全文获取类型
收费全文 | 8394篇 |
免费 | 649篇 |
国内免费 | 249篇 |
专业分类
测绘学 | 303篇 |
大气科学 | 987篇 |
地球物理 | 2727篇 |
地质学 | 3098篇 |
海洋学 | 905篇 |
天文学 | 635篇 |
综合类 | 233篇 |
自然地理 | 404篇 |
出版年
2023年 | 14篇 |
2022年 | 28篇 |
2021年 | 64篇 |
2020年 | 52篇 |
2019年 | 72篇 |
2018年 | 559篇 |
2017年 | 491篇 |
2016年 | 387篇 |
2015年 | 236篇 |
2014年 | 282篇 |
2013年 | 334篇 |
2012年 | 786篇 |
2011年 | 622篇 |
2010年 | 303篇 |
2009年 | 320篇 |
2008年 | 279篇 |
2007年 | 285篇 |
2006年 | 270篇 |
2005年 | 945篇 |
2004年 | 970篇 |
2003年 | 741篇 |
2002年 | 271篇 |
2001年 | 145篇 |
2000年 | 121篇 |
1999年 | 69篇 |
1998年 | 50篇 |
1997年 | 58篇 |
1996年 | 35篇 |
1995年 | 38篇 |
1994年 | 20篇 |
1993年 | 17篇 |
1992年 | 22篇 |
1991年 | 27篇 |
1990年 | 27篇 |
1989年 | 18篇 |
1988年 | 15篇 |
1987年 | 28篇 |
1986年 | 15篇 |
1985年 | 16篇 |
1984年 | 28篇 |
1983年 | 32篇 |
1982年 | 22篇 |
1981年 | 18篇 |
1980年 | 28篇 |
1979年 | 12篇 |
1977年 | 17篇 |
1976年 | 8篇 |
1975年 | 19篇 |
1974年 | 10篇 |
1973年 | 9篇 |
排序方式: 共有9292条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
191.
Seoleun Shin Jeon-Ho Kang Hyoung-Wook Chun Sihye Lee Kwangjae Sung Kyoungmi Cho Youngsoon Jo Jung-Eun Kim In-Hyuk Kwon Sujeong Lim Ji-Sun Kang 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2018,54(1):351-360
An ensemble data assimilation system using the 4-dimensional Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter is implemented to a global non-hydrostatic Numerical Weather Prediction model on the cubed-sphere. The ensemble data assimilation system is coupled to the Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems Package for Observation Processing, for real observation data from diverse resources, including satellites. For computational efficiency in a parallel computing environment, we employ some advanced software engineering techniques in the handling of a large number of files. The ensemble data assimilation system is tested in a semi-operational mode, and its performance is verified using the Integrated Forecast System analysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. It is found that the system can be stabilized effectively by additive inflation to account for sampling errors, especially when radiance satellite data are additionally used. 相似文献
192.
Kristie?L.?EbiEmail author Jessica?Hartman Nathan?Chan John?Mcconnell Michael?Schlesinger John?Weyant 《Climatic change》2005,73(3):375-393
Climate is one factor that determines the potential range of malaria. As such, climate change may work with or against efforts
to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission was based on the MARA/ARMA
model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using 16 projections of climate in 2100.
The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and
precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human
population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while
the lowveld and areas with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse
gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used
within or across other African countries. 相似文献
193.
