我国地形变观测预报地震的现状及对地震预测问题的思考

本文展示了我国地形变观测的状况,讨论了以地形变观测预报地震的基本思路及应用情况,探讨了地震预测面临的困难及地形变观测须解决的技术问题。最后,作者认为,地震预报目前或今后很长一段时间都将是以观测为主的试验性科学,物理统计分析方法是研究地震孕育动力学过程或进行预测的最具有潜力的途径之一。     

Geochemical baseline of trace elements in the sediment in Dexing area,South China

A baseline might be used as a point of reference to monitor change from some specific data without concern for whether the baseline determination is natural or has been changed by human activity. We selected 326 sediment samples from Dexing area, South China, and analyzed for 17 chemical elements. The geochemical baseline was predicted with the method of the normalization procedure combined with the relative cumulative frequency curve. The results indicate Al was the best reference element for the normalization procedure among four potential reference elements (Al, Fe, Ti, and Mn). The baseline value range obtained from the normalization procedure method included both the regional geochemical background of the sediment and the median value of the measured contents. The median value of baselines obtained from relative cumulative frequency method was lower than that obtained from normalization procedure method. In contrast to the geochemical patterns of heavy metals in 1987, the spatial distribution of anomalies sprawled in 2004 in study area, especially for Cu, Pb, Zn, Cd, As, Fe, and Cr.     

龙口市城镇聚落空间信息提取与动态变化研究

以胶东半岛龙口市为研究区域，利用1983年地形图、Landsat 1992.6和2002.6两个时期的TM影像，首先分析了该区域城镇聚落的影像特征，研究了城镇聚落及其背景地物的光谱特征，并探讨了它们在光谱特征上的可分性；然后分析并建立了基于光谱特征和形状特征的简单决策树模型，对研究区域城镇聚落信息进行了提取。在此基础上，简要分析了胶东半岛龙口市近20年来，城镇聚落动态变化的特点。     

Influences of Al,Mg, and K on Calculating Concentrations of Other Formation Elements and Their Corrections in Geochemical Logging

In geochemical logging, the standard capture gamma-ray spectra of Al, Mg, and K have no distinct characteristic energy peaks. This feature easily influences the spectral bands of characteristic peaks of other elements and thus affects the accuracy of calculating their concentrations. To study this influence, we constructed a model formation containing Al, Mg, and K, and employed the Monte Carlo N Particle Transport Code (MCNP) program to simulate their capture spectra. The results indicate that the calculated dry weights of Si are almost free from the influences of Mg, K, and Al. The ones of Ca and Fe are influenced, but only to a minor extent. The dry weight of S is concurrently influenced. Specifically, the K concentration causes S concentration to deviate significantly from its real concentration. By correcting for such influences, we can obtain relatively accurate values. Data processing for a real well validates the finding that Mg, Al, and K in the formation influence the precision of calculation of other elements and also testifies to the effectiveness of the correction method.     

Mantle transition zone beneath the Caribbean-South American plate boundary and its tectonic implications

We analyzed receiver-function data recorded by a temporary broadband array deployed as part of the BOLIVAR project and the permanent seismic network of Venezuela to study the mantle transition zone structure beneath the Caribbean-South American plate boundary and Venezuela. Significant topography on both the 410-km and the 660-km discontinuities was clearly imaged in the CCP (common-conversion-point) stacked images. Beneath the southeastern Caribbean, the 410-km is featured by a narrow (～ 200 km EW) ～ 25-km uplift extending in the NS direction around 63° west, while the 660-km is depressed by ～ 20 km in a narrow region slightly west to the uplift, a scenario that is more consistent with westward descent of the oceanic South American plate rather than a break-off of NNW dipping proto-Caribbean oceanic lithosphere along the El Pilar Fault. We also found a thick transition zone beneath the Falcon region in northwestern Venezuela, possibly associated with the subducted Nazca plate. A flat 410-km was observed beneath the Guayana shield, suggesting that the shield has a stable and moderately deep keel, which has little effect on the underlying transition zone structure.     

两种应变仪的面应变观测资料的比对研究

对徐州地震台的YRY-4型分量式和TJ-2型体积式钻孔应变仪,2008—2010年的面应变原始观测曲线、年变曲线、降雨干扰曲线、气压影响曲线和固体潮汐观测结果进行了比对研究,并计算了各自的相关系数和影响系数,总结了二者的共性和差异。     

Estimating longitudinal dispersion in rivers using Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers

The longitudinal dispersion coefficient (D) is an important parameter needed to describe the transport of solutes in rivers and streams. The dispersion coefficient is generally estimated from tracer studies but the method can be expensive and time consuming, especially for large rivers. A number of empirical relations are available to estimate the dispersion coefficient; however, these relations are known to produce estimates within an order of magnitude of the tracer value. The focus of this paper is on using the shear-flow dispersion theory to directly estimate the dispersion coefficient from velocity measurements obtained using an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP). Using tracer and hydrodynamic data collected within the same river reaches, we examined conditions under which the ADCP and tracer methods produced similar results. Since dead zones / transient storage (TS) are known to influence the dispersion coefficient, we assessed the relative importance of dead zones in different stream reaches using two tracer-based approaches: (1) TS modeling which explicitly accounts for dead zones and (2) the advection–dispersion equation (ADE) which does not have separate terms for dead zones. Dispersion coefficients based on the ADE tend to be relatively high as they describe some of the effects of dead zones as well. Results based on the ADCP method were found to be in good agreement with the ADE estimates indicating that storage zones play an important role in the estimated dispersion coefficients, especially at high flows. For the river sites examined in this paper, the tracer estimates of dispersion were close to the median values of the ADCP estimates obtained from multiple datasets within a reach. The ADCP method appears to be an excellent alternative to the traditional tracer-based method if care is taken to avoid spurious data and multiple datasets are used to compute a distance-weighted average or other appropriate measure that represents reach-averaged conditions.     

