Characterization,modeling, and remediation of karst in a changing environment

This introductory editorial paper provides a review and prospective outlook of the achievements and challenges in karst research under a changing environment. A brief discussion of the past and future karst research has been focused on: (1) data and new technologies; (2) modeling of karst flow and reactive transport; (3) responses of karst hydrosystems to climate variability and changes across scales.     

Spatial and temporal analyses of air pollutants and meteorological driving forces in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region,China

Due to its negative impact on the living environment of human beings, ambient air pollution has become a global challenge to human health. In this study, surface observations of six criteria air pollutants, including PM_2.5, PM₁₀, SO₂, NO₂, CO and O₃, were collected to investigate the spatial and temporal variation in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region during 2013–2016 and to explore the relationships between atmospheric pollutants and meteorological variables using quantile regression model (QRM) and multiple linear regression model (MLRM). The results show that BTH region has experienced significant air pollution, and the southern part generally has more severe conditions. The annual average indicates clear decreasing trends of the particulate matters, SO₂ and CO concentrations over the last 4 years and slight increasing trends of NO₂ and O₃ in several cities. The seasonal and monthly characteristics indicate that the concentrations of five species reach their maxima in the winter and their minima in the summer, whereas O₃ has the opposite behaviour. Finally, the pseudo R² values show that the QRMs have the best performance in the winter, followed by spring, fall, and summer. Specifically, all the meteorological factors have significant impacts on air pollution but change with pollutants and seasons. The MLRM results are generally consistent with the QRM results in all seasons, and the inconsistencies are more common in the fall and winter. The results of this research provide foundational knowledge for predicting the response of air quality to climate change in the BTH region.     

Development of efficiently coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical model to predict hydraulic fracture morphology in heavy oil reservoirs

The aim of the study involves examining the effect of heavy oil viscosity on fracture geometry in detail by establishing a heavy oil fracturing model and conventional fracturing model based on thermal–hydraulic–mechanical (THM) coupled theory, Walther viscosity model, and K–D–R temperature model. We consider viscosity and density within the heavy oil fracturing model as functions of pressure and temperature while that as constants within the conventional fracturing model. A heavy oil production well is set as an example to analyze the differences between the two models to account for the thermo-poro-elastic effect. The results show that temperature exhibits the most significant influence on the heavy oil viscosity while the influence of pressure is the least. In addition, a cooling area with a width of 0–1 m and varied length is generated near the fracture. The heavy oil viscosity increases sharply in this area, thereby indicating an area of viscosity increment. The heavy oil viscosity increases faster and is closer to wellbore, and a high viscosity increment reduces the mobility of the heavy oil and prevents the fracturing fluid from entering into the reservoir. The special viscosity distribution results in significant differences in pore pressure, oil saturation, and changing trends between these two models. In the heavy oil reservoir fracturing model, the thermal effect completely exceeds the influence of pore elasticity, and the values of the fracture length, width, and static pressure exceed those calculated in the conventional fracturing model. Thus, a comparison of the measured values indicates that the results obtained by considering viscosity as a function of temperature and pressure are more accurate. Therefore, the results of this study are expected to provide good guidelines for the design of heavy oil fracturing.     

印度尼西亚苏门答腊岛Woyla金矿流体包裹体研究及矿床成因分析

印度尼西亚Woyla金矿床位于西苏门答腊地体北段,为一中型规模的金矿床。本文通过对含矿石英脉开展详细的流体包裹体显微测温、成分分析,结合石英的H-O同位素和黄铁矿的S同位素特征分析,结果如下：其中,流体包裹体研究结果表明,含金石英脉中的石英主要发育气液两相包裹体,包裹体均一温度变化范围为152～324℃,集中在200～280℃。盐度为(0.88～6.16)wt%NaCleqv,集中在(1.00～3.00)wt%NaCleqv,成矿流体密度为0.70～0.94g/cm3,平均为0.82g/cm3。成矿压力为9.63～25.84MPa,平均值为18.37 MPa。成矿深度为0.96～2.58km,平均为1.86km,以上显示Woyla矿床成矿流体具有中低温低盐度和浅成的特征。包裹体气、液相成分测定显示气相成分以H2、N2、CO 、CO2、CH4和H2O为主;液相成分中阳离子以Na+、K+和Ca2+为主,阴离子以富SO42-和Cl-为特征,成矿流体属Cl--SO42--Ca2+-K+型。氢氧同位素测定显示成矿流体δ18DV-SMOW=-78.3‰～-92.4‰,δ18OH2O=-3.0‰～-5.5‰,主要来自大气降水,可能有少量岩浆水参与。黄铁矿硫同位素组成为-0.21‰～1.22‰,平均值为0.34‰,说明成矿物质的S具有深源岩浆硫的特征。结合矿床地质特征和成矿流体研究,首次提出Woyla金矿床属典型的低硫型浅成低温热液型金矿床。     

