The spatial–temporal variation of dry and wet periods in Iran based on comparing SPI and RDI indices

Drought is a natural hazard which can cause harmful effects on water resources. To monitor drought, the use of an indicator and determination of wet and dry period trend seem to have an important role in quantifying the drought analysis. In this paper, in addition to the comparison of Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), based on the most appropriate probability distribution function, it was tried to examine the trends of dry and wet periods based on the mentioned indices. Accordingly, the meteorological data of 30 synoptic stations in Iran (1960–2014) was used and the trend was analyzed using the Mann–Kendall test by eliminating the effect of any significant autocorrelation coefficients at 95% confidence level (modified Mann–Kendall). Comparing results between the time series of RDI and SPI drought indices based on statistical indicators (RMSE?<?0.434, R²?>?0.819 and T-statistic?<?0.419) in all studied stations revealed that the behavior of the two indices was roughly the same and the difference between them was not significant. The trend analysis results of RDI and SPI indices based on modified Mann–Kendall test showed that the variation of dry and wet periods was decreasing in most of the studied stations (five cases were significant). In addition, the results of the trend line slope of dry and wet periods related to the drought indices in the studied area indicated that the slope was negative for SPI and RDI indices in 70% and 50% of stations, respectively.     

Performance-based assessment of an innovative braced tube system for tall buildings

In this paper, an innovative seismic lateral force resisting system for tall buildings is introduced. In this system, a novel supplemental part, ribbed bracing system (RBSyst), is attached to Braced Tube System, creating a modified BTS. RBSyst is a supplemental part which is attached to the conventional bracing members to eliminate buckling problem. The behavior of RBSyst under tensile force is similar to that of the conventional braces. However, in compression, it prevents the braces from buckling by length reduction. In order to evaluate the efficiency of this new BTS system by performance-based assessment, two typical 40-story tall buildings with different story modules equipped with this proposed bracing system are modeled numerically. Then, the seismic behavior of these 3-dimensional models are evaluated by nonlinear time history analysis under maximum considered earthquakes and service-level earthquakes. The results of the analysis demonstrate that the performance of the tall buildings equipped with this new BTS system is within the acceptable limits under both service-level and maximum considered earthquake ground motions. Additionally, it is shown that RBSyst part can effectively enhance the seismic behavior of BTS systems.     

Identification of Nutrients Critical Source Areas with SWAT Model under Limited Data Condition

Water Resources - The lack of long term observed data is the main challenge in many simulation-based studies for identification of nutrient critical source areas (CSAs). This study explored the...     

Climate change impact on Caspian Sea wave conditions in the Noshahr Port

Excessive usage of fossil fuels and high emission of greenhouse gases have increased the earth’s temperature and consequently have led to changes in wind and wave regimes. The main effects of climate change on oceans are warming of the ocean water, melting of ice, acidification of ocean water, and change in the ocean currents. The main effects of climate change on coastal regions are change in the coast hydrodynamics, sea level rise, change in wave height, coastal erosion, coastal structure damage, food shortage, and storms. Due to the importance of waves in the coastal zone and its effect on erosion and sedimentation, it is necessary to study wave changes. In this study, the effect of climate change on wave specifications was evaluated in the southern coast of the Caspian Sea in Noshahr Port. To simulate wave parameters, the third generation spectral Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) model was used. Wave modeling was carried out using the SWAN numerical model for two 30-yearly periods, including the control period (1984 to 2014) and the future period (2051 to 2080). For wave modeling in the control period, the European Center for Average Weather Forecast wind field was used, and for the future period, a downscaled wind field from Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment projection, which was sponsored by World Climate Research Programme, based on the most recent emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, was used. The model results were calibrated and verified with buoy-recorded data. The effect of the climate change on the wave parameters was evaluated by studying the differences between the patterns in three scenarios and the control period. Results showed that the 30-year maximum significant wave height will increase because of climate change, and the wave direction will not change. In addition, the intensity of storms will increase in the future.

     

Iteratively re‐weighted and refined least squares algorithm for robust inversion of geophysical data

A robust metric of data misfit such as the ?₁‐norm is required for geophysical parameter estimation when the data are contaminated by erratic noise. Recently, the iteratively re‐weighted and refined least‐squares algorithm was introduced for efficient solution of geophysical inverse problems in the presence of additive Gaussian noise in the data. We extend the algorithm in two practically important directions to make it applicable to data with non‐Gaussian noise and to make its regularisation parameter tuning more efficient and automatic. The regularisation parameter in iteratively reweighted and refined least‐squares algorithm varies with iteration, allowing the efficient solution of constrained problems. A technique is proposed based on the secant method for root finding to concentrate on finding a solution that satisfies the constraint, either fitting to a target misfit (if a bound on the noise is available) or having a target size (if a bound on the solution is available). This technique leads to an automatic update of the regularisation parameter at each and every iteration. We further propose a simple and efficient scheme that tunes the regularisation parameter without requiring target bounds. This is of great importance for the field data inversion where there is no information about the size of the noise and the solution. Numerical examples from non‐stationary seismic deconvolution and velocity‐stack inversion show that the proposed algorithm is efficient, stable, and robust and outperforms the conventional and state‐of‐the‐art methods.     