Landslide intelligent prediction using object-oriented method

Landslides are one of the most serious geological disasters in the world and happen quite frequently in the Three Gorges. Landslide prediction is a very important measure of landslide prevention and cure in the Three Gorges. Traditional methods lack in sufficiently mining the various complex information from a landslide system. They often need much manual intervention and possess poor intelligence and accuracy. An intelligent method proposed in this paper for landslide prediction based on an object-oriented method and knowledge driving is hopeful to solve the above problem. The method adopted Landsat ETM+ images, 1:50,000 geological map and 1:10,000 relief map in the Three Gorges as the data origins. It firstly produced the key factors influencing landslide development and used multi-resolution segmentation algorithm to segment the image objects based on the key landslide factors of engineering rock group, reservoir water fluctuation, slope structure and slope level. Secondly, the method chose some sample objects and adopted the decision tree algorithm C5.0 to mine the landslide forecast criteria according to the factor values of each sample object. Finally, under knowledge driving the method classified the image objects and realized landslide susceptibility analysis and intelligent prediction in the Three Gorges. The method proposed in this paper is object-oriented. Results of a real-world example show that: (1) the object-oriented method possesses much more compact knowledge representation, higher efficiency, more continuous classifying result and higher prediction accuracy compared with the pixel-oriented method; (2) it possesses the overall accuracy of 87.64% and kappa coefficient of 0.8305 and is more accurate than the other seven methods (such as the pixel-oriented methods of Parallelpiped, Minimum Distance, Maximum Likelihood, Mahalanobis Distance, K-means and Isodata and the object-oriented method of Nearest Neighbor); (3) about 46.97% landslides lie in the high susceptibility region, 24.24% landslides lie in the moderate susceptibility region, 27.27% landslides lie in the low susceptibility region and 1.52% landslides lie in the very low susceptibility region. Therefore the method can effectively realize landslide susceptibility analysis and provides a new idea for landslide intelligent and accurate prediction.     

Optimization of conditions for tetraspore release and assessment of photosynthetic activities for different generation branches of Gracilaria lemaneiformis Bory

Gracilaria lemaneiformis Bory is an economically important alga that is primarily used for agar production. Although tetraspores are ideal seeds for the cultivation of G. lemaneiformis, the most popular culture method is currently based on vegetative fragments, which is labor-intensive and time-consuming. In this study, we optimized the conditions for tetraspore release and evaluated the photosynthetic activities of different colonies formed from the branches of G. lemaneiformis using a PAM (pulse-amplitude-modulated) measuring system. The results showed that variations in temperature and salinityhad significant effects on tetraspore yield. However, variations in the photon flux density (from 15 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹ to 480 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹) had no apparent effect on tetraspore yield. Moreover, the PAM-parameters Y(I), Y(II), ETR(I), ETR(II) and F _v/F _m of colonies formed from different branches showed the same trend: parameter values of first generation branches>second generation branches>third generation branches. These results suggest that the photosynthetic activities of different colonies of branches changed with the same trend. Furthermore, photosynthesis in G. lemaneiformis was found to be involved in vegetative reproduction and tetraspore formation. Finally, the first generation branches grew slowly, but accumulated organic compounds to form large numbers of tetraspores. Taken together, these results showed that the first generation branches are ideal materials for the release of tetraspores.     

Millennial-centennial scales climate changes of Holocene indicated by magnetic susceptibility of high-resolution section in Salawusu River valley,China

The upmost segment(Holocene series)of the Milanggouwan stratigraphic section(MGS1)in the Salawusu River valley shows 11 sedimentary cycles of dune sands and fluvio-lacustrine facies,or dune sands and paleosols.The analysis of the magnetic susceptibility of this segment suggests that there are 11 magnetic susceptibility cycles with the value alternating from low to high,in which the layers of the dune sands correspond to the lower value of the magnetic susceptibility and the layers of fluvio-lacustrine facies and paleosols correspond to the higher peaks.The study reveals that the low and high magnetic susceptibility values indicate the climate dominated by cold-arid winter monsoon and warm-humid summer monsoon of East Asia,respectively,and the study area has experienced at least 22 times of mil-lennial-centennial scales climate alternation from the cold-arid to the warm-humid during the Holocene.In terms of the time and the climate nature,the variations basically correspond to those of the North Atlantic and some records of cold-warm changes in China as well.They might be caused by the alternation of winter and summer monsoons in the Mu Us Desert induced by global climate fluctuations in the Holocene.