Seismic reliability assessment and the nonergodicity in the modelling parameter uncertainties

Modelling uncertainty can significantly affect the structural seismic reliability assessment. However, the limit state excursion due to this type of uncertainty may not be described by a Poisson process as it lacks renewal properties with the occurrence of each earthquake event. Furthermore, considering uncertainties related to ground motion representation by employing recorded ground motions together with modelling uncertainties is not a trivial task. Robust fragility assessment, proposed previously by the authors, employs the structural response to recorded ground motion as data in order to update prescribed seismic fragility models. Robust fragility can be extremely efficient for considering also the structural modelling uncertainties by creating a dataset of one-to-one assignments of structural model realizations and as-recorded ground motions. This can reduce the computational effort by more than 1 order of magnitude. However, it should be kept in mind that the fragility concept itself is based on the underlying assumption of Poisson-type renewal. Using the concept of updated robust reliability, considering both the uncertainty in ground motion representation based on as-recorded ground motion and non ergodic modelling uncertainties, the error introduced through structural reliability assessment by using the robust fragility is quantified. It is shown through specific application to an existing RC frame that this error is quite small when the product of the time interval and the standard deviation of failure rate is small and is on the conservative side.     

Hydro-mechanical evaluation of stabilized mine tailings

. In this study, mine tailings waste was stabilized using a combination of lime, fly ash type "C", and aluminum. Treated samples were subjected to mineral identification for evaluating the formation of ettringite and gypsum. Also, unconfined compression, hydraulic conductivity, and cyclic freeze and thaw tests were performed to evaluate the hydro-mechanical properties of the stabilized samples. Experimental results have shown that the application of lime and fly ash type "C" to high sulfate content tailings has improved its plasticity, workability, and volume stability. Moreover, upon addition of aluminum to lime and fly ash in a sulfate-rich environment, ettringite and calcium sulfo-aluminate hydrate are formed in these samples. Application of 5% lime, 10% fly ash type "C", in combination with 110 ppm aluminum, resulted in the formation of a solid monolith capable of producing more than 1,000 kPa of unconfined compressive strength, and reduced tailings permeability to 1.96᎒^–6 cm s^–1, which is less than the recommended permeability of 10^–5 cm s^–1 by most environmental protection agencies for reusability of solidified/stabilized samples. The permeability of the treated tailings samples remained below the recommended permeability, even after exposing the treated samples to 12 freeze and thaw cycles. Therefore, based on the experimental results, it is concluded that treatment of high sulfate-content tailings with lime and fly ash, combined with the availability of aluminum for reactions, is a successful method of solidifying highly reactive mine tailings.     

Observed changes in relative humidity and dew point temperature in coastal regions of Iran

The analysis of trends in hydroclimatic parameters and assessment of their statistical significance have recently received a great concern to clarify whether or not there is an obvious climate change. In the current study, parametric linear regression and nonparametric Mann?CKendall tests were applied for detecting annual and seasonal trends in the relative humidity (RH) and dew point temperature (T _dew) time series at ten coastal weather stations in Iran during 1966?C2005. The serial structure of the data was considered, and the significant serial correlations were eliminated using the trend-free pre-whitening method. The results showed that annual RH increased by 1.03 and 0.28?%/decade at the northern and southern coastal regions of the country, respectively, while annual T _dew increased by 0.29 and 0.15°C per decade at the northern and southern regions, respectively. The significant trends were frequent in the T _dew series, but they were observed only at 2 out of the 50 RH series. The results showed that the difference between the results of the parametric and nonparametric tests was small, although the parametric test detected larger significant trends in the RH and T _dew time series. Furthermore, the differences between the results of the trend tests were not related to the normality of the statistical distribution.     

