Two Methods for Predicting Reliability Index and Critical Probabilistic Slip Surface of Soil Slopes

Two methods of reliability analysis of soil slopes are studied, and the representative flow charts of both methods are illustrated. Method 1 can predict the reliability index and the critical probabilistic slip surface directly and it is computational efficient, but it needs the development of new codes for integrating the reliability analysis code and the slope stability code. Method 2 makes the reliability analysis code call the slope stability analysis code directly, and each code can be considered as an intact part. The main result of Method 2 is the reliability index of soil slope. Combined with the proposed method for locating the critical slip surface, Method 2 can also predict the probabilistic slip surface. Although Method 2 needs much more callings of the subprogram of slope stability analysis code, it needs not the developing of new computer program. Thus, Method 2 is easy to use and can be applied to different reliability analysis methods and slope stability analysis methods.     

Characteristics and Genetic Mechanisms of Overpressure in the Depressions of Bohai Bay Basin, China

The distribution and genetic mechanisms of abnormal pressures in the Bohai Bay Basin were systematically analyzed. Abnormal pressures are widely developed in the Bohai Bay Basin, primarily in the Paleogene E2s4, E2s3, Es1, and Ed formations. From the onshore area of the Bohai Bay Basin to the center of the Bozhong area, the top depth of the overpressured zone in each depression increases gradually, the overpressured strata in each depression gradually move to younger formations, and the pressure structure successively alters from single-bottom- overpressure to double-bottom-overpressure and finally to double-top-overpressure. The distribution of overpressured area is consistent with the sedimentary migration controlled by the tectonic evolution of the Bohai Bay Basin, which is closely related to the hydrocarbon-generation capability of active source rocks. The overpressured strata are consistent with the source-rock intervals in each depression; the top of the overpressured zone is synchronous with the hydrocarbon generation threshold in each depression; the hydrocarbon generation capability is positively correlated with the overpressure magnitude in each formation. Undercompaction was the main mechanism of overpressure for depressions with fluid pressure coefficients less than 1.2, whereas hydrocarbon generation was the main mechanism for depressions with fluid pressure coefficients greater than 1.5.     

湘南荷花坪锡多金属矿床成矿年代研究

荷花坪锡多金属矿床是本世纪初在南岭中段湘南地区新发现的一个大型矿床,区内的锡多金属矿化产在王仙岭岩体东南内、外接触带,已发现有Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ和Ⅳ号4个主要锡多金属矿体。其中,Ⅰ、Ⅱ和Ⅳ号矿体由早期矽卡岩型和晚期蚀变碎裂岩型矿石组成,Ⅲ号矿体则由独立产出的蚀变碎裂岩型矿石组成,且包含有部分碎裂花岗斑岩。以往研究已对Ⅳ号矿体中的矽卡岩型矿石和Ⅲ号矿体中含矿斑岩脉分别采用辉钼矿Re-Os法和锆石SHRIMP U-Pb法进行了测年,获得的年龄分别为224.0±1.9Ma和142±2Ma。本文补充了晚期蚀变碎裂岩型矿石的~(40)Ar/~(39)Ar测年,结果显示,Ⅱ号矿体中蚀变碎裂岩型矿石白云母样品和石英样品的坪年龄分别为151.88±1.58Ma和155.39±7.04Ma;Ⅳ号矿体中蚀变碎裂岩型矿石石英样品的坪年龄为156.94±1.64Ma。结合前人研究资料综合分析,认为荷花坪矿区存在印支晚期(224Ma)、燕山早期(151~156Ma)和燕山晚期(142Ma)三期成矿作用,分别与区内印支期中粗粒含电气石黑云母花岗岩、燕山早期中粗粒黑云母花岗岩和燕山晚期花岗斑岩脉有关,不同期成岩、成矿作用的构造环境均为岩石圈的拉张伸展。湘南地区印支期(205~224Ma)基性岩浆活动及荷花坪矿床印支期成岩、成矿过程中均有幔源物质的参与,它们共同指示南岭地区中生代构造体制的转换或岩石圈伸展减薄可能始于印支主期(230~244Ma)之后的224Ma左右,即晚三叠世。     

