北京市奥运期间气象灾害风险承受与控制能力分析

针对北京市奥运会期间的7种主要气象灾害(雷电、冰雹、大风、高温、暴雨、大雾和霾灾害),建立了气象灾害风险承受能力与风险控制能力评价的指标体系.经过专家评分,获取7种气象灾害的评价指标所对应的分值.利用层次分析法,计算评价指标的权重系数.最后得到7种气象灾害评价指标的加权平均值作为其风险承受能力与风险控制能力系数.利用灾害模数、经济易损模数、生命易损模数3个指标进行北京市奥运期间18个区县空间易损度区划分析.结果表明:北京市奥运会期间,高温灾害和暴雨灾害的风险承受能力与风险控制能力最弱;雷电灾害和大雾灾害的承受与控制能力中等;冰雹灾害和霾灾害较强;大风灾害最强.易损度空间差异分析表明,城区(东城区、西城区、崇文区和宣武区)、朝阳区和海淀区为高易损性区域;丰台区、石景山区、房山区、昌平区、顺义区和大兴区为中易损性区域;门头沟区、通州区、平谷区、怀柔区、密云县和延庆县为低易损性区域.     

Denitrification in Qi'ao Island coastal zone, the Zhujiang Estuary in China

Samples of sediments and the overlying water were collected in the Qi'ao Island coastal zone, the Zhujiang (Pearl River) Estuary (ZE). Denitrification rates, sediment oxygen demand (SOD) , and fluxes of inorganic nitrogen compounds were investigated with N2 flux method, using a self-designed continuous flow through and auto-sampling system. The results indicate that the denitrification rates varied between 222 and 908 μmol/(m2·h) with an average of 499 μmol/(m2·h). During incubation, the sediments absorbed dissolved oxygen in the overlying water with SOD ranging from 300 to 2 363 μmol/(m2·h). The denitrification rates were highly correlated with the SOD (r2 =0.77) regardless of the NO3- + NO2- concentrations in the overlying water, organ- ic carbon contents in sediments and water temperature, suggesting that the SOD was probably the main environ-mental factor controlling the denitrification in the Qi'ao Island coastal zone. There was a net flux of NO3- + NO2-into the sediments from the overlying water. The NH4+ flux from sediments into water as the result of mineraliza-tion was between 12. 3 and 210. 3 μmol/(m2·h) ,which seems limited by both organic carbon content in sedi-ment and dissolved oxygen concentration in the overlying water.     

Methods Comparison for Microsatellite Marker Development： Different Isolation Methods, Different Yield Efficiency

Microsatellite markers have become one kind of the most important molecular tools used in various researches. A large number of microsatellite markers are required for the whole genome survey in the fields of molecular ecology, quantitative genetics and genomics. Therefore, it is extremely necessary to select several versatile, low-cost, efficient and time- and labor-saving methods to develop a large panel of microsatellite markers. In this study, we used Zhikong scallop (Chlamys farreri) as the target species to compare the efficiency of the five methods derived from three strategies for microsatellite marker development. The results showed that the strategy of constructing small insert genomic DNA library resulted in poor efficiency, while the microsatellite-enriched strategy highly improved the isolation efficiency. Although the mining public database strategy is time- and cost-saving, it is difficult to obtain a large number of microsatellite markers, mainly due to the limited sequence data of non-model species deposited in public databases. Based on the results in this study, we recommend two methods, microsatellite-enriched library construction method and FIASCO-colony hybridization method, for large-scale microsatellite marker development. Both methods were derived from the mi-crosatellite-enriched strategy. The experimental results obtained from Zhikong scallop also provide the reference for microsatellite marker development in other species with large genomes.     

东北地区水稻障碍型低温冷害变化对区域气候增暖的响应

利用东北地区153个气象站1961—2010年逐日气温资料,采用统计学方法分析了水稻障碍型低温冷害的气候变化特征及其对区域气候变暖的响应情况。结果表明,东北大部地区水稻障碍型低温冷害事件呈减少趋势,但区域性较为明显;障碍型低温冷害对关键发育期气温变化响应较为敏感,二者呈显著的负相关关系,表现为气温每升高1 ℃,东北地区冷害减少35个站次。东北地区关键发育期气温均呈上升趋势,但吉林西部地区障碍型冷害却随之增加,分析了关键发育期气温变率和气候变率,将其解释为局地障碍型冷害增加主要受气候变率增大的影响,逐日气温变率对其影响不大。     

震级标度的不一致与震源的复杂性

矩震级标度是从地震矩换算过来的,换算关系中地震应力降与剪切模量估算的不准确会对矩震级标度产生影响.本文利用1976年1月~2006年12月发生在东经75°~135°,北纬15°~55°的M≥5地震的矩震级与面波震级,探讨了应力降与剪切模量的比值Δσ/μ在中国及邻区以及在不同震级下的分布特征.中国大陆及邻区的Δσ/μ值分布较分散,不同地区的Δσ/μ值明显不同,且绝大部分值大于矩震级和地震矩换算关系中使用的全球平均值.对于同一地区不同震级的地震,其Δσ/μ值也不一样,震级大,Δσ/μ值通常也大.研究认为剪切模量和地震应力降的估计对矩震级标度的影响不能忽略.     

