山东水资源分析及趋势预测

通过分析近３９年山东省水资源的历史倾向性、阶段性、周期性,研究了水资源总量及径流量和地下水位的变化特征。结果表明,山东水资源量的年际变化大且呈快速下降态势,其中,地表径流量的下降尤为明显;水资源的变化存在一定的阶段性和周期性。通过分析降水与水资源的关系,发现两者的变化规律一致,但降水对水资源,特别是对地下水分量的影响有一定的持续性。建立均生函数预测模型,对未来水资源总量进行预测显示,１９９８￣２０     

一次弓状降雹回波区流场的反演

通过对一次典型弓状降雹回波区的流场进行反及特点分析,发现用矩不变量法反演出的回波区流场结构,与藤田关于弓状回波的概念模式非常吻合,利用该方法估测出的流场,散度场、涡度场所表现出的信息,与降雹实况是一致的,该研究可为中小尺度强天气的监测,提供高时空分辨率的流场资料。     

中国地区气溶胶的辐射强迫及其气候响应试验

根据国内测定的排放因子数据和国家、部委及各省市统计年鉴公布的排放源数据,得到的中国大陆的1°×1°网格精度的SO2的排放分布,计算了中国地区人为扰动气溶胶的辐射强迫。应用近期开发的二维能量平衡模式计算了由该种气溶胶所引起的中国地区地面温度变化。模式结果表明,最大辐射强迫和最大地面温度变化都集中在中国的沿海和四川地区。最大辐射强迫达3 W/m2。     

星基空间人造飞行器探测概率分析

随着空间飞行器数量的日益增多,空间碰撞的概率也逐步加大。为了确保自身飞行器的安全,同时为了减少对目前在轨的飞行器的干扰,通过某种途径来感知空间飞行器的信息,包括轨道和结构外形等参数,是十分必要的。除了地基手段对空间飞行器进行观测外,星基空间飞行器探测是一种不可或缺的补充手段。文章通过对所掌握的空间飞行器数据库,给出了基于地球低轨道观测卫星情况下,星基空间飞行器探测概率的统计结果。     

Experimental and computational validation and verification of the Stokes–Darcy and continuum pipe flow models for karst aquifers with dual porosity structure

In our previous study, we developed the Stokes–Darcy (SD) model was developed for flow in a karst aquifer with a conduit bedded in matrix, and the Beavers–Joseph (BJ) condition was used to describe the matrix–conduit interface. We also studied the mathematical well‐posedness of a coupled continuum pipe flow (CCPF) model as well as convergence rates of its finite element approximation. In this study, to compare the SD model with the CCPF model, we used numerical analyses to validate finite element discretisation methods for the two models. Using computational experiments, simulation codes implementing the finite element discretisations are then verified. Further model validation studies are based on the results of laboratory experiments. Comparing the results of computer simulations and experiments, we concluded that the SD model with the Beavers–Joseph interface condition is a valid model for conduit–matrix systems. On the other hand, the CCPF model with the value of the exchange parameter chosen within the range suggested in the literature perhaps does not result in good agreement with experimental observations. We then examined the sensitivity of the CCPF model with respect to the exchange parameter, concluding that, as has previously been noted, the model is highly sensitive for small values of the exchange parameter. However, for larger values, the model becomes less sensitive and, more important, also produces results that are in better agreement with experimental observations. This suggests that the CCPF model may also produce accurate simulation results, if one chooses larger values of the exchange parameter than those suggested in the literature. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1982年12月2日耀斑随时间变化的半经验模型

我们利用南京大学太阳塔中的多波段光谱仪,在H_α、H_β和CaⅡ H、K三个波段同时拍到了1982年12月2日日面S15W11处的一个SB级耀斑的光谱。本文给出其中七个时刻的谱线轮廓及有关参数的序列。在非局部热动平衡条件下计算了耀斑随时间变化的半经验模型,结果显示了色球耀斑的演化过程。利用模型得到了一些色球物质蒸发参数,结果同根据SMM的X射线观测所作的估计相一致。     

Effects of engineering geological condition on response of suspension bridges

The geological condition may vary largely from one support to another for a long span bridge. The effect of geological variability and spatial variation produced by propagation and coherence loss of seismic ground motion on the response of long span suspension bridges is investigated in this article. The case of Jiangyin Yangtse River Bridge, a suspension bridge with a main span of 1385 m, is studied in detail. Numerical results show that the geological difference at the supports has a significant effect on the seismic response of long span suspension bridges and, that it is unacceptable to neglect the difference. The effect of the propagation of seismic ground motion on the response of long span suspension bridges is far more important than that of the coherence loss. The response of bridges varies greatly with the horizontal apparent velocity in a very complex way, and there is a critical horizontal velocity for a given response quantity.     

