末次间冰期亚洲中部干旱区干湿变化的模拟研究

利用国际古气候模拟对比计划第四阶段的多模式结果,分析了末次间冰期亚洲中部干旱区的干湿变化及机制。多模式集合平均结果表明,末次间冰期亚洲中部干旱区年降水减少0.7%,其中中亚地区的年降水减少2.8%,新疆地区年降水增加1.8%。水汽收支方程表明,末次间冰期中亚地区在雨季(冬春季)的降水变化主要与垂直动力项有关,新疆地区在雨季(夏季)的降水变化主要与垂直动力与热力项有关。此外,基于Penman-Montieth方法计算的亚洲中部干旱区的干旱指数在末次间冰期减小约10.2%,表明末次间冰期亚洲中部干旱区气候明显变干且存在旱区扩张的现象,这主要受到潜在蒸散变化的调控。潜在蒸散的增加进一步受到有效能量增加与地面风速增大的调控。本研究从模拟的角度揭示了末次间冰期亚洲中部干旱区干湿变化的可能特征及机制,在一定程度上有助于理解旱区气候在增暖情景下对轨道参数的响应特征。     

主编寄语

六十载风雨兼程,春华秋实。从1960年到2020年,南京信息工程大学(南信大)走过了极不平凡的、光辉灿烂的发展历程,为我国和世界大气科学的发展和人才培养做出了卓著的贡献,并写在了每个南信大人的优秀业绩中,写在了祖国的大地上,写在了人民的口碑里。这其中,倾注了无数南信大人的智慧和汗水,也成就了数万学子的理想和事业。为庆祝南信大建校60周年,《大气科学学报》决定组织出版这本特刊。     

滑坡泥石流大尺度统计预报模型的实时检验

利用滑坡敏感性分布和降雨阈值公式建立了一个滑坡泥石流统计模型,该模型可以用于中国大尺度范围内的滑坡泥石流预警。使用CMORPH卫星降水驱动该统计模型,对2016—2017年的106起滑坡泥石流事件进行了验证分析。结果表明,该模型能较好地预警大多数滑坡泥石流事件,其中对72. 1%的雨季滑坡泥石流事件能较好预警,但对非雨季的事件只有35%能较好预警,对雨季的预警效果明显优于非雨季。由于滑坡泥石流主要发生在雨季,因此该模型总体上具有较好的效能。该模型对于强降雨引发的快速滑坡事件具有较好的预警能力,但对于由强度较小、持续时间较长的降雨引发的慢过程滑坡事件的预警效果有待提升。利用该统计模型以及CMORPH实时卫星降水产品,可以建立滑坡泥石流大尺度实时预警系统,对滑坡泥石流减灾防灾具有一定意义。     

The Contribution of Opal-Associated Phosphorus to Bioavailable Phosphorus in Surface and Core Sediments in the East China Sea

To improve the burial flux calculations of bioavailable phosphorus(P) and study opal-associated P(Opal-P) in the East China Sea(ECS), surface and core sediments were collected in the Changjiang Estuary(CE) and the south of the Cheju Island. In this study, sedimentary P was operationally divided into seven different forms using modified sedimentary extraction(SEDEX) technique: LSor-P(exchangeable or loosely sorbed P), Fe-P(easily reducible or reactive ferric Fe-bound P), CFA-P(authigenic carbonate fluorapatite and biogenic apatite and CaCO_3-bound P), Detr-P(detrital apatite), Org-P(organic P), Opal-P and Ref-P(refractory P). The data revealed that the concentrations of the seven different P forms rank as Detr-P CFA-P Org-P Ref-P Opal-P Fe-P LSor-P in surface sediments and CFA-P Detr-P Org-P Ref-P Fe-P Opal-P LSor-P in core sediments. The distributions of the total phosphorus(TP), TIP, CFA-P, Detr-P are similar and decrease from the CE to the south of the Cheju Island. Meanwhile, Org-P and Opal-P exhibit different distribution trends; this may be affected by the grain size and TOM. The concentrations of potentially bioavailable P are 9.6-13.0 μmol g~(-1) and 10.0-13.6 μmol g~(-1), representing 61%-70% and 41%-64% of the TP in surface and core sediments, respectively. The concentrations of Opal-P are 0.6-2.3 μmol g~(-1) and 0.6-1.4 μmol g~(-1) in surface and core sediments, accounting for 5.3%-19.8% and 4.2%-10.6% of bioavailable P, respectively. The total burial fluxes of Opal-P and bioavailable P are 1.4×10~9 mol yr~(-1) and 1.1×10~10 mol yr~(-1) in the ECS, respectively. Opal-P represents about 12.7% of potentially bioavailable P, which should be recognized when studying P cycling in marine ecosystems.     

