Trends in Extreme Mean Sea Level Quantiles from Satellite Altimetry

Satellite altimetry allows the study of sea-level long-term variability on a global and spatially uniform basis. Here quantile regression is applied to derive robust median regression trends of mean sea level as well as trends in extreme quantiles from radar altimetry time series. In contrast with ordinary least squares regression, which only provides an estimate on the rate of change of the mean of data distribution, quantile regression allows the estimation of trends at different quantiles of the data distribution, yielding a more complete picture of long-term variability. Trends derived from basin-wide averaged regional mean sea level time series are robust and similar for all quantiles, indicating that all parts of the data distribution are changing at the same rate. In contrast, trends are not robust and diverge across quantiles in the case of local time series. Trends are under- (over-)estimated in the western (eastern) equatorial Pacific. Furthermore, trends in the lowermost quantile (0.05) are larger than the median trend in the western Pacific, while trends in the uppermost quantile (0.95) are lower than the median trend in the eastern Pacific. These differences in trends in extreme mean sea level quantiles are explained by the exceptional effect of the strong 1997–1998 El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event.     

Pitfalls in Nonlinear Inversion

— We discuss and illustrate graphically with simple 2-D problems, four common pitfalls in geophysical nonlinear inversion. The first one establishes that the Lagrange multiplier, used to incorporate a priori information in the geophysical inverse problem, should be the largest value still compatible with a reasonable data fitting. This procedure should be used only when the interpreter is sure about the importance of the a priori information used to stabilize the inverse problem relative to the geophysical observations. Because this is rarely the case, the user should use the smallest Lagrange multiplier still producing stable solutions. The second pitfall is an attempt to automatically estimate the Lagrange multiplier by decreasing it along the iterative process used to solve the nonlinear optimization problem. Consequently, at the last iteration, the Lagrange multiplier may be so small that the problem may become ill-posed and any computed solution in this case is meaningless. The third pitfall is related to the incorporation of a priori information by a technique known as “Jumping.” This formulation, from the viewpoint of the class of Acceptable Gradient Methods, is incomplete and may lead to a premature halt in the iteration, and, consequently, to solutions far from the true one. Finally, the fourth pitfall is an inadequate convergence criterion which stops the iteration when the data misfit drops just below the noise level, irrespective of the fact that the functional to be minimized may not have attained its minimum. This means that the a priori information has not been completely incorporated, so that this stopping criterion partially neutralizes the effect of the stabilizing functional, and opens the possibility of obtaining unstable, meaningless estimates.     

Evaluating simulated daily discharge for operational hydrological drought monitoring in the Global Drought Observatory (GDO)

ABSTRACT

Hydrological drought is currently underrepresented in global monitoring systems, mainly due the shortage of near real-time estimates of river discharge at the global scale. In this study, the outputs of the Lisflood model are used to define a low-flow drought index, which shows a good correspondence with long-term records of the Global Runoff Data Centre in the period 1980–2014, as well as with verified information from the literature on six major drought events (covering different regions and watershed sizes). In contrast, the near real-time simulation (from 2015 onward) provides temporally inconsistent estimates over about 20% of the modelled cells (mostly over South America and Central Africa), even if reasonable results are obtained over other regions, as confirmed by intercomparison with the operational outcomes of the European Drought Observatory for the 2018 drought. In spite of the highlighted limitations, valuable information for operational drought monitoring can be retrieved from these simulations.     

Occurrence and Resistance of Pathogenic Bacteria Along the Tietê River Downstream of São Paulo in Brazil

The load of pathogenic bacteria, their fate and their dangerousness in the Tietê River were assessed along 100 km starting from the city of São Paulo, Brazil. The data were compared with those from two German rivers. High loads of pathogens were found in the Tietê River near the city of São Paulo (Escherichia coli O157:H7, Shigella flexneri, and Shigella boydii), which were absent 30 km downstream of São Paulo. The antibiotic resistances observed in the Tietê river were rather low and decreased after the major input in São Paulo to significantly lower levels about 30 km downstream. While the Brazilian isolates were more susceptible for ampicillin than the German ones, the reverse was observed for gentamycin. For optimal control of infections in humans critical areas where these bacteria survived longer and their elimination mechanisms should be identified as well as the extent and the origin of antibiotic resistance should be determined.     