Geochemical study on oil-cracked gases and kerogen-cracked gases (II)—Discrimination methods between oil-cracked gases and kerogen-cracked gases

In the processes of discrimination between oil-cracked gases and kerogen-cracked gases, Behar and Pinzgofer et al.’s results were adopted in the former researches, in which the ratio of C₂/C₃ is basically a constant while the ratio of C₁/C₂ gradually increases in the course of primary cracking of kerogen. Otherwise in the course of secondary cracking of oil, the ratio of C₂/C₃ increases rapidly while C₁/C₂ keeps relatively stable. Our study on analogue experiment shows that, whether it is oil or kerogen, in its process of gas generating by cracking, the ratios of C₂/C₃, C₁/C₂ or C₁/C₃ will all be increased with the growth of thermal conditions. In comparison, the ratio of C₂/C₃, which is affected by genetic type to some comparatively less extent, mainly responds to the maturity of gases, while the value of C₂/C₃ is about 2, and that of C₂/iC₄ is about 10, and the corresponding value of R _o is about 1.5%–1.6%. The influence of gas source on C₂/C₃ is less than that of gas maturity, otherwise C₁/C₂ (or C₁/C₃) is obviously affected by cracking matrices. The ratios of C₁/C₂, C₁/C₃ of oil-cracked gases are less than that of kerogen-cracked gases, under the condition that the ratios of C₂/C₃ are similar in value, so are the value of dryness indexes. There exists wide diffidence between this view and the former discrimination method in theory. The analysis of the spot sample indicates that we can apply the above basic view to dealing efficiently with the problem of the discrimination between oil-cracked gas and kerogen-cracked gas.

     

Creep of saturated materials as a chemically enhanced rate‐dependent damage process

Material behaviour that exhibits characteristics of creep induced by a spontaneous mineral dissolution enhanced by material damage is studied. It is believed that the characteristic rates of the chemical processes involved determine the time‐rate dependence of the resulting strain. A basic model of a combined chemo‐plastic softening and chemically enhanced deviatoric strain hardening for saturated geomaterials is presented. Chemical softening is postulated to occur as a consequence of the net mass removal resulting from dissolution and precipitation of specific minerals occurring at the damage‐generated inter‐phase interfaces. Closed and open systems are discussed. In the former case, deformation at constant stress results entirely from a local compensation mechanism between the chemical softening and strain hardening. The classical three stages of creep are interpreted in terms of mechanisms of dissolution and precipitation, as well as the variation in the reaction surface areas involved in the mass exchange. In an open system, the above local mechanism is enhanced by the removal of mass via diffusion of species affecting the mass balance. Such a system is addressed via a boundary value problem as shown in an example. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of Astronomic Time-latitude Residuals in Earthquake Prediction

After the earthquake (Ms = 6.1) occurred in Luquan county of Yunnan province on April 18, 1985, the relationship between major earthquakes and astronomical time-latitude residuals (ATLR) of a photoelectric astrolabe in Yunnan Observatory was analyzed. ATLR are the rest after deducting the effects of Earth’s whole motion from the observations of time and latitude. It was found that there appeared the anomalies of the ATLR before earthquakes which happened in and around Yunnan, a seismic active region. The reason of the anomalies is possibly from change of the plumb line due to the motion of the groundmass before earthquakes. Afterwards, using studies of the anomalous characters and laws of ATLR, we tried to provide the warning information prior to the occurrence of a few major earthquakes in the region. The significant synchronous anomalies of ATLR of the observatory appeared before the earthquake of magnitude 6.2 in Dayao county of Yunnan province, on July 21, 2003. It has been again verified that the anomalies possibly provide the prediction information for strong earthquakes around the observatory.