北极王湾夏季海水中DMSP降解基因的丰度及分布调查

作为海洋中最丰富的有机含硫化合物之一,二甲基巯基丙酸内盐(DMSP)不仅在浮游植物细胞内具有重要的生理生化及生态功能,同时也是海洋微生物的重要营养物,其分解产物二甲基硫(DMS)还是海洋中最重要的还原态挥发性生源有机硫化物,因此DMSP的代谢在全球硫循环中扮演着重要角色。细菌可通过脱甲基与裂解这两条途径降解海水中的DMSP,从而决定硫元素是以含硫蛋白形式进入微生物食物网还是以DMS形式进入大气。截至目前,在高纬度北极海域开展的有关细菌降解DMSP的相关研究报道很少。本文采用荧光定量PCR技术,首次对北极王湾夏季(2015及2016年)海水中涉及细菌降解DMSP的两条主要代谢途径中的脱甲基酶基因dmdA及裂解酶基因dddP的丰度及分布进行了检测。结果显示, 2015—2016年海水中DMSP降解酶基因(dmdA、dddP)与细菌16S rRNA基因的丰度比值的平均值分别为0.25%±0.31%、0.32%±0.58%。2015年水样中,除K5站位的dddP基因之外,表层水中dmdA及dddP的丰度相对值从湾口至湾内均呈递增趋势。但2016年的结果却显示出很大差异:湾口附近dmdA基因丰度相对值总体高于湾内;表层水中的dddP基因丰度相对值变化趋势不明显,而深层水中dddP基因丰度相对值从湾口到湾内总体呈递减趋势。本次研究的结果初步表明,含有DMSP降解基因的浮游细菌在王湾夏季水体中丰度很低,而且参与不同代谢途径的DMSP降解菌在海水中的时空分布存在很大变化。对于王湾水域中细菌参与DMSP分解代谢及其在当地硫元素循环中的生态地位的进一步认识,尚待后续研究工作的深入开展。     

用平均云量图分析太平洋热带辐合带

本文用月平均卫星云量图揭示了太平洋上热带辐合带的基本气候特征。西太平洋热带辐合带的位置和强度有明显的季节变化,并且有双辐合带结构。而东太平洋热带辐合带则始终稳定在5—8°N附近,季节变化很小。东西太平洋的这种差异可能与海洋热状况有关。同时,西太平洋热带辐合带又有明显的年际变动,它对台风活动有一定的影响。 1984年8月18日      

气温和降水时变影响参数的多步预测模型

本文提出了一种气温和降水时变影响参数的多步预测建模新方案。该方案用时间序列均生函数外延矩阵生成的主分量作基函数对序变量建模，同时考虑变量前期数据对后期数据的影响，在模型中引入一个时变影响参数Ｋ１。并用方差分析法求出Ｋ１的显著周期和未来时刻的Ｋ１＋１值，从而建立气温和降水序列的时变影响参数的多步预测模型。该模型用于四川省２０个地、市的气温和降水预报数值试验，其历史拟合率和试报结果与实况值的比较表明，     

Evaluation of East Asian climatology as simulated by seven coupled models

Using observation and reanaiysis data throughout 1961-1990, the East Asian surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure climatology as simulated by seven fully coupled atmosphere-ocean models, namely CCSR/NIES, CGCM2, CSIRO-Mk2, ECHAM4/OPYC3, GFDL-R30, HadCM3, and NCARPCM, axe systematically evaluated in this study. It is indicated that the above models can successfully reproduce the annual and seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation climatology in East Asia, with relatively good performance for boreal autumn and annual mean. The models‘ ability to simulate surface air temperature is more reliable than precipitation. In addition, the models can dependably capture the geographical distribution pattern of annual, boreal winter, spring and autumn sea level pressure in East Asia. In contrast, relatively large simulation errors axe displayed when simulated boreal summer sea level pressure is compaxed with reanalysis data in East Asia. It is revealed that the simulation errors for surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure axe generally large over and around the Tibetan Plateau. No individual model is best in every aspect. As a whole, the ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HadCM3 performances axe much better, whereas the CGCM2 is relatively poorer in East Asia. Additionally, the seven-model ensemble mean usually shows a relatively high reliability.     

The hindcast of winter and spring Arctic and Antarctic Oscillation with the coupied climate models

研究评估了耦合气候模式对冬、春季北极涛动(AO)和南极涛动(AAO)的预测效能.结果表明,模式对于北极涛动和南极涛动的模拟能力都是比较强的,其中,对冬季的模拟能力要强于春季.冬季,几乎所有的模式都能很好地模拟出对流层内北极涛动的空间分布形态特点,空间相关系数很高.春季,大部分模式的模拟结果仍然是比较好,与再分析资料结果的空间相关性比较高.对于南极涛动,模式在全年对流层各个层次上都能比较好地刻画其空间分布,且模式在850 hPa等压面上的空间模拟效能要稍强于海平面.相对来说,冬季的模拟效果也稍强于其他季节,但是,差异不显著,模式与模式的差别也比较小.另外,模式对于北极涛动和南极涛动的时间序列模拟能力有限,时间序列相关系数只有少数几个模式达到显著性水平.     

Dust Storms in North China in 2002： A Case Study of the Low Frequency Oscillation

The low frequency oscillation in both hemispheres and its possible role in the dust weather storm events over North China in 2002 are analyzed as a case study. Results show that the Aleutian Low is linked with the Circumpolar Vortex in the Southern Hemisphere on a 30-60-day oscillation, with a weak Circumpolar Vortex tending to deepen the Aleutian Low which may be helpful for the generation of dust storm events. The possible mechanism behind this is the inter-hemispheric interaction of the mean meridional circulation, with the major variability over East Asia. The zonal mean westerly wind at high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in the upper level troposphere may lead that of the Northern Hemisphere, which then impacts the local circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. Thus, the low frequency oscillation teleconnection is one possible linkage in the coupling between the Southern Hemisphere circulation and dust events over North China. However, the interannual variation of the low frequency oscillation is unclear.