Evaluating climate change adaptation efforts on the US 50 states’ hazard mitigation plans

Climate change brings uncertain risks of climate-related natural hazards. The US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA in Climate change: long-term trends and their implications for emergency management, 2011. https://www.fema.gov/pdf/about/programs/oppa/climate_change_paper.pdf) has issued a policy directive to integrate climate change adaptation actions into hazard mitigation programs, policies, and plans. However, to date there has been no comprehensive empirical study to examine the extent to which climate change issues are integrated into state hazard mitigation plans (SHMPs). This study develops 18 indicators to examine the extent of climate change considerations in the 50 SHMPs. The results demonstrate that these SHMPs treat climate change issues in an uneven fashion, with large variations present among the 50 states. The overall plan quality for climate change considerations was sustained at an intermediate level with regard to climate change-related awareness, analysis, and actions. The findings confirm that climate change concepts and historic extreme events have been well recognized by the majority of SHMPs. Even though they are not specific to climate change, mitigation and adaptation strategies that can help reduce climate change risks have been adopted in these plans. However, the plans still lack a detailed assessment of climate change and more incentives for collaboration strategies beyond working with emergency management agencies.     

融雪洪水跳跃变异对其参数估计不确定性影响分析

利用Pettitt非参数检验法和Mann-Kendall非参数趋势检验法,分析年最大洪峰流量序列的非一致性,确定序列的变异形式,采用“分解-合成”理论对其进行一致性修正,得到过去、现状两种条件下年最大洪峰流量序列,根据贝叶斯理论对序列一致性修正前后参数不确定性进行估计,并对其预报区间优良性进行评价。研究结果表明：年最大洪峰流量序列变异点发生在1993年,序列整体上升趋势不显著,在1957-1993年子序列呈显著下降趋势,而1994-2006年子序列变化趋势不显著,跳跃变异为序列主要变异形式;给出了实测、还原及还现序列参数后验分布估计值及95%置信区间,将其结合优化适线法进行P-Ⅲ型频率分析,得到修正前后设计频率年最大洪峰流量预报区间估计值;还原、还现序列与实测序列相比,预报区间覆盖率均提高24%,平均带宽分别减少39.59%、23.17%,平均偏移幅度分别减少28.45%、11.39%。通过对非一致性年最大洪峰流量序列还原/还现计算,可减小参数估计不确定性对其计算产生的影响,从而提高预报区间的可靠性。     

江南造山带黄金洞金矿床成矿机制:矿物形成环境与金成矿物理化学条件制约

黄金洞超大型金矿床位于江南造山带中段,赋存于新元古界浅变质岩系中,受控于NNE-NE向长平断裂带,金资源储量达100吨。该矿床可由南至北分为金福、金塘、杨山庄和曲溪矿段,主要矿化类型有石英-硫化物脉型、构造角砾岩型和黄铁毒砂绢英岩型。金属矿物主要发育有自然金、毒砂、黄铁矿、黄铜矿、闪锌矿、方铅矿、磁黄铁矿等;非金属矿物有石英、绢云母、方解石和菱铁矿等,其中金主要以自然金与不可见金形式存在。根据野外与镜下观察,金成矿作用分为Ⅰ石英-金-毒砂-黄铁矿、Ⅱ石英-金-多金属硫化物-白钨矿和Ⅲ石英-辉锑矿-绿泥石3个阶段,前二者为主要成矿阶段。曲溪矿段Ⅱ阶段毒砂相对不发育、而磁黄铁矿和自然金显著发育,绿泥石主要发育于Ⅲ阶段中,与辉锑矿及闪锌矿共生。根据不同矿段各阶段毒砂与Ⅲ阶段绿泥石成分,计算其温度、lgf(S_2)与lgf(O_2),可见Ⅰ阶段成矿温度与硫逸度高于Ⅱ阶段:杨山庄矿段两阶段成矿温度分别为300～378℃、260～300℃,lgf(S_2)分别为-11～-7.2、-11.9～-10.1;金塘两阶段成矿温度为240～311℃、245～298℃;金福Ⅱ阶段成矿温度上限为297℃;曲溪矿段成矿温度为268～368℃,Ⅱ阶段毒砂lgf(S_2)与Ⅲ阶段绿泥石lgf(O_2)分别为-13.2～-8.7、-50.9～-40.1。根据不同阶段矿物之间的相互关系及成矿温度与硫逸度演化特征,推断Ⅰ、Ⅱ成矿阶段伴随强烈的硫化作用,金以类质同象方式进入毒砂和黄铁矿中,形成不可见金;其中Ⅱ阶段由于成矿流体压力骤降,含金流体发生相分离作用,H2S等气体大量逃逸,导致成矿流体中硫含量骤降,加以硫化作用持续消耗流体中的硫,促进了含金络合物分解与自然金的沉淀。     

