浙江中生代浅成热液金银成矿作用的耗散结构模型

浙江中生代主要浅成热液金银矿床在蚀变-矿化过程中的一些物理化学特征参数(如T、P、St和ρ等)呈非线性的变化关系,其控制变量是P、T和PH值.推断条带(或环带)状构造的矿脉(石)是由减压沸腾作用造成的.据Drummond等(1985)沸腾的模拟计算和研究表明,[H+]浓度是决定沸腾热液中的Au、Ag等成矿元素命运的主要因素.因此,可以[H+]浓度(状态变量)作为序参量来反映成矿溶液中Au、Ag浓度的变化趋势;并建立其自组织过程的动力学方程与开放沸腾热液系统Au、Ag沉淀的耗散结构模型.     

基于小波分析的汾河河津站径流与输沙的多时间尺度特征

基于汾河流域19个气象台站1959~2005年的月均降水量、河津站的径流量和输沙量资料,借助小波分析方法研究了降水、径流与输沙序列的多时间尺度特征及它们的耦合关系。结果表明:降水、径流与输沙量具有2~4a、14~18 a左右2个不同尺度的周期变化,且三者的主周期基本一致,即3 a和16 a;3 a尺度上,3个要素曲线的正、负位相交替频繁,突变点较多,且曲线变化除个别时段发生紊乱外基本上保持同步性;16 a尺度上,突变点较少,3条曲线的正、负位相交替相应减少且出现不同步现象。降水、径流与输沙量曲线发生趋势变化及出现不同步现象的原因包括自然因素和人类活动,而后者是其主要影响因素。     

基于多因子的震区建筑物空间分布变化分析

研究地震发生前后震区建筑物空间分布的变化规律,可以为震后居民区规划提供科学依据。本文选择汶川地区作为案例区域,采用不同年份的Landsat遥感影像对建筑物信息进行提取,结合高程、水系、道路、行政区划、坡向等影响因子对汶川境内建筑物空间分布进行综合分析。结果表明:汶川地区建筑物空间分布具有明显的沿河、沿道路、低海拔区位取向分布的特性;建筑物面积与距水系距离的关系逐渐减弱;建筑物空间分布在乡镇层面上出现两个高聚集区,分别为海拔较低的威州镇、映秀等乡镇。     

A Novel Approach for Evaluating Nonstationary Response of Dynamic Systems to Stochastic Excitation

The transient state of a dynamic system, such as offshore structures, to random excitation is always nonstationary. Many studies have contributed to evaluating response covariances at the transient state of a linear multi-degree-of-freedom(MDOF) system to random excitations, but a closed-form solution was not available unless the excitation was assumed to be a physically unrealizable white noise process. This study derives explicit, closed-form solutions for the response covariances at the transient state by using a pole-residue(PR) approach operated in the Laplace domain when the excitations are assumed to be stationary random processes described by physically realizable spectral density functions. By using the PR method, we can analytically solve the triple integral in evaluating the nonstationary response covariance. As this approach uses the poles and residues of system transfer functions, rather than the conventional mode superposition technique, the method is applicable to MDOF systems with non-classical damping models. Particular application of the proposed method is demonstrated for multi-story shear buildings to stochastic ground acceleration characterized by the Kanai–Tajimi spectral density function model, and a numerical example is provided to illustrate the detailed steps. No numerical integrations are required for computing the response covariances as the exact closed-form solution has been derived. The correctness of the proposed method is numerically verified by Monte Carlo simulations.     

沉降观测AR模型的不确定性平差算法

在沉降观测过程中,获取的数据经常存在着不确定性,影响参数估计的可靠性和沉降预测的准确性。把不确定度作为参数融入AR模型,建立基于AR模型的不确定性平差模型。依据残差中不确定性传播规律,利用min-max估计准则,使得残差中的最大不确定度达到最小,从一个新的角度探讨不确定性观测数据的处理方法,得到基于不确定性算法的AR模型,扩展了现有误差理论。通过沉降实例进一步验证算法的优越性。     

基于网络游记的城市旅游流网络结构演化研究——以北京市为例

采用网络游记文本数据,结合爬虫技术和社会网络分析方法,分析北京市"十二五"和"十三五"时期城市旅游客流网络结构的演变特征。结果表明:①城市旅游流网络结构存在不均衡性,城市历史文化遗产节点的的影响控制能力强,新兴旅游吸引物的集聚能力相对较弱,受不同类型节点的路径依赖效应的影响,这种差异存在动态扩大特征。②城市旅游流网络结构呈现显著的等级分层结构和节点分散分布特征,传统游憩场所是城市旅游流的核心节点,外围发育的旅游节点较分散且规模能级提升空间较大。③城市旅游流拥有显著的赋能效应、倒逼效应和联通效应。     

Size and spatial distribution of loess slides on the Chinese Loess Plateau

ABSTRACT

The size and spatial distribution of loess slides are important for estimating the yield of eroded materials and determining the landslide risk. While previous studies have investigated landslide size distributions, the spatial distribution pattern of landslides at different spatial scales is poorly understood. The results indicate that the loess slide distribution exhibits a power-law scaling across a range of the size distribution. The mean landslide size and size distribution in the different geomorphic types are different. The double Pareto and inverse gamma functions can coincide well with the empirical probability distribution of the loess slide areas and can quantitatively reveal the rollover location, maximum probability, and scaling exponents. The frequency of loess slides increases with mean monthly precipitation. Moreover, point distance analysis showed that > 80% of landslides are located < 3 km from other loess slides. We found that the loess slides at the two study sites (Zhidan and Luochuan County) in northern Shaanxi Province, China show a significant clustered distribution. Furthermore, analysis results of the correlated fractal dimension show that the landslides exhibit a dispersed distribution at smaller spatial scales and a clustered distribution at larger spatial scales.     

A model for the representation of emergency cases

The aim of this paper is to propose a location model of earthquake emergency service depot on the basis of hybrid multi-attribute decision-making method. The advantage of the proposed method is that practical mixed uncertainty of location decision information is considered, and the corresponding factors that affect the location of transfer stations are contained. To solve the location problem, a hybrid multi-attribute decision procedure without information transformation is developed. Besides, a novel weighting method and aggregation process is given. Finally, a numerical example is provided to show the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.     

冷空气引起的飞船主着陆场区偏北大风的特征分析及预报

分析了飞船主着陆场区1981—1999年1—4月和9—12月因冷空气而产生的偏北大风的过程中气候概况及其天气特征。通过分析发现:主着陆场区因冷空气引起的偏北大风以春季最频繁,秋、冬季最稀少;一天当中偏北大风以午后出现频率最大,午夜出现频率最少;对于不同季节的气压和温度,春、秋两季变化剧烈,冬季相对较小;在大风出现前24小时,主着陆场区的欧亚中高纬度大气环流以两槽一脊型、一槽一脊型、贝湖低压型为主;冷空气入侵前24小时,欧亚天气图上主着陆场区上游低层850hPa中高纬度有明显的冷中心,地面图场区上游冷高压中心的分布主要有3个区域:贝加尔湖西南至新疆、贝加尔湖到内蒙中北部、贝加尔湖西北部。大风前24小时在35～45°N、100～115°E等压线密集,等压线一般都在4根以上。