The global impacts of US climate policy: a model simulation using GCAM-TU and MAGICC

To assess the potential impacts of the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, this study applied GCAM-TU (an updated version of the Global Change Assessment Model) to simulate global and regional emission pathways of energy-related CO₂, which show that US emissions in 2100 would reduce to ?2.4?Gt, ?0.7?Gt and ?0.2?Gt under scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP3.7 and RCP4.5, respectively. Two unfavourable policy scenarios were designed, assuming a temporary delay and a complete stop for US mitigation actions after 2015. Simulations by the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) indicate that the temperature increase by 2100 would rise by 0.081°C–0.161°C compared to the three original RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) if US emissions were kept at their 2015 levels until 2100. The probability of staying below 2°C would decrease by 6–9% even if the US resumes mitigation efforts for achieving its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target after 2025. It is estimated by GCAM-TU that, without US participation, increased reduction efforts are required for the rest of the world, including developing countries, in order to achieve the 2°C goal, resulting in 18% higher global cumulative mitigation costs from 2015 to 2100.

Key policy insights

• President Trump’s climate policies, including planned withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, cast a shadow on international climate actions, and would lower the likelihood of achieving the 2°C target.

• To meet the 2°C target without the US means increased reduction efforts and mitigation costs for the rest of the world, and considerable economic burdens for major developing areas.

• Active state-, city- and enterprise-level powers should be supported to keep the emission reduction gap from further widening even with reduced mitigation efforts from the US federal government.

     

微生物勘探技术在潮汕坳陷油气勘探中的应用初探

东沙海域潮汕坳陷中生界研究程度相对较低,油气分布规律不明,为了加强对该区油气分布和富集规律的研究,针对潮汕坳陷西部地质目标首次应用微生物地球化学勘探技术(MGCE),探讨其含油气性。MGCE技术以轻烃微渗漏理论为基础,采用地质微生物学方法和地球化学方法检测研究区海底表层的微生物异常和吸附烃异常,预测研究区下伏地层中油气的富集区及其油气性质。检测结果显示研究区西部凹陷的斜坡区微生物异常呈块状发育,轻烃微渗漏强度变化大,可能为潜在油气富集区,酸解吸附烃成果显示可能的油气性质为干气和凝析油气。     

A Statistical Study of Rapid Sunspot Structure Change Associated with Flares

We reported recently some rapid changes of sunspot structure in white-light(WL) associated with major flares.We extend the study to smaller events and present here results of a statistical study of this phenomenon.In total,we investigate 403 events from 1998 May 9 to 2004 July 17,including 40 X-class,174 M-class,and 189 C-class flares.By monitoring the structure of the flaring active regions using the WL observations from the Transition Region and Coronal Explorer(TRACE),we find that segments in the outer sunspot structure decayed rapidly right after many flares;and that,on the other hand,the central part of sunspots near the flare-associated magnetic neutral line became darkened.These rapid and permanent changes are evidenced in the time profiles of WL mean intensity and are not likely resulted from the flare emissions.Our study further shows that the outer sunspot structure decay as well as the central structure darkening are more likely to be detected in larger solar flares.For X-class flares,over 40% events show distinct sunspot structure change.For M-and C-class flares,this percentage drops to 17% and 10%,respectively.The results of this statistical study support our previously proposed reconnection picture,i.e.,the flare-related magnetic fields evolve from a highly inclined to a more vertical configuration.     

机载粉剂催化剂播撒设备的研制及其在奥运和残奥消云中的应用

人为引发的下沉气流可以抑制对流云的发展,这一现象已在试验中得到验证。用“人工下沉气流法”实施人工消云试验时,需在云顶大剂量的播撒粉剂催化剂。北京市人工影响天气办公室研制了能完成此类大剂量播撤任务的设备,并通过外场飞行试验对设备进行检验和改进。这是国内人工影响天气领域首个采用空投播撒法的粉剂催化剂播撤设备;可减少催化剂对飞机和播撤设备的污染。分析发现,新设备能够满足人工消云作业中播撒大剂量粉剂催化剂的需要。该设备在北京奥运会、残奥会开闭幕式当日的消云试验作业中投入使用,共实施消云飞行作业9架次,累计利用新设备播撒吸湿性粉剂催化剂34吨。     

THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN EFFICACY OF GEOELECTRICAL RESISTIVITY METHOD IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION AND SITE CONDITION

INTRODUCTION In the past two decades, field observation, laboratory experiments, and the theoretical studies in the study on earthquake prediction have been carried out in several countries, by using ρ_s method, and valuable results have been achieved. The first geoelectrical resistivity (ρ_s) observatory for earthquake forecasting established at     

气候与土地利用变化对水文水资源的影响研究

水资源短缺和水患灾害已成为全球关心的重大问题。气候与土地利用变化对流域水资源和旱涝的影响以及由此产生的社会经济后果已引起人类社会的广泛关注。深入综合地开展这方面的研究对国民经济建设和可持续发展规划决策有重要的意义。通过分析总结已进行的有关研究工作 ,对该领域的研究进展作了简要回顾 ,讨论了现有工作的不足和今后的研究内容和方法。     

CATASTROPHIC ECO-ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE SONGNEN PLAIN, NORTHEASTERN CHINA SINCE 1900S

Although the Songnen Plain in the northeastern China was developed relatively late in the temperate zone of the world, its eco-environment has changed greatly. This paper analyzes the changes of land cover and the rates and trends ofdesertification during the past 100 years in the Songnen Plain. According to the macroscopic analysis, we find that the eco-environment in the plain has reached to the threshold of catastrophic change since the 1950s. The Thorn Needle Catastrophic Model was used to determine and validate this conclusion. Human activities, including large-scale construction projects, such as huge dams and dikes, and excessive grazing were the primary factors contributing to regional eco-environmental catastrophe. And irrational reclamation of the wilderness also affected the eco-environmental change. The results reveal the complex human-land interactions.     

合成地震记录制作中的质量控制方法研究

合成地震记录制作中的质量控制将最终决定地震地质层位标定的精度,为此,在分析合成地震记录原理基础上,从三个环节对合成地震记录制作进行质量控制:①通过测井数据精确计算反射系数;②提取与地震资料频谱一致、波形和相位稳定的地震子波;③在获得高精度速度场的基础上,从波组、波形、振幅、频率和相位特征等方面进行匹配调整等,通过对各个环节的研究分析,提出了一整套行之有效的质量控制方法,提高合成地震记录的精度,达到层位标定对合成地震记录精度的要求.     

拟穴青蟹(Scylla paramamosain)蛋白二硫键异构酶基因的分子克隆与表达分析

蛋白二硫键异构酶(PDI)是内质网中的关键酶, 参与蛋白合成过程中二硫键的形成、还原和异构。本文首次从拟穴青蟹(Scylla paramamosain)克隆获得了PDI基因cDNA全长, 该序列长度为2015bp, 开放阅读框为1452bp, 编码483个氨基酸。荧光定量PCR检测发现PDI存在于拟穴青蟹的多个组织中; 在拟穴青蟹卵巢发育过程中, PDI基因的表达量在前4个时期逐渐上升, 到了第5期(成熟期)表达量则下降, 表明PDI参与了卵巢发育的蛋白合成过程。免疫组化表明, 拟穴青蟹卵母细胞存在PDI阳性反应, 进一步为该分子参与卵巢发育提供了形态学证据。     

基于全球剖分模型的遥感影像变化区域表达和分发

很多遥感影像应用的情况下,用户需要及时获取最新的影像,其中优先级最高的应是影像的变化区域;对于那些没有变化或变化不重要的区域,则没有必要立刻传输最新时相的影像.根据上述思路,基于地图分幅拓展的全球剖分模型,利用剖分面片管理多时相的影像数据,并将其中的变化区域表达为最小外包面片(MBC)的集合.影像更新时只需传输变化区域MBC集合中的影像面片,从而减少影像更新时的数据传输负担.该文实现了影像分发平台,对MBC方法进行了验证,试验表明利用MBC进行影像变化区域表达能够满足降低数据传输负担的要求.