Crater formation in soils by raindrop impact

The process of crater formation by the impact of water drops on soil, sand and various other target material was studied. Craters of various shapes and sizes were observed on different target materials or conditions, ranging from circumferential depression to completely hemispherical shape. Crater shape was dependent upon target material, its ?ow stress or shear strength and the presence and thickness of water on the surface. Between 5 and 22 per cent of impact energy was spent on cratering, but the relationship between crater volume and kinetic energy of a raindrop was curvilinear, indicating a lower ef?ciency of impact energy in removing target material as the energy increases. Impact impulse, on the other hand, showed a more linear relationship with crater volume, and the ratio of impulse over crater volume (I/V) remained constant for the entire range of drop sizes, impact velocities, and surface conditions used in this study. Surface shear strength, represented by the penetration depth of fall‐cone penetrometer, appeared to be a key factor involved in this process. An equation was developed which related crater volume to cone penetration depth and impact impulse. Crater volume, which appeared to be a better indicator of the total amount of material dislodged by a raindrop than splash amount, can thus be predicted using this equation. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bioattenuation in groundwater impacted by landfill leachate traced with δ13C

The impact on groundwater imparted by the infiltration of high dissolved organic carbon (DOC) leachate from capped, unlined landfills can be attenuated by biogeochemical reactions beyond the waste source, although such reactive loss in the aquifer is difficult to distinguish from conservative advective dispersion. Compound-specific measurement of δ(13)C in carbon species, including CH(4), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), and the major DOC compounds (acetate, humic acid, and fulvic acid) provides a constraint in this assessment that can assist in exercises of modeling and prediction of leachate transport. The Trail Road municipal landfill near Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, hosts an unlined sector which produces a highly enriched leachate (DOC >4500 mg/L) that provides a good site to examine reactive attenuation within the receptor aquifer. Acetate, a sentinel component of leachate DOC (~1000 mg C/L), is absent in impacted groundwater. Mass balance calculations together with reaction modeling suggest continued acetate fermentation with calcite control on DIC and δ(13)C(DIC) evolution. In groundwater within 50 m of the landfill, methane concentrations are elevated (~10 mg/L), consistent with acetate fermentation, whereas δ(13)C(CH4) measurements in deeper groundwater range down to -51‰ compared with -60‰ in the landfill demonstrating oxidative loss. DOC in the deep aquifer is remarkably depleted to values less than -40‰ suggesting methanotrophic bacteria selectively consume isotopically light CH(4) to fix carbon. Continued reaction of leachate DOC in groundwater is demonstrated by evolution away from conservative mixing lines on diagrams of δ(13)C vs. concentrations of DIC and DOC.     

Application of integrated geoelectrical methods in Khenadarreh (Arak,Iran) graphite deposit exploration

This paper is devoted to application of SP, resistivity and mise-a-la-masse method in Khenadarreh (Arak, Iran) graphite deposit exploration. Mise-a-la-masse method is one of the main geophysical exploration methods used to investigate conductive bodies with outcrops on the surface or in exploratory pits. By integrating mise-a-la-masse results with other geoelectrical methods, such as self-potential and resistivity surveys, useful results can be acquired. Powerful survey design, data processing and interpretation methods can make geoelectrical surveying results more reliable. Here, we applied integrated geoelectrical methods to explore the Khenadarreh-bala graphite deposit in the Sarband region of the Markazi province, Iran. We present a new and simple method for processing and interpreting mise-a-la-masse data, which corrects for the effect of distance from the current electrode in the conductive body. After correction, the residual potential values corresponded with the SP results and the apparent resistivity pseudosections. The geophysical results were confirmed by drill holes in the study area.     

Investigation of rangeland indicator species using parametric and non-parametric methods in hilly landscapes of central Iran