Analytical fragility assessment using unscaled ground motion records

It is desirable that nonlinear dynamic analyses for structural fragility assessment are performed using unscaled ground motions. The widespread use of a simple dynamic analysis procedure known as Cloud Analysis, which uses unscaled records and linear regression, has been impeded by its alleged inaccuracies. This paper investigates fragility assessment based on Cloud Analysis by adopting, as the performance variable, a scalar demand to capacity ratio that is equal to unity at the onset of limit state. It is shown that the Cloud Analysis, performed based on a careful choice of records, leads to reasonable and efficient fragility estimates. There are 2 main rules to keep in mind for record selection: to make sure that a good portion of the records leads to a demand to capacity ratio greater than unity and that the dispersion in records' seismic intensity is considerable. An inevitable consequence of implementing these rules is that one often needs to deal with the so‐called collapse cases. To formally consider the collapse cases, a 5‐parameter fragility model is proposed that mixes the simple regression in the logarithmic scale with logistic regression. The joint distribution of fragility parameters can be obtained by adopting a Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation scheme leading directly to the fragility and its confidence intervals. The resulting fragility curves compare reasonably with those obtained from the Incremental Dynamic Analysis and Multiple Stripe Analysis with (variable) conditional spectrum–compatible suites of records at different intensity levels for 3 older reinforced concrete frames with shear‐, shear‐flexure‐, and flexure‐dominant behavior.     

Performance evaluation of WAVEWATCH III model in the Persian Gulf using different wind resources

The third-generation wave model, WAVEWATCH III, was employed to simulate bulk wave parameters in the Persian Gulf using three different wind sources: ERA-Interim, CCMP, and GFS-Analysis. Different formulations for whitecapping term and the energy transfer from wind to wave were used, namely the Tolman and Chalikov (J Phys Oceanogr 26:497–518, 1996), WAM cycle 4 (BJA and WAM4), and Ardhuin et al. (J Phys Oceanogr 40(9):1917–1941, 2010) (TEST405 and TEST451 parameterizations) source term packages. The obtained results from numerical simulations were compared to altimeter-derived significant wave heights and measured wave parameters at two stations in the northern part of the Persian Gulf through statistical indicators and the Taylor diagram. Comparison of the bulk wave parameters with measured values showed underestimation of wave height using all wind sources. However, the performance of the model was best when GFS-Analysis wind data were used. In general, when wind veering from southeast to northwest occurred, and wind speed was high during the rotation, the model underestimation of wave height was severe. Except for the Tolman and Chalikov (J Phys Oceanogr 26:497–518, 1996) source term package, which severely underestimated the bulk wave parameters during stormy condition, the performances of other formulations were practically similar. However, in terms of statistics, the Ardhuin et al. (J Phys Oceanogr 40(9):1917–1941, 2010) source terms with TEST405 parameterization were the most successful formulation in the Persian Gulf when compared to in situ and altimeter-derived observations.     

Investigation of the Concentration of Metals in Two Economically Important Fish Species from the Caspian Sea and Assessment of Potential Risk to Human Health

Ocean Science Journal - Our specific objectives were to determine the concentrations of heavy metals (Cadmium, Lead, Arsenic, Mercury, Zinc, copper, Manganese and Cobalt) in the liver, gill, kidney...     

Mélange development in the Neyriz region of Zagros Orogen,Iran: Record of convergence and collision in the Neotethyan Realm

Mélanges are formed by sedimentary, tectonic and diapiric processes and are generally found in collisional belts. The Zagros Orogeny provides an intriguing geological laboratory for the study of mélange-forming processes during the progressive tectonic evolution of the Neotethys Ocean. Different types of tectonic and sedimentary mélanges occur in specific structural positions within the Zagros orogenic belt in the Neyriz Region (Iran). Based on their block-in-matrix fabrics, and tectonostratigraphic positions, we differentiated 14 different mélange types, which mark different episodes of the tectonic evolution of the Neyriz Region from the Cretaceous subduction to the Miocene collision. The Cretaceous subduction stage is recorded by volcanic-sedimentary mélanges (Mv). Sedimentary mélanges characterized by megabreccia from the Cretaceous limestone (Ms1) and Eocene polymictic megabreccia (Ms2) represent epi-nappe mélanges formed during the Palaeocene–Eocene in wedge-top basins. The ophiolite emplacement in the Oligocene resulted in local extensional tectonics in the upper part of the ophiolitic nappe, and deposition of a polymictic megabreccia (Ms3, Ms4). As the final production of the Neotethys Ocean closure and the Eurasian-Arabian collision, the sedimentary mélanges characterized by different types of chaotic rock units (Ms5, Ms6, Ms7 and Ms8 facies) were developed in front of the Cretaceous–Eocene nappes due to growth of the orogenic wedge in the Miocene. Our findings indicate that the recognition and distinction of different types of mélange may provide additional constraints for a better understanding of the tectono-sedimentary evolution of the Neotethyan region.