基于ROMS模式利用集合最优插值同化沿轨海表面高度异常数据的研究

The ensemble optimal interpolation （EnOI） is applied to the regional ocean modeling system （ROMS） with the ability to assimilate the along-track sea level anomaly （TSLA）. This system is tested with an eddy-resolving system of the South China Sea （SCS）. Background errors are derived from a running seasonal ensemble to account for the seasonal variability within the SCS. A fifth-order localization function with a 250 km localization radius is chosen to reduce the negative effects of sampling errors. The data assimilation system is tested from January 2004 to December 2006. The results show that the root mean square deviation （RMSD） of the sea level anomaly decreased from 10.57 to 6.70 cm, which represents a 36.6% reduction of error. The data assimilation reduces error for temperature within the upper 800 m and for salinity within the upper 200 m, although error degrades slightly at deeper depths. Surface currents are in better agreement with trajectories of surface drifters after data assimilation. The variance of sea level improves significantly in terms of both the amplitude and position of the strong and weak variance regions after assimilating TSLA. Results with AGE error （AGE） perform better than no AGE error （NoAGE） when considering the improvements of the temperature and the salinity. Furthermore, reasons for the extremely strong variability in the northern SCS in high resolution models are investigated. The results demonstrate that the strong variability of sea level in the high resolution model is caused by an extremely strong Kuroshio intrusion. Therefore, it is demonstrated that it is necessary to assimilate the TSLA in order to better simulate the SCS with high resolution models.     

中国近海海平面变化与ENSO的关系

利用中国沿海台站潮位和中国近海及赤道太平洋的卫星测高、海表温度、风及气压资料,分析了中国近海海平面变化与ENSO的关系。分析结果表明:中国沿海海平面季节变化受ENSO影响明显,在厄尔尼诺事件期间,中国沿海海平面Sa分潮的振幅明显减小,其中年振幅的历史极小值均出现厄尔尼诺年,不同区域历史极小值出现的年份不同;另外,中国沿海Sa分潮的振幅对厄尔尼诺事件的响应与其强弱有关,在强事件中,响应区域和幅度较大,弱事件中,响应区域和幅度偏小。在厄尔尼诺年,中国沿海海平面多低于相邻年份,并且其年际变化存在明显的2~3a、4~7a、准9a、11a和准19a的周期,其中4~7a的周期在冬春季节震荡最显著,其震荡幅度接近2cm。中国近海海平面与赤道东太平洋区域的海表温度年际变化之间存在反相关关系,其相关系数为-0.42;同时与Nio4和Nio3.4指数序列也呈现反相关关系。针对典型的1997/1998年尼诺事件发生前后的风场和气压场分析发现,尼诺发生前的冬半年,冬季风偏强,气压梯度加强,中国沿海海平面偏低;到了厄尔尼诺的盛期,出现较强的南风异常,气压梯度反向,季风转向,过渡到了厄尔尼诺事件的衰减期,为拉尼娜事件做准备,此时海平面偏高。     

历年影响广西沿海的热带气旋及其灾害成因分析(英文)

登陆或经过广西沿海的热带气旋是一种严重的自然灾害,每年热带气旋所伴随的大风、大雨、风暴潮等灾害造成沿海地区严重的财产损失或人员伤亡。通过对1950~2012年影响广西沿海的热带气旋的统计分析发现,影响广西沿海的热带气旋数量年际变化明显,最多的年份达9个,最少的年份为0个;热带气旋季节分布具有明显规律性,每年的7、8、9三个月为影响高峰月,其次为6、10月;热带气旋从菲律宾以东洋面进入南海后穿过海南省和雷州半岛再次登陆广西沿海的次数最多,该类热带气旋引起的风暴增水平均值为111.2 cm,到达非登陆台风增水的2.6倍。风暴潮灾害的形成与强台风天气系统、全日大潮、河流下泄洪水直接有关。强台风产生巨浪及降雨,使入海河口水位上升,与风暴潮叠加后产生明显的增水,造成巨大的潮灾。     

历年影响广西沿海的热带气旋及其灾害成因分析

通过对1950-2012年影响广西沿海的热带气旋的统计分析发现,影响广西沿海的热带气旋数量年际变化明显,最多的年份达9个,最少的年份为0个;热带气旋季节分布具有明显规律性,每年的7、8、9三个月为影响高峰月,其次为6、10月;热带气旋从菲律宾以东洋面进入南海后穿过海南省和雷州半岛再次登陆广西沿海的次数最多,该类热带气旋引起的风暴增水平均值为111.2 cm,到达非登陆台风增水的2.6倍。风暴潮灾害的形成与强台风天气系统、全日大潮、河流下泄洪水直接有关。强台风产生巨浪及降雨,使入海河口水位上升,与风暴潮叠加后产生明显的增水,造成巨大的潮灾。     

高光谱大气红外探测仪(AIRS)反演大气不稳定度指数在强对流天气个例中的应用试验

使用探空、NCEP-FNL,数据和高光谱分辨率大气垂直探测仪(AIRS)标准反演数据计算大气不稳定度指数,对2011年6月23日北京强对流天气发生前的本地及上游大气中不稳定能量进行分析研究。分析发现:利用08、14和20时探空数据计算的北京站不稳定度指数显示了在"6·23暴雨"过程发生前后北京上空不稳定能量变化,上游关键区无探空数据;利用NCEP和AIRS数据计算的不稳定度指数显示,强对流天气发生前,在北京的上游关键区大气处于极端不稳定状态(K指数大于40,SI指数小于一5),有利于强对流天气发生。文章的研究结果表明,探空数据时空分辨率较低,不利于监测强对流天气的发生;质量控制后AIRS数据计算的不稳定度指数可以监测对流天气的发生;空间分辨率较低的NCEP数据监测小范围大气不稳定层结能力较低。综上所述,AIRS反演产品具有弥补探空资料时空分辨率不足的优势,利用AIRS L2反演产品计算晴空大气不稳定度指数产品可以监测到"6·23暴雨"天气发生前上游关键区大气层结稳定度状态,为预报员决策提供有效的辅助信息。     