This study aimed to identify indicator species and explore the most important environmental and management variables contributing to vegetation distribution in a hilly upper dam landscape in Zagros Mountain chain, Iran. A stratified random sampling method was used to collect topographic, edaphic, management and vegetation data. The density and cover percentage of perennial species were measured quantitatively. Indicator species were identified using the two-way indicator species analysis. Besides calculating physiognomic factors in sample sites, 24 soil samples were collected from 0 to 30 cm of soil depth and analyzed in terms of gravel percentage, texture, saturation moisture, organic matter, pH and electrical conductivity in saturation extract, lime percentage, soluble calcium and magnesium, available phosphorus, Cation Exchange Capacity(CEC) and soluble sodium and potassium. Multivariate techniques including Canonical Correspondence Analysis and Multi-Dimensional Scaling were used to explore the relationships of species with environmental and management variables. Seven plants were identified as indicator species due to being significantly correlated with management(grazing or non-grazing) and edaphic variables such as CEC, soil texture, pH, CaCO_3 percentage and physiographic variable including slope, elevation, and convex and concave formations(p 0.05). Overall, overgrazing and its subsequent effects on soil characteristics, loss of vegetation cover and trampling were found as the major causes of deterioration. Sustainable and integrated management practices such as the implementation of appropriate grazing systems were suggested to enhance soil quality and reduce the accelerated erosion in upper dam zones.     

Spatial modelling of reference evapotranspiration using adjusted Blaney-Criddle equation in an arid environment

Abstract

The Blaney-Criddle (BC) temperature-based equation is used in areas where the complete weather data to estimate reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) by the Penman-Monteith FAO-56 (PMF-56) standard model is complex. In this study, the BC equation was first tested and calibrated against the ET₀ values computed by the PMF-56 method using data from 17 weather stations in arid regions of Iran. Then, geographical information systems (GIS)-based spatially-distributed maps of ET₀ were prepared by means of geographic/topographic factors derived from a digital elevation model (DEM) for all months, separately. The results indicate that the original BC equation overestimated PMF-56 ET₀ by 4% at the study sites. The BC equation produced closer ET₀ estimates to the PMF-56 method after it was calibrated. The error rate of <3% for the spatial modelling approach suggests that the developed ET₀ maps are reliable.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor D. Yang

Citation Tabari, H., Hosseinzadeh Talaee, P., and Shifteh Some'e, B., 2013. Spatial modelling of reference evapotranspiration using adjusted Blaney-Criddle equation in an arid environment. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 408–420.     

Documenting hurricane impacts on coral reefs using two-dimensional video-mosaic technology

Four hurricanes impacted the reefs of Florida in 2005. In this study, we evaluate the combined impacts of hurricanes Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma on a population of Acropora palmata using a newly developed video‐mosaic methodology that provides a high‐resolution, spatially accurate landscape view of the reef benthos. Storm damage to A. palmata was surprisingly limited; only 2 out of 19 colonies were removed from the study plot at Molasses Reef. The net tissue losses for those colonies that remained were only 10% and mean diameter of colonies decreased slightly from 88.4 to 79.6 cm. In contrast, the damage to the reef framework was more severe, and a large section (6 m in diameter) was dislodged, overturned, and transported to the bottom of the reef spur. The data presented here show that two‐dimensional video‐mosaic technology is well‐suited to assess the impacts of physical disturbance on coral reefs and can be used to complement existing survey methodologies.     

Scattering of plane harmonic SH,SV, P and rayleigh waves by non-axisymmetric three-dimensional canyons: A wave function expansion approach

Scattering of elastic waves by three-dimensional canyons embedded within an elastic half-space is investigated by using a wave function expansion technique. The geometry of the canyon is assumed to be non-axisymmetric. The canyon is subjected to incident plane Rayleigh waves and oblique incident SH, SV and P waves. The unknown scattered wavefield is expressed in terms of spherical wave functions which satisfy the equations of motion and radiation conditions at infinity, but they do not satisfy stress-free boundary conditions at the half-space surface. The boundary conditions are imposed locally in the least-squares sense at several points on the surface of the canyon and the half-space. Through a comparative study the validity and limitations of two-dimensional approximations (antiplane strain and plane strain models) have been examined. It is shown that scattering of waves by three-dimensional canyons may cause substantial change in the surface displacement patterns in comparison to the two-dimensional models. These results emphasize the need for three-dimensional modelling of realistic problems of interest in strong ground motion seismology and earthquake engineering.