Capsizing Probability of Dead Ship Stability in Beam Wind and Wave for Damaged Ship

The International Maritime Organization has developed the second-generation intact stability criteria. Thus, damage stability criteria can be established in the future. In order to identity the capsizing probability of damaged ship under dead ship condition, this paper investigates two methods that can be used to research the capsizing probability in time domain, which mainly focus on the nonlinear righting lever GZ curve solution. One method subjects the influence of damaged tanks on the hull shape down to the wind and wave, and the other method is consistent with the real-time calculation of the GZ curve. On the basis of one degree of freedom rolling equation, the solution is Monte Carlo method, and a damaged fishery bureau vessel is taken as a sample ship. In addition, the results of the time-domain capsizing probability under different loading conditions are compared and analyzed. The relation of GM and heeling angle with the capsizing probability is investigated, and its possible reason is analyzed. On the basis of combining the time-domain flooding process with the capsizing probability calculation, this research aims to lay the foundation for the study of capsizing probability in time domain under dead ship condition, as well as provide technical support for capsizing mechanism of dead ship stability and damage stability criteria establishment in waves.     

多普勒天气雷达风场产品在螺旋度计算中的应用

本文介绍了一种利用新一代天气雷达风场产品VWP计算螺旋度的方法,通过对两次大面积降水个例的螺旋度诊断分析发现,利用VWP风场产品计算的螺旋度具有较高的时间分辨率,大面积降水的螺旋度变化趋势与降水变化趋势比较吻合,螺旋度变化一般提前于降水变化,有2—3 h的提前预报量;螺旋度数值的大小与降水量的大小一般没有明显线性关系;螺旋度可以作为观测雷达站上空风场随高度变化的一个敏感因子;利用VWP风场产品来作为计算螺旋度的风场资料是可行的,比起其它风场资料更适于短时(临近)预报的业务化工作。     

Changes in air pollutants during the COVID-19 lockdown in Beijing:Insights from a machine-learning technique and implications for future control policy

基于2015-2020年北京35个环境空气站和20个气象站观测资料,应用机器学习方法(随机森林算法)分离了气象条件和源排放对大气污染物浓度的影响.结果发现,为应对疫情采取的隔离措施使北京2020年春节期间大气污染物浓度降低了35.1％-51.8％;其中,背景站氮氧化物和一氧化碳浓度的降幅最大,超过了以往报道较多的交通站...     

沪宁高速公路路面温度变化特征及统计模型

使用2006年7月-2007年6月沪宁高速公路沿线梅村和仙人山站附近的逐分钟路面温度、气温、湿度、风向、风速、降水气象资料, 分析了梅村和仙人山不同季节和不同天气状况下路面温度的日变化特征。结果表明:不同季节路面温度和气温具有明显的日变化;日出至日落时段,路面温度与气温有较大差异。在此基础上,应用逐步回归方法建立了梅村和仙人山最高和最低路面温度统计模型, 得出最低路面温度模型模拟结果与实况的变化趋势接近,误差绝对值不超过2℃, 具有很好的实际应用价值; 而最高路面温度模型在一定程度上模拟结果偏差较大,实际应用中需进行适当修订。     

Diurnal Variations of Carbon Dioxide, Methane, and Nitrous Oxide Vertical Fluxes in a Subtropical Estuarine Marsh on Neap and Spring Tide Days

Measuring fluxes of greenhouse gases (GHGs) is fundamental to estimating their impact on global warming. We examined diurnal variations of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (N₂O) vertical fluxes in a tidal marsh ecosystem. Measurements were recorded on neap and spring tide days in April and September 2010 in the Shanyutan wetland of the Min River estuary, southeast China. Here, we define a positive flux as directing into the atmosphere. CH₄ fluxes on the diurnal scale were positive throughout, and CH₄ emissions into the atmosphere on neap tide days were higher than on spring tide days. CH₄ releases from the marsh ecosystem on neap tide days were higher in the daytime; however, on spring tide days, daily variations of CH₄ emissions were more complex. The marsh ecosystem plays a twofold role in both releasing and assimilating CO₂ and N₂O gases on the diurnal scale. Average CO₂ fluxes were positive on the daily scale both on neap and spring days and were greater on the neap tide days than on spring tide days. Diurnal variations of N₂O fluxes fluctuated more. Over the diurnal period, soil temperature markedly controlled variations of CH₄ emissions compared to other soil factors, such as salinity and redox potential. Tidal water height was a key factor influencing GHGs fluxes at the water–air interface. Compared with N₂O, the diurnal course of CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes in the marsh ecosystem appeared to be directly controlled by marsh plants. These results have implications for sampling and scaling strategies for estimating GHGs fluxes in tidal marsh ecosystems.