Climatic teleconnections with the equatorial pacific and the role of ocean/atmosphere coupling

Starting from the occurrence of a zonal Walker circulation supplementing the meridional Hadley cell, the concept of ultralong waves with diagonal upper troughs extending far into the Tropics is stressed. The model of equatorial upwelling with air‐sea coupling is critically discussed and a modification proposed. An intensification of the subtropical jet at the peak of the 1972 El Niño (as suggested by Rowntree's model calculations) has been verified.

Empirical studies deal with the large interannual and interdecadal variations of the energy fluxes at the air‐sea interface; time variations of the oceanic evaporation and sensible heat flux are greater than expected. Using spectrum analysis, the occurrence of a 5‐year periodicity in equatorial rainfall of the Pacific and Indonesia is demonstrated, together with a marked phase shift along the NE coast of New Guinea.     

Reliable estimation of orbit errors in spaceborne SAR interferometry

An approach to improve orbital state vectors by orbit error estimates derived from residual phase patterns in synthetic aperture radar interferograms is presented. For individual interferograms, an error representation by two parameters is motivated: the baseline error in cross-range and the rate of change of the baseline error in range. For their estimation, two alternatives are proposed: a least squares approach that requires prior unwrapping and a less reliable gridsearch method handling the wrapped phase. In both cases, reliability is enhanced by mutual control of error estimates in an overdetermined network of linearly dependent interferometric combinations of images. Thus, systematic biases, e.g., due to unwrapping errors, can be detected and iteratively eliminated. Regularising the solution by a minimum-norm condition results in quasi-absolute orbit errors that refer to particular images. For the 31 images of a sample ENVISAT dataset, orbit corrections with a mutual consistency on the millimetre level have been inferred from 163 interferograms. The method itself qualifies by reliability and rigorous geometric modelling of the orbital error signal but does not consider interfering large scale deformation effects. However, a separation may be feasible in a combined processing with persistent scatterer approaches or by temporal filtering of the estimates.     

The BEAM-project: prediction and assessment of mixture toxicities in the aquatic environment

Freshwater and marine ecosystems are exposed to various multi-component mixtures of pollutants. Nevertheless, most ecotoxicological research and chemicals regulation focus on hazard and exposure assessment of individual substances only, the problem of chemical mixtures in the environment is ignored to a large extent. In contrast, the assessment of combination effects has a long tradition in pharmacology, where mixtures of chemicals are specifically designed to develop new products, e.g. human and veterinary drugs or agricultural and non-agricultural pesticides. In this area, two concepts are frequently used and are thought to describe fundamental relationships between single substance and mixture effects: Independent Action (Response Addition) and Concentration Addition. The question, to what extent these concepts may also be applied in an ecotoxicological and regulatory context may be considered a research topic of major importance, as the concepts would allow to make use of already existing single substance toxicity data for the predictive assessment of mixture toxicities. Two critical knowledge gaps are identified: (a) There is a lack of environmental realism, as a huge part of our current knowledge about the applicability of the concepts is restricted to artificial situations with respect to mixture composition or biological effect assessment. (b) The knowledge on what exactly is needed for using the concepts as tools for the predictive mixture toxicity assessment is insufficient. Both gaps seriously hamper the necessary, scientifically sound consideration of mixture toxicities in a regulatory context.In this paper, the two concepts will be briefly introduced, the necessity of considering the toxicities of chemical mixtures in the environment will be demonstrated and the applicability of Independent Action and Concentration Addition as tools for the prediction and assessment of mixture toxicities will be discussed. An overview of the specific aims and approaches of the BEAM project to fill in the identified knowledge gaps is given and first results are outlined.     

Ground-motion scenarios on Mt. Etna inferred from empirical relations and synthetic simulations

Ground motion scenarios for Mt. Etna are created using synthetic simulations with the program EXSIM. A large data set of weak motion records is exploited to identify important input parameters which govern the modeling of wave propagation effects, such as Q-values, high frequency cut-off and geometrical spreading. These parameters are used in the simulation of ground motion for earthquakes causing severe damage in the area. Two seismotectonic regimes are distinguished. Volcano-tectonic events, though being of limited magnitude (M_max ca. 5), cause strong ground shaking for their shallow foci. Being rather frequent, these events represent a considerable threat to cities and villages on the flanks of the volcano. A second regime is related to earthquakes with foci in the crust, at depths of 10–30 km, and magnitudes ranging from 6 to 7. In our synthetic scenarios, we chose two examples of volcano-tectonic events, i.e. the October 29, 2002, Bongiardo event (I = VIII) and the May 8, 1914, Linera earthquake (I = IX–X). A further scenario regards the February 20, 1818 event, considered representative for stronger earthquakes with foci in the crust. We were able to reproduce the essential features of the macroseismic field, in particular accounting for the possibility of strong site effects. We learned that stress drop estimated for weak motion events is probably too low to explain the intensity of ground motion during stronger earthquakes. This corresponds to findings reported in the literature claiming an increase of stress drop with earthquake size.     