Petrological And Geochemical Characteristics Of The Granulitic Terrain Of Brejses, Bahia, Brazil

New petrological and geochemical characteristics of the Brejtes region, situated in the south of Bahia, Brazil are discussed. The region forms a part of the most important and extensive granulite facies terrain in Brazil of Archean/Paleoproterozoic age. Five groups of rock types all equilibrated in the granulite facies are identified in this region. They are: i) supracrustal and related rocks, ii) undifferentiated granulites, iii) hornblende bearing enderbite-charnockites, iv) hornblende free enderbite-charnockites, v) charnockites. The first group appears to be the oldest in the region as they form enclaves in the 2.9 Ga old undifferentiated granulites. The third and fourth group are enderbite-charnockites, whose protoliths constitute two series of calc-alkaline rocks, one titanium poor (hornblende free) and another titanium rich (hornblende bearing). U/Pb zircon SHRIMP dates indicate ages of formation at 2.81 Ga (hornblende free) and 2.69 Ga (hornblende bearing) for the two groups. The fifth group of rocks have charnockitic affinity and are present in the center of the Brejtes Dome. These rocks are also have calc-alkaline affinity, but show petrographic and geochemical characteristics distinct from those of other groups. Preliminary geochronological investigations by zircon Pb-Pb evaporation method yielded 2.6 Ga and 2.0 Ga for the charnockites from the inner core of the Brejtes Dome. These age data suggest that the circular structure was formed by the re-fusion of the 2.6 Ga old deep crustal material generating younger charnockites at 2.0 Ga.     

Evidence for Chemical Heterogeneity in the Nucleus of C/1995 O1 (Hale–Bopp)

We present an analysis of OH, CN, and C₂ jets observed in thecoma of Comet Hale–Bopp on UT April 22, 23, and 25, 1997. Monte Carlomodels designed to simulate the gas jets were employed to analyze thenuclear active areas responsible for the observed coma gas jets. Ourresults indicate that four active areas are necessary to reproduce theCN and C₂ jets while five active areas are required to simulatethe OH jets. The additional OH active area must produce significantlevels of OH, but cannot emit measurable quantities of either carbonradical. This difference suggests that the nucleus of Comet Hale–Boppis chemically heterogeneous.     

Characterization of a chalcopyrite from Brazil by Mössbauer spectroscopy and other physicochemical techniques

We studied a chalcopyrite from a Cu ore deposit in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, by Mössbauer spectroscopy at room temperature and 110 K. Supporting methods to check for sample purity and to characterize further sample properties were slow-scanning X-ray powder diffraction and optical and microprobe analyses of polished sections of selected grains. Chemical analyses obtained using a scanning electron microscope equipped with an energy-dispersive X-ray spectrometer showed the sample to consist of homogeneous and essentially stoichiometric chalcopyrite (CuFeS₂). Mössbauer spectra taken at both the above temperatures consist of asymmetric magnetically ordered patterns with unequal intensities of the line pairs 1–6 and 2–5, pointing to the existence of non-equivalent or multiple Fe sites. Least-squares fittings evidenced that the resonance intensity ratio of subspectrum with lower quadrupole shift (indicative of a more symmetric environment) to that with higher shift is 69:31, at room temperature, and 68:32, at 110 K. Rietveld refinement of the XRD data indicates the existence of tetragonal [a = 0.52855(1) and c = 1.0412(1) nm] and cubic [a ₀ = 0.5273(2) nm] modifications in a proportion of 74:26, in good agreement with the Mössbauer data. The saturation magnetization of the sample was 32.7 J/(T kg), confirming the oxidation state of Fe as trivalent and pointing to little to no spin canting.     

Seismic risk assessment and hazard mapping in Nepal

Natural Hazards - Seismic risk in the form of impending disaster has been seen from past records that moderate-to-large earthquakes have caused the loss of life and property in all parts of Nepal....     

Near Infrared Spectra of two Asteroids with low Tisserand Invariant

We present near infrared reflectance spectra from 0.8 to 2.5 μm of two asteroids with low Tisserand invariant, 1373 Cincinnati and 2906 Caltech. We compare our spectra with cometary nuclei and other asteroids in their class. Asteroids Cincinnati and Caltech have Tisserand invariant values of 2.72 and 2.97, respectively, values less than 3 are considered suggestive of cometary origin. The observed spectral slopes in the near-infrared are consistent with both the spectra of cometary nuclei and of primitive asteroids. However, both asteroids have features in the near-infrared that are not seen in cometary nuclei, but are present in other X-type asteroids. 1373 Cincinnati has a sharp slope change between 0.75 and 1.0 μm and 2906 Caltech has a broad and shallow absorption between 1.35 and 2.2 μm. Our attempts to model the visible and near-infrared spectrum of these two objects, with the components successfully used by Emery and Brown (2004, Icarus 164, 104–121) to fit Trojan asteroids, did not yield acceptable fits.Visiting Astronomer at the Infrared Telescope Facility, which is operated by the University of Hawaii under contract to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.