车贝雪夫多项式的约简算法

解释了文献「１」中关于化整后的车贝雪夫多项式约简处理的技术原理,给出了一种可快速实现多项式约简处理的求算方法。     

Velocity and Temperature Dissimilarity in the Surface Layer Uncovered by the Telegraph Approximation

We consider the Janjic (NCEP Office Note 437:61, 2001) boundary-layer model, which is one of the most widely used in numerical weather prediction models. This boundary-layer model is based on a number of length scales that are, in turn, obtained from a master length multiplied by constants. We analyze the simulation results obtained using different sets of constants with respect to measurements using sonic anemometers, and interpret these results in terms of the turbulence processes in the atmosphere and of the role played by the different length scales. The simulations are run on a virtual machine on the Chameleon cloud for low-wind-speed, unstable, and stable conditions.

     

广西大范围暴雨期间孟加拉湾强对流演变及东移特征

分析1980~2002年主汛期(5~7月)广西锋面型大范围暴雨期间孟加拉湾对流云团演变及与之相应高低空环流变化,结果表明:孟加拉湾强对流在广西暴雨发生前3天发展最为旺盛,受孟加拉湾低槽引导,对流云团爬上中南半岛进入广西,当其与高原东移的云团相结合时再次发展,造成广西大范围暴雨。分析200 hPa高度场和流场结果表明:当广西暴雨发生时,孟加拉湾、中南半岛及广西受200 hPa南亚高压控制。分析850 hPa水汽通量矢量场结果表明:广西锋面型暴雨发生时,从孟加拉湾到广西上空有一西南气流的水汽输送带,广西暴雨水汽主要来源于孟加拉湾。     

GPRS自动雨量站状态监控和数据应用系统

焦作市气象局开发的GPRS自动雨量站状态监控和数据应用系统包括两个层面：一是基于C／S结构的数据下载辅助程序,实现读取远程数据库雨量资料存入本地数据库;二是基于Web平台的数据处理应用主程序,实现对辖区乡镇自动雨量站运行状态监控、暴雨雨量告警、区域雨量图显示、雨量等值线分析、RSS数据推送等功能。系统构建了较完善的市、县乡镇自动雨量站管理、共享、服务平台,且在一年的业务使用中运行良好。系统的不足之处是短信发送范围较小,且因Web应用程序引入外部程序配置文件过多,导致管理不便。     

长江流域气候变化高分辨率模拟与RCP4.5情景下的预估

基于长江流域142个气象站1986—2005年月降水和气温数据,评估由MPI-ESM-LR模式驱动的CCLM区域气候模式对长江流域气温和降水的模拟能力,并采用EDCDF法对气温和降水预估数据进行偏差校正。结果表明：该区域气候模式能较好地模拟出长江流域平均气温的季节变化和空间分布特征,但模拟值无论在季节还是年际尺度上均高于观测值。对降水而言,该模式不能较好地模拟出降水的季节分布特征,导致春季、冬季及年模拟值高于观测值,而夏季和秋季模拟值低于观测值。总体而言,该模式对气温的模拟效果相对较好。偏差校正后的预估结果表明：在RCP4.5情景下,长江流域未来（2016—2035年）平均气温相对于基准期（1986—2005年）将升高0.66℃,年降水量将减少2.2%。     

利用气温与云顶亮温差值检测云方法研究

利用2005年7-12月卫星资料、地面观测资料、探空资料和地形资料,统计分析了无云条件下气温与云顶亮温的差值,结果表明：无云情况下气温与云顶亮温差值平均为5.04℃,且具有较大的日变化性。由此提出了按时次分别求取阈值用以检测云。通过个例对比分析,初步得出该方法检测云具有以下特点：可用于全天候云检测;不受地形地貌等因素的影响;该云检测方法应用于反演计算,不仅反演的中、高云区域与实测的比较一致,而且反演的低云区域与实测结果也比较一致。     

Development of climate change projections for small watersheds using multi-model ensemble simulation and stochastic weather generation

Regional climate models (RCMs) have been increasingly used for climate change studies at the watershed scale. However, their performance is strongly dependent upon their driving conditions, internal parameterizations and domain configurations. Also, the spatial resolution of RCMs often exceeds the scales of small watersheds. This study developed a two-step downscaling method to generate climate change projections for small watersheds through combining a weighted multi-RCM ensemble and a stochastic weather generator. The ensemble was built on a set of five model performance metrics and generated regional patterns of climate change as monthly shift terms. The stochastic weather generator then incorporated these shift terms into observed climate normals and produced synthetic future weather series at the watershed scale. This method was applied to the Assiniboia area in southern Saskatchewan, Canada. The ensemble led to reduced biases in temperature and precipitation projections through properly emphasizing models with good performance. Projection of precipitation occurrence was particularly improved through introducing a weight-based probability threshold. The ensemble-derived climate change scenario was well reproduced as local daily weather series by the stochastic weather generator. The proposed combination of dynamical downscaling and statistical downscaling can improve the reliability and resolution of future climate projection for small prairie watersheds. It is also an efficient solution to produce alternative series of daily weather conditions that are important inputs for examining watershed responses to climate change and associated uncertainties.     

2012年桂西北一次地面人工增雨作业天气条件的分析和捕捉

以百色市田林县一次降雨过程的人工增雨作业天气和作业实况作为研究对象,对相应天气形势和物理量场进行剖析并对增雨效果进行检验。得出:在短波槽、切变线和弱冷空气为主的中低层天气系统影响下,低层水汽充足,上升运动的加剧及弱冷空气的入侵可激发降雨的产生;在降雨初期对液水含量大,冰晶含量偏低的冷云及时进行人工催化作业,可收到明显的增雨效果。     

Duplex equilibria of Ural circulation anomalies

Atmospheric circulation anomalies over the Ural Mountains are crucial indicators of the anomalous downstream weather and climate over East Asia. Here, we provide a new perspective on the mechanism of Ural circulation anomalies. We use a simple theoretical model to determine that the relationship between the solar forcing and three Ural circulation patterns, namely, neutral type, trough anomaly and ridge anomaly, is a nonlinear relationship following the supercritical pitchfork bifurcation theory. The theory predicts that when the total solar irradiance (TSI) is below a critical value, trough and ridge anomalies represent duplex equilibria and are equally likely to occur at the same TSI. Based on 180 winter months record, we have estimated the bidimensional probability density of TSI and the monthly mean geopotential height at 500 hPa or zonal wind at 850 hPa over the Ural Mountains. Results show that Sc = 1360.9 W m−2 is a critical value of TSI, the neutral type pattern is the single circulation regime when TSI > Sc, whereas trough and ridge anomaly patterns are duplex circulation regimes when TSI < Sc. Besides, when TSI < Sc, during the same TSI range, trough and ridge anomaly events occur at nearly the same frequencies. These results generally agree with the theoretical model. We demonstrate that trough and ridge anomalies, as duplex equilibria, result from the large-scale zonal flow interacting with the Ural Mountains. Low TSI tends to strengthen the large-scale zonal flow over the Ural Mountains, hence inducing either a trough anomaly or ridge anomaly.