David G. Barber Matthew G. Asplin Tim N. Papakyriakou Lisa Miller Brent G. T. Else John Iacozza C. J. Mundy M. Gosslin Natalie C. Asselin Steve Ferguson Jennifer V. Lukovich Gary A. Stern Ashley Gaden Monika Pu?ko N.-X. Geilfus Fei Wang 《Climatic change》2012,115(1):135-159
Change and variability in the timing and magnitude of sea ice geophysical and thermodynamic state have consequences on many aspects of the arctic marine system. The changes in both the geophysical and thermodynamic state, and in particular the timing of the development of these states, have consequences throughout the marine system. In this paper we review the ??consequences?? of change in sea ice state on primary productivity, marine mammal habitats, and sea ice as a medium for storage and transport of contaminants and carbon exchange across the ocean-sea-ice-atmosphere interface based upon results from the International Polar Year. Pertinent results include: 1) conditions along ice edges can bring deep nutrient-rich ??pacific?? waters into nutrient-poor surface waters along the arctic coast, affecting local food webs; 2) both sea ice thermodynamic and dynamic processes ultimately affect ringed seal/polar bear habitats by controlling the timing, location and amount of surface deformation required for ringed seal and polar bear preferred habitat 3) the ice edges bordering open waters of flaw leads are areas of high biological production and are observed to be important beluga habitat. 4) exchange of climate-active gases, including CO2, is extremely active in sea ice environments, and the overall question of whether the Arctic Ocean is (or will be) a source or sink for CO2 will be dependent on the balance of competing climate-change feedbacks. 相似文献
194.
Characterisation of Soot Emitted by Domestic Heating,Aircraft and Cars Using Diesel or Biodiesel 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Anne?Smekens Ricardo?Henrique?Moreton?Godoi Patrick?Berghmans René?Van?GriekenEmail author 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2005,52(1):45-62
The characterisation of aggregates, like soot, firstly requires the determination of the size distribution of the primary
particles. The primary particle size of combustion generated aggregates depends upon the combustion environment and the formation
conditions, such as temperature, pressure and fuel-to-air ratio, among others. Since the combustion characteristics are different
in the different types of burners, the characterisation of primary particles may offer the possibility to distinguish soot
from different sources. In this paper, we present the signature of the primary particles and the aggregates of soot emitted
by cars using diesel or biodiesel, by domestic heating, and by aircraft exhausts, which can be considered as the major sources
as derived from measurements on transmission electron micrographs. The size distributions of all aggregates types with different
aerodynamic diameter were log-normal and quasi-monodisperse. The size distribution of the primary particles for soot emitted
by different sources showed minor differences. However, a comparison between the diameter of the primary particles and those
obtained using a standard method for carbon black revealed discrepancies. The median diameter of the primary particles was
combined with the median number of primary particles in an aggregate to calculate the relative particle surface area available
for adsorption. In a similar way, the relative specific surface area was determined. The surface area was measured using the
Brunauer-Emmett-Teller (B.E.T.) nitrogen adsorption method and the relative surface area available for adsorption was calculated. 相似文献
195.
When a damaging extreme meteorological event occurs, the question often arises as to whether that event was caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The question is more than academic, since people affected by the event will be interested in recurring damages if they find that someone is at fault. However, since this extreme event could have occurred by chance in an unperturbed climate, we are currently unable to properly respond to this question. A solution lies in recognising the similarity with the cause-effect issue in the epidemiological field. The approach there is to consider the changes in the risk of the event occurring as attributable, as against the occurrence of the event itself. Inherent in this approach is a recognition that knowledge of the change in risk as well as the amplitude of the forcing itself are uncertain. Consequently, the fraction of the risk attributable to the external forcing is a probabilistic quantity. Here we develop and demonstrate this methodology in the context of the climate change problem. 相似文献
196.
We investigate the future changes of Asian-Australian monsoon (AAM) system projected by 20 climate models that participated in the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). A metrics for evaluation of the model’s performance on AAM precipitation climatology and variability is used to select a subset of seven best models. The CMIP5 models are more skillful than the CMIP3 models in terms of the AAM metrics. The future projections made by the selected multi-model mean suggest the following changes by the end of the 21st century. (1) The total AAM precipitation (as well as the land and oceanic components) will increase significantly (by 4.5 %/°C) mainly due to the increases in Indian summer monsoon (5.0 %/°C) and East Asian summer monsoon (6.4 %/°C) rainfall; the Australian summer monsoon rainfall will increase moderately by 2.6 %/°C. The “warm land-cool ocean” favors the entire AAM precipitation increase by generation of an east-west asymmetry in the sea level pressure field. On the other hand, the warm Northern Hemisphere-cool Southern Hemisphere induced hemispheric SLP difference favors the ASM but reduces the Australian summer monsoon rainfall. The combined effects explain the differences between the Asian and Australian monsoon changes. (2) The low-level tropical AAM circulation will weaken significantly (by 2.3 %/°C) due to atmospheric stabilization that overrides the effect of increasing moisture convergence. Different from the CMIP3 analysis, the EA subtropical summer monsoon circulation will increase by 4.4 %/°C. (3) The Asian monsoon domain over the land area will expand by about 10 %. (4) The spatial structures of the leading mode of interannual variation of AAM precipitation will not change appreciably but the ENSO-AAM relationship will be significantly enhanced. 相似文献
197.