基于客观分析的多源卫星叶绿素a浓度产品融合方法研究

本文基于Aqua/MODIS、Terra/MODIS和Envisat/MERIS多源卫星叶绿素a浓度产品,研究了客观分析融合方法,制作了西北太平洋海域(0°~50°N,100°~150°E)叶绿素a浓度融合产品,并从有效数据空间覆盖率和产品精度两个方面对融合方法进行了评价。与单传感器以及欧洲太空局发布的GSM模型业务化融合产品相比,客观分析融合产品空间覆盖率明显提高;与收集的2002-2012年间叶绿素a浓度实测数据比较,GSM模型业务化融合产品的匹配数据点为578个,偏差为-0.20 mg/m3,均方根误差为0.37 mg/m3,客观分析法融合产品的匹配数据点为1432个,偏差为-0.21 mg/m3,均方根误差为0.36 mg/m3。结果表明:本文研究的客观分析融合方法在保证融合产品精度的同时可显著提高产品的空间覆盖率,在海洋水色融合应用前景广阔。     

CMIP5模式对中国近海海表温度的模拟及预估

基于观测和再分析资料;利用多种指标和方法评估了国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）中21个模式对中国近海海温的月、季节和年际变化模拟能力。多模式集合能够再现气候平均意义下近海海温的空间分布特征;但量值上存在一定的低估。在渤海和黄海;集合平均与观测差别比较明显。在年际尺度上;与观测数据对比;模式模拟海温与Niño3指数相关性较小。中国近海海表面温度在1960-2002年有明显的升高趋势;从2003年开始增温趋缓。评估结果表明;ACCESS1.0、BCC-CSM1.1、HadGEM2-ES、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM、FGOALS-g2、CNRM-CM5-2、INMCM4八个模式对中国近海海温的变化有较好的模拟能力。利用ACCESS1.0、INMCM4、BCC-CSM1.1、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM这5个模式结果对中国近海海温未来的变化进行了预估。在RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下;未来近100年中国近海海温有明显升高趋势;最优模式多模式集合平均增温分别可达到1.5℃、3.3℃;净热通量变化和平流变化共同促进了东海升温。     

Solar-, monsoon- and Kuroshio-influenced thermocline depth and sea surface salinity in the southern Okinawa Trough during the past 17,300 years

Factors influencing millennial-scale variability in the thermocline depth (vertical mixing) and sea surface salinity (SSS) of the southern Okinawa Trough (OT) during the past 17,300 years were investigated based on foraminifer oxygen isotope records of the surface dweller Globigerinoides ruber sensu stricto and the thermocline dweller Pulleniatina obliquiloculata in the AMS ¹⁴C dated OKT-3 core. The thermocline depth is influenced by surface thermal buoyancy (heat) flux, in turn controlled by the annual mean insolation at 30°N and the strength of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). Strong insolation and weak EAWM tend to increase buoyancy gain (decrease buoyancy loss), corresponding to shallow thermocline depths, and vice versa. Regional SSS is influenced by the global ice volume, the Kuroshio Current (KC), and vertical mixing. A deep thermocline coincides with a high SSS because strong vertical mixing brings more, saltier subsurface KC water to the surface, and vice versa. Local SSS (excluding the global ice volume effect) became lower in the northern OT than in the southern OT after ~9.2 ka, implying that Changjiang diluted water had stronger influence in the northern sector. SSS show no major changes during the Bølling/Allerød and Younger Dryas events, probably because the KC disturbed the North Atlantic signals. This argues against earlier interpretations of sea surface temperature records of this core. Wavelet and spectral analyses of the Δδ¹⁸O_P-G (δ¹⁸O of P. obliquiloculata minus G. ruber s.s.) and δ¹⁸O_local records display 1,540-, 1,480-, 1,050-, 860-, 640-, and 630-year periods. These are consistent with published evidence of a pervasive periodicity of 1,500 years in global climate as well as EAWM and KC signatures, and a fundamental solar periodicity of 1,000 years and intermediary derived periodicity of 700 years.     

