多家数值产品沿海大暴雨预报性能检验

2010年8月4-5日和2010年8月21-22日两次天气过程都是在副热带高压外围产生的沿海大暴雨天气,利用多种资料,重点针对基层气象台(站)常用的几家数值模式产品,对两次暴雨过程从环流形势、影响系统、降水量要素等方面进行检验分析.结果表明:各家数值模式产品对暴雨定量预报有一定的预报能力,但降雨量级普遍偏小,对强降水中心的预报稳定性较差;在降水量级上,EC模式预报较准确,具有较高的参考价值.对产生暴雨天气影响系统位置和强度的预报,不同的数值模式有所差异;对西太平洋副热带高压的预报,T639模式和EC模式各时效预报脊点位置跟实况场一致,但强度较实况偏弱;但对高空槽和切变线的预报跟实况都有一定的偏差.因此在暴雨预报中需要在参考数值预报的基础上,结合强对流工具、实况加密资料、物理量场、相似个例和经验外推等其他辅助手段提高暴雨站点预报准确率,从而提升灾害性天气服务的效果.     

Relationship between Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Energy and Eurasian Winter Cold Events

The profound impact of solar irradiance variations on the decadal variability of Earth' s climate has been investigated by previous studies.However,it remains a challenge to quantify the energetic particle precipitation(EPP) influence on the surface climate,which is an emerging research topic.The solar wind is a source of magnetospheric EPP,and the total energy input from the solar wind into Earth' s magnetosphere(E_(in)) shows remarkable interdecadal and interannual variability.B ased on the new E_(in) index,this study reveals a significant interannual relationship between the annual mean E_(in)and Eurasian cold extremes in the subsequent winter.Less frequent cold events are observed over Eurasia(primarily north of 50°N) following the higher-than-normal E_(in) activity in the previous year,accompanied by more frequent cold events over northern Africa,and vice versa.This response pattern shows great resemblance to the first empirical orthogonal function of the variability of cold extremes over Eurasia,with a spatial correlation coefficient of 0.79.The pronounced intensification of the positive North Atlantic Oscillation events and poleward shift of the North Atlantic storm track associated with the anomalously higher E_(in) favor the anomalous extreme atmospheric circulation events,and thus less frequent extreme cold temperatures over northern Eurasia on the interannual time scale.It is further hypothesized that the wave-mean flow interaction in the stratosphere and troposphere is favorable for the connection of E_(in) signals to tropospheric circulation and climate in the following winter.     

Variation in Principal Modes of Midsummer Precipitation over Northeast China and Its Associated Atmospheric Circulation

This study documents the first two principal modes of interannual variability of midsummer precipitation over Northeast China(NEC) and their associated atmospheric circulation anomalies. It is shown that the first principal mode exhibits the largest amount of variability in precipitation over the south of NEC(referred to as the south mode), whereas the second principal mode behaves with the greatest precipitation anomaly over the north of NEC(referred to as the north mode). Further findings reveal that, through modulating moisture transportation and upper-and lower-troposphere divergence circulation as well as vertical movement over NEC, the anomalous northwestern Pacific anticyclone and the anticyclone centered over northern NEC exert the dominant influence on the south and north modes, respectively. Additionally, it is quantitatively estimated that water vapor across the southern boundary of NEC dominates the moisture budget for the south mode, while the north mode has a close connection with moisture through NEC's northern and western boundaries. Furthermore, the north(south) mode is strongly related to the intensity(meridional shift) of the East Asian westerly jet.     

Impacts of the Autumn Arctic Sea Ice on the Intraseasonal Reversal of the Winter Siberian High

During 1979–2015, the intensity of the Siberian high(SH) in November and December–January(DJ) is frequently shown to have an out-of-phase relationship, which is accompanied by opposite surface air temperature and circulation anomalies.Further analyses indicate that the autumn Arctic sea ice is important for the phase reversal of the SH. There is a significantly positive(negative) correlation between the November(DJ) SH and the September sea ice area(SIA) anomalies. It is suggested that the reduction of autumn SIA induces anomalous upward surface turbulent heat flux(SHF), which can persist into November, especially over the Barents Sea. Consequently, the enhanced eddy energy and wave activity flux are transported to mid and high latitudes. This will then benefit the development of the storm track in northeastern Europe. Conversely, when downward SHF anomalies prevail in DJ, the decreased heat flux and suppressed eddy energy hinder the growth of the storm track during DJ over the Barents Sea and Europe. Through the eddy–mean flow interaction, the strengthened(weakened)storm track activities induce decreased(increased) Ural blockings and accelerated(decelerated) westerlies, which makes the cold air from the Arctic inhibited(transported) over the Siberian area. Therefore, a weaker(stronger) SH in November(DJ) occurs downstream. Moreover, anomalously large snowfall may intensify the SH in DJ rather than in November. The ensemble-mean results from the CMIP5 historical simulations further confirm these connections. The different responses to Arctic sea ice anomalies in early and middle winter set this study apart from earlier ones.     