Geochronology,Geochemistry and Petrogenesis of the Pungco Ophiolite,TibetEI北大核心CSCD

Although the middle section of the Bangong-Nujiang suture zone has been intensively investigated, its tectonic framework and evolution is still controversy. The Pungco ophiolite has a relative complete ophiolitic complex, which is an ideal specimen for studying this tricky problem. LA-ICP-MS U-Pb dating of zircons from the diabasic rock yielded an age of 159.0±2.1 Ma. This age suggests that the Pungco ophiolite was formed in the Late Jurassic, indicating the development of the Late Jurassic ophiolite in the third ophiolitic subzone. The whole-rock major and trace element compositions of diabasic and basaltic rocks exhibit mixed arc and N-MORB geochemical characteristics. Two diabasic samples have (87Sr/86Sr)i values of 0.7055 and 0.7063 and εNd(t) values of 11.28 and 11.84, respectively. The geochemical signatures and formation age of the Pungco ophiolite suggest that this ophiolite was probably produced in an active continental fore-arc setting. It originated from a N-MORB-like depleted mantle source with the involvement of subducted-slab fluids. Considering the regional geological background, the Pungco ophiolite was likely generated during the southward subduction of the Bangong-Nujiang Tethyan oceanic lithosphere beneath the Lhasa terrane, and belongs to a regional archipelagic arc-basin system together with the other Early Jurassic-Early Cretaceous ophiolites from the northern Tibet Lake district. © 2018, Science Press. All right reserved.     

Spatio-temporal Distribution of Three Kinds of Flash Droughts over Agricultural Land in China from 1983 to 2015

At present, flash drought occurs globally and regionally and causes a lot of socio-economic loss in a very short time. Therefore, flash drought has been regarded as one of the hottest issues in drought research. However, flash drought monitoring, prediction and decision-making have encountered a lot of challenges due to its multiple driven factors and complex spatio-temporal process. Aiming at this problem, this paper focused on the agricultural land in China, and analyzed the spatio-temporal distribution of three kinds of flash droughts (i.e., precipitation-deficit, high-temperature, and composite flash droughts) from 1983 to 2015. We studied the occurrences, duration, spatial distribution, temporal distribution, and trend of all three kinds of flash droughts. Our results demonstrated that, the occurrences of flash drought agricultural land in China increased year by year, among which high-temperature flash drought increased dramatically; duration of flash droughts had different trends, but the variations were relatively smooth; Northeast China was identified as a vulnerable area of flash drought, indicating more flash drought events and longer duration; flash droughts in China were found to concentrate in spring (high-temperature drought) and summer seasons (precipitation-deficit drought). This study is helpful for building new flash drought monitoring method and system, and it is also valuable for flash drought preparedness on regional scale.     

两方程湍流模型对内背风波数值模拟的影响

为了深入理解非静力近似下的波-湍相互作用问题,本研究在σ坐标的海洋环境研究和预报模型(MERF)中引入常用的Mellor-Yamada两方程湍混合参数化方案(MY2.5),评估垂向湍混合对小尺度背风波传播过程的影响.瞬时状态场的模拟结果表明,无论是否为非静力近似条件,上述湍参数化方案的引入都会减弱背风波传播的模拟效果.从时间平均场的试验结果来看,垂向湍混合过程会显著减小非静力近似和静力近似之间的差异.此外,能量收支分析的诊断结果表明,MY2.5方案会显著抑制陆坡地形下的背风波传播过程,进而将更多的潮能转化到不可逆的湍混合过程中.