Vulnerabilities of macrophytes distribution due to climate change

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The rise in the earth’s surface and water temperature is part of the effect of climatic change that has been observed for the last decade. The rates of...     

Multi-factor impact analysis of agricultural production in Bangladesh with climate change

Diverse vulnerabilities of Bangladesh's agricultural sector in 16 sub-regions are assessed using experiments designed to investigate climate impact factors in isolation and in combination. Climate information from a suite of global climate models (GCMs) is used to drive models assessing the agricultural impact of changes in temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide concentrations, river floods, and sea level rise for the 2040–2069 period in comparison to a historical baseline. Using the multi-factor impacts analysis framework developed in Yu et al. (2010), this study provides new sub-regional vulnerability analyses and quantifies key uncertainties in climate and production. Rice (aman, boro, and aus seasons) and wheat production are simulated in each sub-region using the biophysical Crop Environment REsource Synthesis (CERES) models. These simulations are then combined with the MIKE BASIN hydrologic model for river floods in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Basins, and the MIKE21 Two-Dimensional Estuary Model to determine coastal inundation under conditions of higher mean sea level. The impacts of each factor depend on GCM configurations, emissions pathways, sub-regions, and particular seasons and crops. Temperature increases generally reduce production across all scenarios. Precipitation changes can have either a positive or a negative impact, with a high degree of uncertainty across GCMs. Carbon dioxide impacts on crop production are positive and depend on the emissions pathway. Increasing river flood areas reduce production in affected sub-regions. Precipitation uncertainties from different GCMs and emissions scenarios are reduced when integrated across the large GBM Basins’ hydrology. Agriculture in Southern Bangladesh is severely affected by sea level rise even when cyclonic surges are not fully considered, with impacts increasing under the higher emissions scenario.     

Wave breaking and bubble formation associate energy dissipation and wave setup

Ocean Dynamics - In this work, theoretical development of void fraction effect over wave energy dissipation and wave setup in a surf zone is made. The formulation incorporates simple energy...     

Seismic performance and damage incurred by monolithic concrete self-centering rocking walls under the effect of axial stress ratio

Self-centering rocking walls offer the possibility of minimizing repair costs and downtimes, and also nullify the residual drift after seismic events, thanks to their self-centering properties. In this paper, the effect of axial stress ratio on the behavior of monolithic self-centering rocking walls is investigated by utilizing a developed finite element model. To verify the validity of the finite element model, results and observed damage in the model are compared with those of a full-scale wall test. The axial stress ratio is varied from 0.024 to 0.30 while keeping the other structural parameters constant. For qualitative damage evaluation, the observed damage in the model compared with expected damage states of desired performance levels. In order to evaluate the incurred damage quantitatively, the amount of crushing and damage in the wall is calculated by utilizing several ratios (crushing ratio and damage ratio). Furthermore, seismic response factors (i.e., μ, R and C_d) are calculated for different axial stress ratio values. The obtained results showed that, in order to satisfy the requirements of desired performance levels, the maximum axial stress ratio should be approximately within the range of 0.10–0.15. In addition, the maximum overall damage ratio and crushing ratio are suggested to be less than 5%. For axial stress ratio higher than 0.15, the flag-shaped pattern of hysteresis curves completely disappeared and the variation of displacement ductility is less sensitive to axial stress ratio. Considering the maximum axial stress ratio limited to 0.150, values of 4 and 3.5 are conservatively proposed as a period-independent response modification factor and displacement modification factor of the investigated structural wall, respectively.     

Role of Fracturing in the Organization of the Karst Features of Azrou Plateau (Middle Atlas,Morroco) Studied by Remote Sensing Imagery

Karst formation geometry can be controlled by fractures and faults, and by other lithologies. Here we show the organization of kastic collapse features related to structures and to extensive basaltic lava flows in the Middle Atlas of Morocco. A lineament map of major faults and fractures has been created for the Middle Atlas using Landsat 7 ETM⁺ satellite images. This shows a dominant NE–SW regional direction and less prominent NNW–SSE and ENE–WSE directions. All these directions coincide with the alignments of karstic depressions that have formed in the Liassic limestones. The basaltic flows covering these formations on the Middle Atlas limestone plateau, have allowed the generation of cryptokarst, geometrically organized a long these major lineament directions. Karst landforms probabaly existed before the eruption of the lavas, but there were partly invaded by intrusions and volcanism. The extensive basaltic flows allowed for increased infiltration, and subsurface water flow, increasing the rate of kast formation after eruptions. Some basins show evidence of increased subsidence after lava emplacement (Aguelmam Sidi Ali Lake) and some maar-like craters also have subsided after eruption, by karts formation. We lay out the structural and lithological controls on Karstic formation in an intraplate volcanic field based on limestones and evaporites.     