基于神经网络B—P算法的雹云识别模型及其效果检验

本文根据成都、内江和泸州等地的雷达回波和部分探空资料，应用神经网络Ｂ－Ｐ算法建立了不同地区的３参数和４参数雹云识别模型，并对模型进行了分析和效果检验。结果表明：该模型不仅能得到较高的拟合率和预报准确率，而且由于Ｂ－Ｐ网络具有自组织，自学习和自适应的能力，与其它方法相比具有一定的优越性。     

浅谈企业如何增强凝聚力

一个企业要发展,必须要有自己的人力资源优势。而吸引优秀的人力资源,必须建立以人为本的人力资源管理政策,一个优秀企业应从职业生涯规划、员工培训与发展、绩效考评、薪酬激励、关注心理需求等五个与员工切身利益方面进行规划以此增强企业的凝聚力。     

智能煤层瓦斯含量快速预测系统

针对现有煤层瓦斯含量预测过程中数据记录、处理设备存在的多种不足,研究了原有曲线拟合方法的误差产生原因。利用大量数学建模计算,通过两种曲线拟合算法优化,并综合考虑现场测试需求,完成了智能煤层瓦斯含量快速测定系统的上、下位机设计。其中下位机具有多组存储、时间设定、解吸速率曲线显示、逻辑推导、损失量拟合等多项功能。上位机通过基于VC++的程序设计完成了包括界面开发、数据库多功能查询以及拟合算法处理等多项功能。结果表明,智能系统在可操作性和数据拟合准确性方面都有了很大提高。      

Late Cretaceous Transpressional Fault System: A Case Study of the Yishu Fault Belt, Shandong Province, Eastern China

On the basis of field observations of the structures of three profiles from the Linshu region, deformation characteristics and the tectonic background of the Yishu fault belt in the Late Cretaceous–Early Cenozoic have been discussed in detail.Three structural profiles, whose deformations consist mainly of earlier transpressional faults and later normal faults, were developed for the Mengtuan Formation of the Lower Cretaceous Dasheng Group.Typical positive flower structures, duplex structures, and break-through faults were found in these profiles.On the basis of analyses of the structural deformation and previous geochronological studies, it was concluded that the earlier transpressional faults of the profiles were triggered by the sinistral transpression of the Yishu fault belt in the Late Cretaceous–Early Paleogene, and that the later normal faults, formed during the Late Paleogene–Neogene extension, truncated the earlier transpressional faults.With consideration of the tectonic evolution of the Tan-Lu fault belt and the different drift directions of the Pacific plate since the Cretaceous, we suggest that the major tectonic events of the Late Cretaceous–Neogene in eastern China were mainly controlled by the subduction of the Pacific plate.     

中国北方地区构造体系控盆作用与控油分布规律

在应用地质力学方法系统划分中国北方地区含油气盆地构造体系的基础上,开展构造体系控盆、控油气源区、控油气聚集带、地应力控制油气、低次序扭动构造控制油气田研究。研究结果表明,中国北方地区主要发育新华夏系、西域系、纬向系、祁吕贺兰山字型等构造体系,控制了塔里木盆地、鄂尔多斯盆地、松辽盆地等大型含油气盆地的成生发展。构造体系具有六个特征:阶段性、迁移性、继承性、差异性、转换性和复杂性。构造体系在多个方面控制油气分布,包括构造体系多级控制油气、构造体系叠加控制油气、构造体系复合联合控制油气、构造体系多期控制油气、低序次扭动构造控制油气田分布等。以构造体系控油为主线,综合考虑油气成藏条件,指出了油气聚集有利区。在优选的有利区中相继获得了新的油气重大突破和发现,证实构造体系控油研究及油气聚集有利区预测的科学性、准确性。这些有利区也是今后较长时期内油气勘探的主要目标。