Factors driving riverbed scouring and sedimentation in the Bayangaole to Toudaoguai reaches of the Upper Yellow River

The Inner Mongolia reaches of the Yellow River face problems of severe sedimentation caused by a variety of complex factors. The sedimentation process in those reaches has been characterized using the sediment balance method, and the key factors affecting the process have been analyzed using the correlation analysis method. The results show that during the period 1952–2012 the Bayangaole (Bayan Gol) to Toudaoguai reaches in Inner Mongolia have undergone successive processes of accumulative sedimentation, then relative balance, and then accumulative sedimentation once again. The total annual sedimentation is 12.0341×10⁸ m³, of which accumulations from July to October account for 95.1% and the reaches from Sanhuhekou to Toudaoguai account for 98.5%. The main factor affecting scouring and sedimentation of the Bayangaole to Sanhuhekou reaches is the combined water and sediment condition. The critical conditions for equilibrium are an incoming sediment coefficient < 0.007 kg·s·m^–6 and a flow discharge > 700 m³·s^–1. The main factor affecting scouring and sedimentation of the Sanhuhekou to Toudaoguai reaches is the incoming sediment from the tributaries on the south bank and the combined water and sediment condition of the main stream. The critical conditions of the main stream for maintaining equilibrium status are a flow discharge of the main stream exceeding 800 m³·s^–1 and a comprehensive incoming sediment coefficient < 0.005 kg·s·m^–6. The incoming sediment from the tributaries has little impact on the main stream when the annual sediment load is less than 0.1×10⁸ t. The incoming sediment coefficient of the main stream and the incoming sediment from the tributaries both play vital roles in the riverbed evolution of the Inner Mongolia reaches, but the latter contributes the most.     

Task-oriented information value measurement based on space-time prisms

Recent years have witnessed a large increase in the amount of information available from the Web and many other sources. Such an information deluge presents a challenge for individuals who have to identify useful information items to complete particular tasks in hand. Information value theory (IVT) from economics and artificial intelligence has provided some guidance on this issue. However, existing IVT studies often focus on monetary values, while ignoring the spatiotemporal properties which can play important roles in everyday tasks. In this paper, we propose a theoretical framework for task-oriented information value measurement. This framework integrates IVT with the space-time prism from time geography and measures the value of information based on its impact on an individual’s space-time prisms and its capability of improving task planning. We develop and formalize this framework by extending the utility function from space-time accessibility studies and elaborate it using a simplified example from time geography. We conduct a simulation on a real-world transportation network using the proposed framework. Our research could be applied to improving information display on small-screen mobile devices (e.g., smartwatches) by assigning priorities to different information items.     

Experimental study of motion characteristics of rock slopes with weak intercalation under seismic excitation

In order to investigate the effect of a weak intercalation on slope stability, a large-scale shaking table model test was conducted to study the dynamic response of rock slope models with weak intercalation. The dynamic response of the prototype slopes were studied in laboratory with the consideration of law of similitude. The initiation failure was observed in the rock slope model with a counter-tilt thin-weak intercalation firstly, not in the slope model with a horizontal thin-weak intercalation. Furthermore, it was interesting that the fracture site is shifted from crest top to the slope surface near the weak intercalation, which is different with the location of failure position in a normal layered slope. We also discussed the effect of the dip angle and the thickness of weak intercalation on the failure mechanism and instability mode of the layered rock slope. From the experimental result, it was noted that the stability of the slope with a counter-tilt weak intercalation could be worse than that of the other slopes under seismic excitation. The findings showed the difference of failure in slopes with a horizontal and counter weak intercalation, and implicated the further evaluation of failure of layered slopes caused by seismic loads.