滇9井水温在5.0级以上近震前的异常动态特征

对滇9井水温观测资料的日均值动态变化、30天滑动均值动态变化和残差滑动均值动态变化进行了研究.结果表明:水温日均值动态变化在距该井40 km范围内≥5.0级中强地方震前,具有异常幅度较大、映震时间极短的显著临震特征;水温30天滑动均值连续上升动态变化在距该井500 km范围内≥5.0级中强近震前,具有异常幅度显著、映震时间多数在3个月内的短临特征;水温30天滑动均值连续下降动态变化在距该井250～450 km范围内≥6.0级中强近震前,具有异常幅度大、映震强度大、时间稍长的中期特征.因此,滇9井水温动态变化异常对中短临预报效果明显,特别是水温日均值动态变化异常具有地方震临震指示意义,对实现临震预报有一定的实践意义.     

芦山地震前康定地温变化现象

近年来,中国大陆强震主要发生在巴颜喀拉地块周边,该地块成为近期中国大陆强震主体地区.在一些关键构造部位,开展地壳活动信息监测具有重要的实际意义.作者所在研究组专门研发了适于野外观测的无线地温遥测设备,在鲜水河断裂带建立了无线地温遥测台网.在2013年4月20日的芦山地震前后,观测到了一些值得关注的现象:从2013年1月31日开始,康定地温出现持续变化,并与台站周围小震活动存在良好的对应关系.根据温度与力之间的关系,基岩温度突变的内在本质是应力调整.从构造角度看,龙门山断裂带和鲜水河断裂带同属于巴颜喀拉地块的不同边界,康定测点与芦山地震之间存在关联性,上述温度变化可能与芦山地震有关.     

对1970云南通海地震参数、伤亡、公布形式质疑的商榷

1970云南通海大地震造成15 621人丧生,是1949年建国以来仅次于唐山地震与汶川地震死亡人数最多的地震。由于在特定历史时期发生的地震,因而在社会上对这个地震的情况产生了质疑,质疑最终的结果是贬低本次地震的部分工作,这与过去所做的结论有冲突,就此,本文就质疑的地名、震级、伤亡人数及公布方式等相关问题,从文献与档案资料进行调查研究和分析,回复质疑并对历史真实情况及事件发生的原委得出结论。     

发震构造呈复杂空间关系下相互影响发震的机理研究——以汶川地震为例

对发震构造呈复杂几何关系(发震构造在平面投影呈非平行关系)下彼此发震影响的机理进行了研究.从发震的“垂震底继”影响关系研究了1933年迭溪地震M7.5和1976年松潘Ms7.2地震对后来发生汶川M8地震的龙门山地震构造的孕震能量叠加的加震作用;同时也指出汶川8级地震对周边断裂的减震作用,计算并指出了其影响减震的距离.研究对CPSHA中对发震构造呈复杂几何关系时,如何确定地震带内各潜在的震源空间分布函数fi,mj提供了大震加减震的判断理论依据.还讨论了汶川地震孕震模式的更复杂性,针对某些用巴颜喀拉块体向东南方向移动挤压龙门山孕震构造,进而解释汶川地震的逆冲性所带来的矛盾的观点,对其孕震的复杂性提出了问题所在和初步探讨.     

利用Terra和Aqua卫星地表温度探索汶川地震同震热响应

如何从卫星热红外遥感影像中提取出可靠的、能够验证的、与构造活动有关的热信息,是利用热红外信息研究构造现今活动亟待完善的问题之一.从信息提取的角度看,地震前后所对应的物理变化最为强烈,同震热响应可能是利用热信息探索现今构造活动潜在的突破点.本文以MODIS/Terra和MODIS/Aqua两颗卫星的地表温度为基础,探索汶川地震同震热响应.首先,去除了由地形等静态因素和太阳年周期组成的稳定背景;其次,去除大气环流的影响,获得由本地因素产生的原地温度场.最后,在原地温度场中,发现了汶川地震的同震温度响应.经过检验,上述温度响应的空间展布形态与发震断层的活动方式产生的力学效应吻合.从应力变化与温度响应的关系看,本文相当于借助热信息获得了汶川地震同震拉张或卸载区的空间展布情况.     

Application of synoptic-scale anomalous winds predicted by medium-range weather forecast models on the regional heavy rainfall in China in 2010

Atmospheric winds from observations and medium-range weather forecast model predictions can be physically decomposed as daily climate wind,planetary-scale anomalous wind,and synoptic-scale anomalous wind.The 850 hPa synoptic-scale anomalous winds were extracted from the numerical model outputs of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) and the NCEP Global Forecast System(GFS).The results showed that most rain bands in eastern China in 2010 were located along the anomalous convergence lines.To predict the major rain bands by these convergence lines in 2010,the accuracies of the ECMWF products were 100%,85%,and 15% for leading 3,6,and 9 days,while the GFS products showed 53%,15%,and 6% accuracies,respectively.In comparison of the regional heavy rainfalls between observation and the ECMWF model prediction,the useful leading information was about 3.1 days for direct model rain prediction and 6.7 days for convergence systems predicted by ECMWF model.     