The Summer Surface Energy Balance of the High Antarctic Plateau 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Dirk?van?AsEmail author Michiel?van?den?Broeke Carleen?Reijmer Roderik?van?de?Wal 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2005,115(2):289-317
The summertime surface energy balance (SEB) at Kohnen station, situated on the high Antarctic plateau (75°00′ S, 0°04′ E,
2892m above sea level) is presented for the period of 8 January to 9 February 2002. Shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes
were measured directly; the former was corrected for problems associated with the cosine response of the instrument. Sensible
and latent heat fluxes were calculated using the bulk method, and eddy-correlation measurements and the modified Bowen ratio
method were used to verify these calculated fluxes. The calculated sub-surface heat flux was checked by comparing calculated
to measured snow temperatures. Uncertainties in the measurements and energy-balance calculations are discussed.
The general meteorological conditions were not extraordinary during the period of the experiment, with a mean 2-m air temperature
of −27.5°C, specific humidity of 0.52×10−3kg kg−1 and wind speed of 4.1ms−1. The experiment covered the transition period from Antarctic summer (positive net radiation) to winter (negative net radiation),
and as a result the period mean net radiation, sensible heat, latent heat and sub-surface heat fluxes were small with values
of −1.1, 0.0, −1.0 and 0.7 Wm−2, respectively. Daily mean net radiation peaked on cloudy days (16 Wm−2) and was negative on clear-sky days (minimum of −19 W m−2). Daily mean sensible heat flux ranged from −8 to +10 Wm−2, latent heat flux from −4 to 0 Wm−2 and sub-surface heat flux from −8 to +7 Wm−2. 相似文献
198.
Seong-Joong Kim Thomas J. Crowley David J. Erickson Bala Govindasamy Phillip B. Duffy Bang Yong Lee 《Climate Dynamics》2008,31(1):1-16
The climate of the last glacial maximum (LGM) is simulated with a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model, the
NCAR CCM3 at spectral truncation of T170, corresponding to a grid cell size of roughly 75 km. The purpose of the study is
to assess whether there are significant benefits from the higher resolution simulation compared to the lower resolution simulation
associated with the role of topography. The LGM simulations were forced with modified CLIMAP sea ice distribution and sea
surface temperatures (SST) reduced by 1°C, ice sheet topography, reduced CO2, and 21,000 BP orbital parameters. The high-resolution model captures modern climate reasonably well, in particular the distribution
of heavy precipitation in the tropical Pacific. For the ice age case, surface temperature simulated by the high-resolution
model agrees better with those of proxy estimates than does the low-resolution model. Despite the fact that tropical SSTs
were only 2.1°C less than the control run, there are many lowland tropical land areas 4–6°C colder than present. Comparison
of T170 model results with the best constrained proxy temperature estimates (noble gas concentrations in groundwater) now
yield no significant differences between model and observations. There are also significant upland temperature changes in
the best resolved tropical mountain belt (the Andes). We provisionally attribute this result in part as resulting from decreased
lateral mixing between ocean and land in a model with more model grid cells. A longstanding model-data discrepancy therefore
appears to be resolved without invoking any unusual model physics. The response of the Asian summer monsoon can also be more
clearly linked to local geography in the high-resolution model than in the low-resolution model; this distinction should enable
more confident validation of climate proxy data with the high-resolution model. Elsewhere, an inferred salinity increase in
the subtropical North Atlantic may have significant implications for ocean circulation changes during the LGM. A large part
of the Amazon and Congo Basins are simulated to be substantially drier in the ice age—consistent with many (but not all) paleo
data. These results suggest that there are considerable benefits derived from high-resolution model regarding regional climate
responses, and that observationalists can now compare their results with models that resolve geography at a resolution comparable
to that which the proxy data represent. 相似文献
199.