相控阵雷达扫描方式对回波强度测量的影响

有源数字阵列雷达的波束设计非常灵活,可变的波束宽度和多波束模式不仅可以满足不同任务的观测需求,还可有效节约扫描时间,但阵列天线参数随波位改变的特性对相控阵天气雷达回波强度的精确定标提出了挑战。2013年4—6月,中国气象科学研究院与安徽四创电子股份有限公司联合研发的X波段一维有源相控阵天气雷达 (X-PAR) 进行了装配后的首次测试观测。对比该雷达与相同位置的C波段双线偏振雷达 (C-POL) 观测资料发现,X-PAR不同宽度的扫描波束均能取得较合理的观测资料。但由于各模式的雷达方程及其标定方法不尽相同,并受到阵列天线照射体积、展宽波束和发射增益的影响,造成X-PAR回波强度存在一定的测量偏差。结合天线参数分析和实际数据统计将测量偏差订正至±1 dB内,为雷达的进一步调试和改进提供了依据。     

福建省GPS基准站数据处理与分析

利用福建省41个GPS基准站2011—2014年的观测资料,运用GAMIT／GLOBKl0．4软件及块体整体旋转线性应变模型,得到了福建省各测站及分块的水平运动速度场和块体上的应变图像。通过分析研究2011—2013和2011-2014两个时段速度场和应变场的特征,为福建省未来地震活动判定提供形变依据。     

The Characteristics of Atmospheric Ice Nuclei Measured at Different Altitudes in the Huangshan Mountains in Southeast China简

The concentration of ice nuclei （IN） and the relationship with aerosol particles were measured and analyzed using three 5-L mixing cloud chambers and a static diffusion cloud chamber at three altitudes in the Huangshan Mountains in Southeast China from May to September 2011.The results showed that the mean total number concentration of IN on the highest peak of the Huangshan Mountains at an activation temperature （Ta） of-20℃C was 16.6 L-1.When the supersaturation with respect to water （Sw） and with respect to ice （Si） were set to 5％,the average number concentrations of IN measured at an activation temperature of-20℃C by the static diffusion cloud chamber were 0.89 and 0.105 L-1,respectively.A comparison of the concentrations of IN at three different altitudes showed that the concentration of IN at the foot of the mountains was higher than at the peak.A further calculation of the correlation between IN and the concentrations of aerosol particles of different size ranges showed that the IN concentration was well correlated with the concentration of aerosol particles in the size range of 1.2-20 μtm.It was also found that the IN concentration varied with meteorological conditions,such as wind speed,with higher IN concentrations often observed on days with strong wind.An analysis of the backward trajectories of air masses showed that low IN concentrations were often related to air masses travelling along southwest pathways,while higher IN concentrations were usually related to those transported along northeast pathways.     

The variability of the East Asian summer monsoon and its relationship to ENSO in a partially coupled climate model

The variability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is studied using a partially coupled climate model (PCCM) in which the ocean component is driven by observed monthly mean wind stress anomalies added to the monthly mean wind stress climatology from a fully coupled control run. The thermodynamic coupling between the atmospheric and oceanic components is the same as in the fully coupled model and, in particular, sea surface temperature (SST) is a fully prognostic variable. The results show that the PCCM simulates the observed SST variability remarkably well in the tropical and North Pacific and Indian Oceans. Analysis of the rainfall-SST and rainfall-SST tendency correlation shows that the PCCM exhibits local air-sea coupling as in the fully coupled model and closer to what is seen in observations than is found in an atmospheric model driven by observed SST. An ensemble of experiments using the PCCM is analysed using a multivariate EOF analysis to identify the two major modes of variability of the EASM. The PCCM simulates the spatial pattern of the first two modes seen in the ERA40 reanalysis as well as part of the variability of the first principal component (correlation up to 0.5 for the model ensemble mean). Different from previous studies, the link between the first principal component and ENSO in the previous winter is found to be robust for the ensemble mean throughout the whole period of 1958–2001. Individual ensemble members nevertheless show the breakdown in the relationship before the 1980’s as seen in the observations.     

A multi-scale urban atmospheric dispersion model for emergency management

To assist emergency management planning and prevention in case of hazardous chemical release into the atmosphere,especially in densely built-up regions with large populations,a multi-scale urban atmospheric dispersion model was established.Three numerical dispersion experiments,at horizontal resolutions of 10 m,50 m and 3000 m,were performed to estimate the adverse effects of toxic chemical release in densely built-up areas.The multi-scale atmospheric dispersion model is composed of the Weather Forecasting and Research （WRF） model,the Open Source Field Operation and Manipulation software package,and a Lagrangian dispersion model.Quantification of the adverse health effects of these chemical release events are given by referring to the U.S.Environmental Protection Agency＇s Acute Exposure Guideline Levels.The wind fields of the urban-scale case,with 3 km horizontal resolution,were simulated by the Beijing Rapid Update Cycle system,which were utilized by the WRF model.The sub-domain-scale cases took advantage of the computational fluid dynamics method to explicitly consider the effects of buildings.It was found that the multi-scale atmospheric dispersion model is capable of simulating the flow pattern and concentration distribution on different scales,ranging from several meters to kilometers,and can therefore be used to improve the planning of prevention and response programs.