Ecological Risk Assessment of Benzo[a]pyrene in Yellow River Delta

Ecological risk assessment is of great significance to promoting the rational management effectively for the oil‐polluted areas. A comprehensive evaluation method of ecological risk, including probabilistic risk assessment and regional ecological risk assessment, is developed through employing the contaminant benzo[a]pyrene as an indicator to assess ecological risk of five oil mining plots, respectively in Yellow River Delta. In this study, firstly we evaluate the ecological risk probability of five oil mining plots using overlapping area of probabilistic curves, and the results show that local ecological risk varies between the maximum 0.4 and the minimum 0.01. Then we overlay boundaries of five administrative divisions in Yellow River Delta and the spatial distribution patterns of ecosystems to generate new risk receptor plaques, and calculate the integrated value of 30 specifically classified plaques for comprehensive evaluation of ecological risk. The results, fluctuating within the range of 0.00005 and 0.25, indicate that local government should be vigilant to ecological risk of benzo[a]pyrene to some extent, although the current situation is not severe in whole.     

Dissolution-filling mechanism of atmospheric precipitation controlled by both thermodynamics and kinetics

Affected by structural uplift,the Ordovician carbonate rockbed in the Tarim Basin,China,was exposed to dissolution and reformation of atmospheric precipitation many times,and formed a large quantity of karst caves serving as hydrocarbon reservoir.However,drilling in Tahe area showed that many large karst caves,small pores and fractures are filled by calcite,resulting in decrease in their reservoir ability.Calcite filled in the karst caves has very light oxygen isotopic composition and87Sr/86Sr ratio.Its 18OPDB ranges from 21.2‰to 13.3‰with the average of 16.3‰and its87Sr/86Sr ratio ranges from0.709561 to 0.710070 with the average of 0.709843.The isotope composition showed that calcite is related to atmospheric precipitation.Theoretic analyses indicated that the dissolving and filling actions of the precipitation on carbonate rocks are controlled by both thermodynamic and kinetic mechanisms.Among them,the thermodynamic factor determines that the precipitation during its flow from the earth surface downward plays important roles on carbonate rocks from dissolution to saturation,further sedimentation,and finally filling.In other words,the depth of the karstification development is not unrestricted,but limited by the precipitation beneath the earth surface.On the other hand,the kinetic factor controls the intensity,depth,and breadth of the karstification development,that is,the karstification is also affected by topographic,geomorphologic,climatic factors,the degree of fracture or fault,etc.Therefore,subject to their joint effects,the karstification of the precipitation on the Ordovician carbonate rocks occurs only within a certain depth(most about 200 m)under the unconformity surface,deeper than which carbonate minerals begin to sedimentate and fill the karst caves that were formed previously.     

Presence of carboxylate salts in marine carbonate strata of the Ordos Basin and their impact on hydrocarbon generation evaluation of low TOC, high maturity source rocks

The total organic carbon(TOC)in the marine source rock of the Ordos Basin mostly ranges from 0.2%to 0.5%.The industrial standard commonly states that the TOC value has to be no less than 0.5%(0.4%for high mature or over-mature source rock)to form large petroleum reservoirs.However,gas source correlation indicates that the natural gas in the Jingbian gas field does receive contribution from marine source rocks.In order to determine the effect of carboxylate salts(or called as organic acid salts)on TOC in highly mature source rocks with low TOC value,we sampled the Ordovician marine source rock and the Permian transitional facies source rock in one drilled well in the southern Ordos Basin and performed infrared and GC-MS analysis.It is found that both kerogen-derived organic acids and carboxylate salt-conversed organic acids exist in both marine and transitional facies source rocks.The carboxylate salt-conversed organic acids mainly come from the complete acidification of carboxylate salts,which confirms the presence of carboxylate salts in the marine source rocks.Although the C16:O peak is the main peak for the organic acids both before and after acidification,the carboxylate salt-conversed organic acids have much less relative abundance ahead of C16:O compared with that of the kerogen-based and free organic acids.This observation suggests that the kerogen-based and free organic acids mainly decarboxylate to form lower carboxylic acids,whereas the carboxylate salt-conversed organic acids mainly break down into paraffins.By using calcium hexadecanoate as the reference to quantify the kerogen-derived and carboxylate salt-conversed organic acids,the high TOC(>2.0%)marine source rocks have low carboxylate salt content and the low TOC(0.2%–0.5%)marine source rocks contain high content of carboxylate salt.Therefore,for the marine source rocks with 0.2%–0.5%TOC,the carboxylate salts may be a potential gas source at high maturity stage.     

GPS在地壳形变和板块运动监测中的应用

简要介绍了GPS在现代板块构造运动中的应用及其进展:GPS对于地球参考框架的建立和维持发挥着重要的作用;大量地壳运动监测网的建立使得GPS成为监测地壳运动强有力的工具;全球性、全天候的GPS卫星测高将在现代板块构造运动的监测中发挥重要作用;高精度的IGS产品为国际动力学服务提供坚实的数据基础。