Eun-Hee Lee Jong-Chul Ha Sang-Sam Lee Youngsin Chun 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2013,49(1):73-85
A data assimilation (DA) system using ground PM10 observation for Asian Dust Aerosol Model version 2 (ADAM2), which is the operational dust forecasting model of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), has been developed with the optimal interpolation (OI) method. The observations are provided by the PM10 network operated by KMA. Three DA experiments are performed to simulate a dust event observed in Korea from 1 March to 31 May 2009 with different assimilation cycles of 24 (DA24), 12 (DA12), and 06 hours (DA06). 48-hour forecasts from the adjusted Initial Condition (IC) of dust concentration are compared with control simulation (CTL) and observation from independent stations. It is found that CTL simulates spatial patterns of dust emitted and transported associated with a developing low pressure system over the dust source regions quite well, compared with satellite measurement. However, it appears that there is considerable uncertainty in estimating the concentration of dust. With IC adjustment, the model simulates improved dust concentration, showing considerably reduced RMSE, particularly for the prediction within 12 hours of forecast. At the same time, it is shown that the time interval of DA affects the predictability of ADAM2, so that DA06 appears to have better predictability within a 12-hour simulation, reducing RMSE by 50% compared with CTL. This suggests that assimilating PM10 to the dust prediction model using OI has the potential to predict air quality in Korea when the cycle of assimilation is sufficiently short. 相似文献
200.
Jung-Moon Yoo Young-In Won Young-Jun Cho Myeong-Jae Jeong Dong-Bin Shin Suk-Jo Lee Yu-Ri Lee Soo-Min Oh Soo-Jin Ban 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2011,47(5):439-455
Various types of satellite (AIRS/AMSU, MODIS) and ground measurements are used to analyze temperature trends in the four vertical layers (skin/surface, mid-troposphere, and low stratosphere) around the Korean Peninsula (123–132°E, 33–44°N) during the period from September 2002 to August 2010. The ground-based observations include 72 Surface Meteorological Stations (SMSs), 6 radiosonde stations (RAOBs), 457 Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs) over the land, and 5 buoy stations over the ocean. A strong warming (0.052 K yr?1) at the surface, and a weak warming (0.004~0.010 K yr?1) in the mid-troposphere and low stratosphere have been found from satellite data, leading to an unstable atmospheric layer. The AIRS/AMSU warming trend over the ocean surface around the Korean Peninsula is about 2.5 times greater than that over the land surface. The ground measurements from both SMS and AWS over the land surface of South Korea also show a warming of 0.043~0.082 K yr?1, consistent with the satellite observations. The correlation average (r = 0.80) between MODIS skin temperature and ground measurement is significant. The correlations between AMSU and RAOB are very high (0.91~0.95) in the anomaly time series, calculated from the spatial averages of monthly mean temperature values. However, the warming found in the AMSU data is stronger than that from the RAOB at the surface. The opposite feature is present above the mid-troposphere, indicating that there is a systematic difference. Warming phenomena (0.012~0.078 K yr?1) are observed from all three data sets (SMS, AWS, MODIS), which have been corroborated by the coincident measurements at five ground stations. However, it should also be noted that the observed trends are subject to large uncertainty as the corresponding 95% confidence intervals tend to be larger than the observed signals due to large thermal variability and the relatively short periods of the satellitebased temperature records. The EOF analysis of monthly mean temperature anomalies indicates that the tropospheric temperature variability near Korea is primarily linked to the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and secondarily to ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation). However, the low stratospheric temperature variability is mainly associated with Southern Oscillation and then additionally with Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Uncertainties from the different spatial resolutions between satellite data are discussed in the trends. 相似文献