Utility of coactive neuro-fuzzy inference system for pan evaporation modeling in comparison with multilayer perceptron

Estimation of pan evaporation (E _pan) using black-box models has received a great deal of attention in developing countries where measurements of E _pan are spatially and temporally limited. Multilayer perceptron (MLP) and coactive neuro-fuzzy inference system (CANFIS) models were used to predict daily E _pan for a semi-arid region of Iran. Six MLP and CANFIS models comprising various combinations of daily meteorological parameters were developed. The performances of the models were tested using correlation coefficient (r), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and percentage error of estimate (PE). It was found that the MLP6 model with the Momentum learning algorithm and the Tanh activation function, which requires all input parameters, presented the most accurate E _pan predictions (r?=?0.97, RMSE?=?0.81?mm?day^?1, MAE?=?0.63?mm?day^?1 and PE?=?0.58?%). The results also showed that the most accurate E _pan predictions with a CANFIS model can be achieved with the Takagi–Sugeno–Kang (TSK) fuzzy model and the Gaussian membership function. Overall performances revealed that the MLP method was better suited than CANFIS method for modeling the E _pan process.     

Ambient noise surface wave tomography of the Makran subduction zone,south-east Iran:Implications for crustal and uppermost mantle structures

Seismic ambient noise of surface wave tomography was applied to estimate Rayleigh wave empirical Green's functions(EGFs) and then to study crust and uppermost mantle structure beneath the Makran region in south-east Iran.12 months of continuous data from January 2009 through January 2010,recorded at broadband seismic stations,were analyzed.Group velocities of the fundamental mode Rayleigh wave dispersion curves were obtained from the empirical Green's functions.Multiplefilter analysis was used to plot group velocity variations at periods from 10 to 50 s.Using group velocity dispersion curves,1-D vs velocity models were calculated between several station pairs.The final results demonstrate significant agreement to known geological and tectonic features.Our tomography maps display low-velocity anomaly with SW-NE trend,comparable with volcanic arc settings of the Makran region which may be attributable to the geometry of Arabian Plate subducting beneath the overriding the Lut block.The northward subducting Arabian Plate is determined by high-velocity anomaly along the Straits of Hormuz.At short periods(20 s),there is a sharp transition boundary between low- and high-velocity transition zone with the NW trending at the western edge of Makran which is attributable to the Minab fault system.     

Prediction of the effect of water supplying from Shirindare dam on the Bojnourd aquifer using MODFLOW2000

In recent years, the water demand has been increasing considerably in Bojnourd, capital of Northern Khorasan province in NE of Iran, and the extracted water from Bojnourd alluvial aquifer, with an area of 65 km², is not sufficient for residents. The required water is going to be supplied from Shirindare dam, located out of Bojnourd aquifer’s catchment area; therefore, the groundwater levels will rise in some parts of the aquifer, due to the return flow of supplied water, which will cause serious problems for the city. In this paper, the groundwater flow system of Bojnourd aquifer has been numerically simulated using MODFLOW code in GMS interface. The model, primarily, was calibrated for a steady state condition for the mean values of oneyear period (Sep. 2009 to Sep. 2010) which has a steady condition with low stresses on the aquifer. Then the model was run/calibrated for transient conditions for a two year period (Sep. 2007 to Sep. 2009). After determining the hydraulic properties of the aquifer and confirming their validity, different management scenarios, were applied to the model. Results reveal that groundwater levels in the urban area will rise by over 3 m, by infiltrating 40% of supplied water from the Shirindare dam into the aquifer. To manage the rising water levels, two different management scenarios were applied to the aquifer model. In doing so and with proper management of aquifer exploitation during critical situations, not only will the groundwater level drop; also the city of Bojnourd can develop urban landscaping by constructing sports/cultural camping area using the extra pumped water.