Effects of rainfall patterns on runoff and rainfall-induced erosion

Rainfall-induced erosion involves the detachment of soil particles by raindrop impact and their transport by the combined action of the shallow surface runoff and raindrop impact.Although temporal variation in rainfall intensity(pattern)during natural rainstorms is a common phenomenon,the available information is inadequate to understand its effects on runoff and rainfall-induced erosion processes.To address this issue,four simulated rainfall patterns(constant,increasing,decreasing,and increasing-decreasing)with the same total kinetic energy were designed.Two soil types(sandy and sandy loam)were subjected to simulated rainfall using 15 cm×30 cm long detachment trays under infiltration conditions.For each simulation,runoff and sediment concentration were sampled at regular intervals.No obvious difference was observed in runoff across the two soil types,but there were significant differences in soil losses among the different rainfall patterns and stages.For varying-intensity rainfall patterns,the dominant sediment transport mechanism was not only influenced by raindrop detachment but also was affected by raindrop-induced shallow flow transport.Moreover,the efficiency of equations that predict the interrill erosion rate increased when the integrated raindrop impact and surface runoff rate were applied.Although the processes of interrill erosion are complex,the findings in this study may provide useful insight for developing models that predict the effects of rainfall pattern on runoff and erosion.     

Modelling wind-erosion risk in the Laghouat region (Algeria) using geomatics approach

Wind-erosion risk is a challenge that threatens land development in dry-land regions. Soil analysis, remote sensing, climatic, vegetal cover and topographic data were used in a geographic information system (GIS), using multi-criteria analysis (MCA) to map wind-erosion risk (R_we) in Laghouat, Algeria. The approach was based on modelling the risk and incorporating topographic and climatic effects. The maps were coded according to their sensitivity to wind erosion and to their socio-economic potential, from low to very high. By overlapping the effects of these layers, qualitative maps were drawn to reflect the potential sensitivity to wind erosion per unit area. The results indicated that severe wind erosion affects mainly all the southern parts and some parts in the north of Laghouat, where wind-erosion hazard (H_we) is very high in 43% of the total area, and which was affected mainly by natural parameters such as soil, topography and wind. The results also identified features vulnerable to R_we. The product of the hazard and the stake maps indicated the potential risk areas that need preventive measures; this was more than half of the study area, making it essential to undertake environmental management and land-use planning.     

Towards Formulation of a Space-borne System for Early Warning of Floods: Can Cost-Effectiveness Outweigh Prediction Uncertainty?

The three most important components necessary for functioning of an operational flood warning system are: (1) a rainfall measuring system; (2) a soil moisture updating system; and, (3) a surface discharge measuring system. Although surface based networks for these systems can be largely inadequate in many parts of the world, this inadequacy particularly affects the tropics, which are most vulnerable to flooding hazards. Furthermore, the tropical regions comprise developing countries lacking the financial resources for such surface-based monitoring. The heritage of research conducted on evaluating the potential for measuring discharge from space has now morphed into an agenda for a mission dedicated to space-based surface discharge measurements. This mission juxtaposed with two other upcoming space-based missions: (1) for rainfall measurement (Global Precipitation Measurement, GPM), and (2) soil moisture measurement (Hydrosphere State, HYDROS), bears promise for designing a fully space-borne system for early warning of floods. Such a system, if operational, stands to offer tremendous socio-economic benefit to many flood-prone developing nations of the tropical world. However, there are two competing aspects that need careful assessment to justify the viability of such a system: (1) cost-effectiveness due to surface data scarcity; and (2) flood prediction uncertainty due to uncertainty in the remote sensing measurements. This paper presents the flood hazard mitigation opportunities offered by the assimilation of the three proposed space missions within the context of these two competing aspects. The discussion is cast from the perspective of current understanding of the prediction uncertainties associated with space-based flood prediction. A conceptual framework for a fully space-borne system for early-warning of floods is proposed. The need for retrospective validation of such a system on historical data comprising floods and its associated socio-economic impact is stressed. This proposal for a fully space-borne system, if pursued through wide interdisciplinary effort as recommended herein, promises to enhance the utility of the three space missions more than what their individual agenda can be expected to offer.     

The structure and evolution of the coastal migrant fishery of Kenya

The current study was carried out over a period of one year to characterise the coastal migrant fishery of Kenya. The study looked at gears and vessels used, and ownership, demographic factors including ages of the fishers and family sizes, migrant activity and resource conservation at two main fishing villages in Kenya; Vanga and Mayungu in the south and north coasts, straddling at 4.663°S and 39.215°E and 3.214°S and 40.135°E respectively. Further, the fishers were categorised with regard to fishing, gear and vessel operation and trade, and evolution upon entry into the fishery was also assessed in order to define fisher-stake in the fishery for resource management and conservation planning. Structured questionnaires were used to interview the fishers, and data and information recorded from 1018 fishers during the survey. Migrants accounted for over 63% of the fishers in the two study sites, with majority of the fishers lying in the 15–45 year age bracket. Dependence level averages at 4–6 person families per fisher. Entry to the fishery was mainly at seamen level, progressing to fishermen and finally to fish dealers (tajiris), with the latter holding >62% capital in the fishery. Resource management in the fishery was low and only 10% of the fishers were active participants in marine conservation and community beach management issues. Fisher migrations were mainly monsoon season-linked (>58%) although social factors such as family location determined to a great extent the expanse of the migrations. The revival of fisheries cooperatives and active participation in community resource management and conservation groups is envisaged as the key to the sustainability of both the marine resources and the economies associated with this high mobility, cross-border fishery.