基于Copula函数的中国东部季风区干旱风险研究

利用1961~2016年的中国地面降水月值0.5°×0.5°格网数据集计算了中国东部季风区不同时间尺度的标准化降水指数,并结合游程理论识别气象干旱事件。常规的单变量和基于Copula函数的双变量频率分析分别用来描述干旱事件的干旱历时和干旱烈度。结果表明：① 3个月时间尺度和6个月时间尺度的干旱特征空间格局非常相似,但与12个月时间尺度的干旱特征空间格局差异较大;② 各时间尺度的干旱历时和干旱烈度均呈正相关,即具有较长干旱历时的地区往往也是干旱烈度较大的区域;③ 西南区、长江下游地区、黄淮海区北部和南部、内蒙古东部和黑龙江省东部干旱风险较高,而长白山地区、松嫩平原和珠江流域干旱风险较低。研究结果可为中国东部季风区的干旱区划及旱灾风险评估提供科学依据。     

Blooms of Prorocentrum donghaiense reduced the species diversity of dinoflagellate community

Most of reported harmful algal blooms(HABs)of microalgae(75%)have been caused by dinoflagellates.Studies on the negative effects of HABs have generally focused on animals,valuable organisms in particular,and environmental factors such as dissolved oxygen and nutrients,but relatively fewer on community level,particularly that using metagenomic approach.In this study,we reported an investigation on the effects of a HAB caused by the dinoflagellate Prorocentrum donghaiense on the species diversity and community structure of the dinoflagellate sub-community via a pyrosequencing approach for the samples taken before,during,and after the bloom season of P.donghaiense in the East China Sea.We sequenced partial 28S rRNA gene of dinoflagellates for the field samples and evaluated the species richness and diversity indices of the dinoflagellate community,as a sub-community of the total phytoplankton.We obtained 800185 valid sequences(categorized into 560 operational taxonomic units,OTUs)of dinoflagellates from 50 samples and found that the biodiversity of dinoflagellate community was significantly reduced during the blooming period in comparison to that in pre-and after-blooming periods,as reflected in the four diversity indices:the species richness expressed as the number of OTUs,Chao1 index,Shannon index(evenness),and Gini-Simpson index.These four indices were all found to be negatively correlated to the cell density of the bloom species P.donghaiense.Correlation analyses also revealed that the P.donghaiense cell abundance was correlated negatively with NO3--N,and NO2--N,but positively with total nitrogen(TN)and total phosphorus(TP).Principal coordinates analysis(PCoA)showed that the community structure of dinoflagellates was markedly different among the different sampling periods,while the redundancy analysis(RDA)revealed P.donghaiense abundance,salinity,NO3--N,and SiO32-were the most four significant factors shaping the dinoflagellate community structure.Our results together demonstrated that HABs caused by the dinoflagellate P.donghaiense could strongly impact the aquatic ecosystem on the sub-community level which the blooming species belongs to.     

Application of T-bar in numerical simulations of a monopile subjected to lateral cyclic load

A series of centrifuge tests were performed to investigate the response of a free-head monopile due to cyclic lateral loading in normally consolidated clay. By linking the maximum reaction-force point of the final cycles in all tests with various amplitudes, a postcyclic reaction-force curve is obtained, which can be used to assess the postcyclic remolded lateral stiffness. To numerically analyze the tests, a strength degradation model of the clay is calibrated by the T-bar cyclic test. However, this model is T-bar-dependent, which is unable to capture the degrading behavior of the monopile stiffness. Thus, a modification approach is proposed based on the upper bound theory, and the modified model is further combined with finite element analysis to simulate the cyclic behavior of the model pile. The simulation results show similar degrading trend and consistent postcyclic remolded lateral stiffness with the model tests. This further demonstrates that the remolded lateral stiffness mainly depends on the soil remolded strength, which is one of the parameters calibrated by the T-bar tests. Based on this finding, a simplified numerical analysis is proposed, which can predict the postcyclic reaction-force curve by performing one monotonic loading instead of modeling the whole process of cyclic loading.     

金属矿产资源的深部找矿、勘探与成矿的深层动力过程

世界上任何一个国家或地区,在科学与技术的进步,社会与经济的发展进程中,无一例外的必须以大量的,各种类型的金属矿产资源为后盾.当今我国正处在快速工业化和经济腾飞的前夜,国内矿产资源供给不足,且紧缺,故对外的依存度日益增大.为此,在多元化共享世界资源的同时,必须以本土资源为本,并迅速建立起安全、可靠与稳定供给的重要金属矿产战略后备基地.本文基于金属矿产资源形成和聚集的深部介质和构造环境,深层过程和动力学响应的新认识,并分析和讨论了国内、外已发现的深部金属矿床实例.据此提出:必须迅速强化进行地壳内部第二深度空间(500～2000 m)高精度地球物理找矿、勘探和深入研究深部物质与能量的交换与矿产资源形成的深层动力过程.     

椎管内肿瘤的高场MRI诊断

目的：观察市场ＭＲＩ地椎管内病变的诊断价值和影像特点。方法：回顾分析２５例椎客内肿瘤（髓内肿瘤７便,髓外人肿瘤１１例,硬膜外肿瘤７例）。结果：肿瘤最长径０．３￣１１ｃｍ,改天在颈胸段肿瘤（１７例）定位准确率为１００％,但马尾部肿瘤起地髓内外的判断有有一定的困难（７５％）,对椎管内肿瘤及明确病史转移瘤的定性确率达８４％。增强扫描有助于反映出椎管肿瘤特征及与周围结构关系。：结论：高场ＭＲ濉有更高的组织     

90年代初广东沿海电厂煤港建设的启示

近十年来,天津市海岸带公司承担了广东沿海电厂建设中的煤港项目的主要部分,足迹遍布了广东沿海。长久的积累和丰富的实践,使我公司熟悉了广东省的自然条件和特点及电厂输煤港的技术要求,在此过程中锻炼了队伍,提高了技术水平,并得到了很多有益的启示,本文论述了广东省近十年来多个沿海电厂煤港建设的技术经济问题以及天津市海岸带公司运作的机制。     

塔里木盆地轮南地区下奥陶统碳酸盐岩储层的控制因素分析

轮南地区下奥陶统潜山是一个具有良好勘探前景的油气富集区 ,但该区碳酸盐岩储层的不均一性及其预测的难度制约了该区勘探的进展 ,这也是碳酸盐岩地区油气勘探的难题之一。从影响碳酸盐岩储层发育的基本地质条件入手 ,对该区的构造特征、沉积环境及成岩作用分别进行了探讨 ,同时结合近年来的钻探成果进行了分析。结果表明 ,该区储层的储集性主要与次生孔隙有关 ,即主要受构造作用和成岩作用控制 ,而与沉积环境没有直接的关系 ,这一分析为该区碳酸盐岩储层的预测和评价提供了依据     

灵武断裂晚第四纪活动特征及位移速率

灵武断裂是银川地堑南段的东侧构造边界,与灵武-吴忠地区的地震活动有密切的关系,以往研究程度较低.作者通过实际调查、探槽开挖、年代侧定、相关地貌年代测定、断错历史研究等方面的大量工作对该断层晚第四纪的活动性开展了比较系统的野外考察.本文以野外考察获得的资料为基础,论述了该断层晚第四纪的活动特征,估计了其垂直位移速率.     

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