Evaluation of remotely‐sensed DEMs and modification based on plausibility rules and initial sediment budgets of an artificially‐created catchment

To quantify landscape change resulting from processes of erosion and deposition and to establish spatially distributed sediment budgets, ‘models of change’ can be established from a time series of digital elevation models (DEMs). However, resolution effects and measurement errors in DEMs may propagate to these models. This study aimed to evaluate and to modify remotely‐sensed DEMs for an improved quantification of initial sediment mass changes in an artificially‐created catchment. DEMs were constructed from photogrammetry‐based, airborne (ALS) and ground‐based laser scanning (TLS) data. Regions of differing morphological characteristics and vegetation cover were delineated. Three‐dimensional (3D) models of volume change were established and mass change was derived from these models. DEMs were modified region‐by‐region for rill, interrill and alluvial areas, based on logical and hydro‐geomorphological principles. Additional DEMs were constructed by combining multi‐source, modified data. Models were evaluated by comparison with d‐GPS reference data and by considering sediment budget plausibility. Comprehensive evaluation showed that DEM usability depends on a relation between the technique used to obtain elevation data, surface morphology and vegetation cover characteristics. Photogrammetry‐based DEMs were suited to quantification of change in interrill areas but strongly underestimated surface lowering in erosion rills. TLS DEMs were best suited to rill areas, while ALS DEMs performed best in vegetation‐covered alluvial areas. Agreement with reference data and budget plausibility were improved by modifications to photogrammetry‐ and TLS‐based DEMs. Results suggest that artefacts in DEMs can be reduced and hydro‐geomorphic surface structures can be better represented by applying region‐specific modifications. Photogrammetry‐based DEMs can be improved by combining higher and lower resolution data in defined structural units and applying modifications based on principles given by characteristic hydro‐geomorphic evolution. Results of the critical comparative evaluation of remotely‐sensed elevation data can help to better interpret DEM‐based quantifications of earth‐surface processes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sedimentary Deposits from the 17 July 2006 Western Java Tsunami,Indonesia: Use of Grain Size Analyses to Assess Tsunami Flow Depth,Speed, and Traction Carpet Characteristics

The 2006 western Java tsunami deposited a discontinuous sheet of sand up to 20 cm thick, flooded coastal southern Java to a depth of at least 8 m and inundated up to 1 km inland. In most places the primarily heavy mineral sand sheet is normally graded, and in some it contains complex internal stratigraphy. Structures within the sand sheet probably record the passage of up to two individual waves, a point noted in eyewitness accounts. We studied the 2006 tsunami deposits in detail along a flow parallel transect about 750 m long, 15 km east of Cilacap. The tsunami deposit first becomes discernable from the underlying sediment 70 m from the shoreline. From 75 to 300 m inland the deposit has been laid down in rice paddies, and maintains a thickness of 10–20 cm. Landward of 300 m the deposit thins dramatically, reaching 1 mm by 450 m inland. From 450 m to the edge of deposition (around 700 m inland) the deposit remains <1 mm thick. Deposition generally attended inundation—along the transect, the tsunami deposited sand to within about 40 m of the inundation limit. The thicker part of the deposit contains primarily sand indistinguishable from that found on the beach 3 weeks after the event, but after about 450 m (and roughly coinciding with the decrease in thickness) the tsunami sediment shifts to become more like the underlying paddy soil than the beach sand. Grain sizes within the deposit tend to fine upward and landward, although overall upward fining takes place in two discrete pulses, with an initial section of inverse grading followed by a section of normal grading. The two inversely graded sections are also density graded, with denser grains at the base, and less dense grains at the top. The two normally graded sections show no trends in density. The inversely graded sections show high density sediment to the base and become less dense upward and represents traction carpet flows at the base of the tsunami. These are suggestive of high shear rates in the flow. Because of the grain sorting in the traction carpet, the landward-fining trends usually seen in tsunami deposits are masked, although lateral changes of mean sediment grain size along the transect do show overall landward fining, with more variation as the deposit tapers off. The deposit is also thicker in the more seaward portions than would be produced by tsunamis lacking traction carpets.     

Seismostratigraphic analysis with centennial to decadal time resolution of the sediment sink in the Ganges-Brahmaputra subaqueous delta

The deltas of large rivers have become the focus of many research studies due to their vulnerability in times of expected sea level rise. One major delta in peril is the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta (Bangladesh) due to its low elevation and high subsidence rate. In this study, high-resolution seismic and sediment echosounder data of the subaqueous part of the delta are analyzed by an integrated seismo-acoustic stratigraphic approach.Transparent Units (TUs) are the most prominent, continuously traceable architectural elements within the sigmoidal clinoform. TUs consist of homogenized sediments and are interpreted to be formed by liquefaction flows generated by subduction-related earthquakes of the nearby plate-boundary. The uppermost TUs are related to the historical well known major earthquakes which occurred in 1762, 1897 and 1950. Using the TUs as time marks the mean annual storage rates for the intervals could be assessed. A direct comparison of echosounder data gathered in 1994, 1997 and 2006 is used as another method to estimate the last decade mean annual storage rate.In general, the averaged decadal to centennial mean annual storage rates in the foreset beds have significantly decreased within the last ∼300 years from 22% to 18% and down to 13.8% of the present total annual fluviatile suspension supply to the delta (10⁹ t a⁻¹). This decrease, however, is not evenly distributed along the foreset beds. In the western clinoform mean annual storage rates slightly decreased during the last ∼300 years, whereas in the eastern clinoform the mean annual storage rate of the last decade is one-third of the initial value in the late eighteenth century.The variation of clinoform slope angles generally coincides with the local accumulation rates but a variable degree of asymmetry gives some new insights in the future trend of the subaqueous delta development. The sink of sediment in the western clinoform depocentre landward of the inflection point, where shape changes from convex to concave, is producing an increase in concavity.The decline in monsoon precipitation over the last centuries is assumed to have significantly contributed to the decreased mean annual storage rate in the eastern clinoform where the convexity of the clinoform increases seaward of the inflection point. It is very likely that the whole depocentre of the fluvial sediment load is shifting toward the western subaqueous delta and to the Swatch of No Ground Canyon and, thereby, increasing the export to the deep-sea fan.