Prediction in Real Time of the 2000 July 14 Heliospheric Shock Wave and its Companions During the `Bastille' Epoch*

Prediction of solar-generated disturbances and their three-dimensional propagation through interplanetary space continues to present a vitally important operational space weather forecasting objective. This paper presents the first successful real-time prediction of a series of major heliospheric shock waves at Earth, including the one from the 14 July 2000 (`Bastille Day') flare. An ensemble of three models and their predictions were distributed to a world-wide group of interested scientists as part of an informal Internet space weather forecast research program. Two of the models, STOA (Shock Time of Arrival) and ISPM (Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model), presently in operation by the US Air Force Weather Agency, provided predictions of shock arrival time (SAT) that were, respectively, 0.5 hours after and 3.7 hours before the observed arrival. The third model, HAFv.2 (Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2.0) predicted a time 0.3 hours after the observed shock arrival time (14:37 UT, 15 July 2000). Of primary interest to this study is the third model, firstly in terms of its capability of propagating shocks through non-uniform solar wind conditions, and secondly, in terms of its ability to integrate multiple solar events and display them graphically along with the background solar wind. This latter capability was brought to bear on ten real-time-reported flares, some with CMEs (coronal mass ejections) that took place as companions to the Bastille flare during the period 7–15 July 2000. Some limited statistics are given regarding the three models' shock arrival prediction capability at Earth, as an extension of our earlier studies with this three model ensemble in the prediction of SAT. HAFv.2, however, was able to describe not only the ten events and their interaction as measured at Earth, but also at the spacecraft NEAR (orbiting the asteroid, Eros, at 1.8 AU), and CASSINI (en route, at 4.0 AU, to Saturn). Several important points are noted: (1) this epoch represents a small statistical sample that should be expanded; and (2) the three models, based on theory, empiricism, and simulations represent the state of the art that should presage a similar community process. This paper was presented earlier as an Invited Talk at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 14–19, 2000, in San Francisco, CA, U.S.A.toward space weather objectives in the Sun-Earth domain. Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1014200719867     

EFFECT OF LIGHT INTENSITY ON THE TOTAL LIPID AND FATTY ACID COMPOSITION OF SIX STRAINS OF MARINE DIATOMS

The effect of light intensity ( 1500 Ix and 5000 Ix) on the total lipid and fatty acid composition of six strains of marine diatoms Cylindrotheca fusiformis (B211 ), Phaeodactylum tricornutum (Bl14, Bl18 and B221) Nitzschia closterium (B222) and Chaetoceros gracilis (B13) was investigated.The total lipids of B13, Bl14, and B211 grown at 5000 Ix were lower than those grown at 1500 Ix. No evident changes were observed in Bl18, B221 and B222. Fatty acid composition changed considerably at different light intensity although no consistent correlation between the relative proportion of a single FA and light intensity. The major fatty acids of the 6 strains were 14:0, 16:0, 16:l(n- 7) and 20:5(n-3) . Cylindrothecafusiformis had high percentage of 20:4n - 6 (9.2 - 10.9% ) . The total polyunsaturated fatty acid /rl all 6 strains decreased with increasing light intensity. The percentage of the highly unsaturated fatty acid eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) decreased with increasing light intensity in all strains except Chaetoceros gracilis.     

广东省拖网网囊调查

为实施中华人民共和国国家标准《南海区拖网网囊最小网目尺寸》,对广东省范围内拖网网囊现状进行摸底调查,结果表明,广东省沿海拖网渔船现用网囊网目尺寸(内径)在16.7～35.2 mm范围内,总体平均为27 mm,均未能达到1989年国家技术监督局发布的中华人民共和国国家标准--《南海区拖网网囊最小网目尺寸》--内径39 mm.     

Common Proper Motion Search for Faint Companions Around Early-Type Field Stars – Progress Report

The multiplicity of early-type stars is still not well established. The derived binary fraction is different for individual star forming regions, suggesting a connection with the age and the environment conditions. The few studies that have investigated this connection do not provide conclusive results. To fill in this gap, we started the first detailed adaptive-optic-assisted imaging survey of early-type field stars to derive their multiplicity in a homogeneous way. The sample has been extracted from the Hipparcos Catalog and consists of 341 BA-type stars within ∼300 pc from the Sun. We report the current status of the survey and describe a Monte-Carlo simulation that estimates the completeness of our companion detection.     

元岭金矿蚀变破碎带特征及其找矿意义

根据对元岭金矿三条蚀变破碎带一般地质特征、微量元素特征的对比研究，并借鉴邻近矿区蚀变破碎带的矿化特征，本文阐明了元岭蚀变破碎带矿化的有利构造部位，总结了蚀变破碎带特征与矿化强度之间的关系，指出蚀变破碎带的矿化蚀变元素为中低温组合，矿化蚀变愈强则参与元素的种类愈多、数量愈大。围岩性质对矿化蚀变有一定影响，围岩中的易迁移亲铜元素和亲硫铁族无素对矿化有利。据此，为进一步成矿预测、评价蚀变破碎带的含矿性提供依据。     

The apparent copper complexing capacity of seawater and the interaction of copper with humic matter

The anodic stripping voltammetry with physically-coating mercury film electrode was used to investigate the complexing action of trace heavy metals in seawater with organic ligands. The apparent copper complexing capacity of seawater was determined by titrating the organic ligands in natural seawater with standard ionic copper solution. The complexing actions of copper in seawater with humic acid (HA) or fulvic acid (FA) were investigated by titrating copper in seawater with HA or FA solution. The equilibrium time, electrodeposition potential, and effect of pH etc. were investigated respectively. The results show that the interaction of copper in seawater with organic matter is a fast process. At natural pH, HA or FA tend to act with copper in seawater to form nonlabile complexes. During experimental electrode process, these complexes did not significantly dissociate. The experimental results were calculated according to 1∶1 complex formation.     

The global joule heat production rate and the AE index

The accuracy of the AE index as a measure of the joule heat production rate is examined for a typical substorm event on 18 March 1978 by estimating the global joule heat production rate, as a function of time, using data obtained from the IMS six meridian chains. In spite of the fact that the AE index had had an initial slow growth which was followed by a rapid growth, the joule heat production rate attained a high level during the slow growth and thus their variations were considerably different from those of the AE index. Therefore, although the AE index is statistically linearly related to the global joule heat production rate, one should be cautious in assuming that details of time variations of the AE index during individual events represent those of the joule heat production rate.     

CLIMATIC TREND INDICATED BY VARIATIONS OF GLACIERS AND LAKES IN THE TIANSHAN MOUNTAINS

ＣＬＩＭＡＴＩＣＴＲＥＮＤＩＮＤＩＣＡＴＥＤＢＹＶＡＲＩＡＴＩＯＮＳＯＦＧＬＡＣＩＥＲＳＡＮＤＬＡＫＥＳＩＮＴＨＥＴＩＡＮＳＨＡＮＭＯＵＮＴＡＩＮＳ￥ＨｕＲｕｊｉ；ＹａｎｇＣｈｕａｎｄｅ；ＭａＨｏｎｇ；ＪｉａｎｇＦｅｎｇｑｉｎｇ（ＸｉｎｊｉａｎｇＩｎ...     

差分观测与伪距观测的定位精度

严格论证了在对空间或地面目标的定位中,利用伪距测量观测模型的几何因子大于用台站间一次差分观测模型的几何因子.此外,台站间完全差分测量观测的定位精度优于不完全测量情形的定位精度.这些结果给人们在实际工作中采取何种定位方式提供了可靠的理论依据.