analysis to a 200-year global climate model simulation for 1900?C2099 using the National Center for Atmospheric Research-Community Climate System Model 3. During the 20th century, the changes in T_warm and T_cold calculated from the model data are largely consistent with those calculated from the observations, especially in northern East Asia. The model projections for the 21st century indicate statistically significant increasing T_warm and decreasing T_cold trends in extreme events over the region. Results obtained from historical archives and model simulations using our combined weather extreme indices suggest that northern East Asia will be subject to increased warm and dry extremes and the Korea Peninsula will experience more wet extremes.     

Effects of high-resolution land cover and topography on local circulations in two different coastal regions of Korea: a numerical modeling study

The effects of high-resolution land cover (LC) and topography (TP) on coastal wind circulations were evaluated in two different coastal regions of Korea (i.e. a southwestern coast (SWC), including a fairly complex coastline and a number of islands, and an eastern coast (EC), including a simple coastline with high mountains) during spring 2007. These analyses were performed based on a numerical modeling approach, using data sets with different resolutions, such as the LC and TP from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS-LC and USGS-TP: a 900-m resolution), the LC from the Environmental Geographic Information System (EGIS-LC: a 90-m), and the TP from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM-TP: a 90-m). The combined effects of the LC and TP on the spatial distributions of the coastal winds in the SWC region during the day were somewhat higher than those of the EC region, mainly due to the daytime land surface warming or the extension of the coastal area resulting from changes in the LC. At night, the effects of the EC region were more apparent along the coastline and adjacent sea. From the correlation analyses, the effect of the LC on the vertical wind distributions on land during the day was higher in the SWC region than in the EC region and vice versa for the effect of the TP. In particular, large effects of the LC and TP occurred in the EC region at night and at sea due to the differences in the surface conditions and elevations resulting from the changes in the LC and TP, respectively. In addition, the circulation of coastal winds from the near surface to the upper levels occurred at a relatively high elevation in the EC region (about 1,500?m) relative to the SWC region (about 600?m).     

Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere Winter

The seasonal prediction skill for the Northern Hemisphere winter is assessed using retrospective predictions (1982–2010) from the ECMWF System 4 (Sys4) and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) CFS version 2 (CFSv2) coupled atmosphere–ocean seasonal climate prediction systems. Sys4 shows a cold bias in the equatorial Pacific but a warm bias is found in the North Pacific and part of the North Atlantic. The CFSv2 has strong warm bias from the cold tongue region of the eastern Pacific to the equatorial central Pacific and cold bias in broad areas over the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. A cold bias in the Southern Hemisphere is common in both reforecasts. In addition, excessive precipitation is found in the equatorial Pacific, the equatorial Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in Sys4, and in the South Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in CFSv2. A dry bias is found for both modeling systems over South America and northern Australia. The mean prediction skill of 2 meter temperature (2mT) and precipitation anomalies are greater over the tropics than the extra-tropics and also greater over ocean than land. The prediction skill of tropical 2mT and precipitation is greater in strong El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) winters than in weak ENSO winters. Both models predict the year-to-year ENSO variation quite accurately, although sea surface temperature trend bias in CFSv2 over the tropical Pacific results in lower prediction skill for the CFSv2 relative to the Sys4. Both models capture the main ENSO teleconnection pattern of strong anomalies over the tropics, the North Pacific and the North America. However, both models have difficulty in forecasting the year-to-year winter temperature variability over the US and northern Europe.     

Recent and future sea surface temperature trends in tropical pacific warm pool and cold tongue regions

Using coral data, sea surface temperature (SST) reanalysis data, and Climate Model Intercomparison Project III (CMIP3) data, we analyze 20th-century and future warm pool and cold tongue SST trends. For the last 100?years, a broad La Nina-like SST trend, in which the warming trend of the warm pool SST is greater than that of the cold tongue SST, has appeared in reanalysis SST data sets, 20C scenario experiments of the CMIP3 data and less significantly in coral records. However, most Coupled General Circulation Models subjected to scenarios of future high greenhouse gas concentrations produce larger SST warming trends in cold tongues than in warm pools, resembling El Nino-like SST patterns. In other words, warmer tropical climate conditions correspond to stronger El Nino-like response. Heat budget analyses further verify that warmer tropical climates diminish the role of the ocean’s dynamic thermostat, which currently regulates cold tongue temperatures. Therefore, the thermodynamic thermostat, whose efficiency depends on the mean temperature, becomes the main regulator (particularly via evaporative cooling) of both warm pool and cold tongue temperatures in future warm climate conditions. Thus, the warming tendency of the cold tongue SST may lead that of the warm pool SST in near future.     

Effects of the low-frequency zonal wind variation on the high frequency atmospheric variability over the tropics

Recently, there is increasing evidence on the interaction of atmospheric high-frequency (HF) variability with climatic low-frequency (LF) variability. In this study, we examine this relationship of HF variability with large scale circulation using idealized experiments with an aqua-planet Atmospheric GCM (with zonally uniform SST), run in different zonal momentum forcing scenarios. The effect of large scale circulation changes to the HF variability is demonstrated here. The HF atmospheric variability is enhanced over the westerly forced region, through easterly vertical shear. Our study also manifests that apart from the vertical wind shear, strong low-level convergence and horizontal zonal wind shear are also important for enhancing the HF variance. This is clearly seen in the eastern part of the forcing, where the HF activity shows relatively maximum increase, in spite of similar vertical shear over the forced regions. The possible implications for multi-scale interaction (e.g. MJO–ENSO interaction) are also discussed.     

Ocean–atmosphere coupling and the boreal winter MJO

The influence of ocean–atmosphere coupling on the simulation and prediction of the boreal winter Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is examined using the Seoul National University coupled general circulation model (CGCM) and atmospheric—only model (AGCM). The AGCM is forced with daily SSTs interpolated from pentad mean CGCM SSTs. Forecast skill is examined using serial extended simulations spanning 26 different winter seasons with 30-day forecasts commencing every 5 days providing a total of 598 30-day simulations. By comparing both sets of experiments, which share the same atmospheric components, the influence of coupled ocean–atmosphere processes on the simulation and prediction of MJO can be studied. The mean MJO intensity possesses more realistic amplitude in the CGCM than in AGCM. In general, the ocean–atmosphere coupling acts to improve the simulation of the spatio-temporal evolution of the eastward propagating MJO and the phase relationship between convection (OLR) and SST over the equatorial Indian Ocean and the western Pacific. Both the CGCM and observations exhibit a near-quadrature relationship between OLR and SST, with the former lagging by about two pentads. However, the AGCM shows a less realistic phase relationship. As the initial conditions are the same in both models, the additional forcing by SST anomalies in the CGCM extends the prediction skill beyond that of the AGCM. To test the applicability of the CGCM to real-time prediction, we compute the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index and compared it with the index computed from observations. RMM1 (RMM2) falls away rapidly to 0.5 after 17–18 (15–16) days in the AGCM and 18–19 (16–17) days in the CGCM. The prediction skill is phase dependent in both the CGCM and AGCM.