Assessment of a conceptual hydrological model and artificial neural networks for daily outflows forecasting

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are used by hydrologists and engineers to forecast flows at the outlet of a watershed. They are employed in particular where hydrological data are limited. Despite these developments, practitioners still prefer conventional hydrological models. This study applied the standard conceptual HEC-HMS’s soil moisture accounting (SMA) algorithm and the multi layer perceptron (MLP) for forecasting daily outflows at the outlet of Khosrow Shirin watershed in Iran. The MLP [optimized with the scaled conjugate gradient] used the logistic and tangent sigmoid activation functions resulting into 12 ANNs. The R ² and RMSE values for the best trained MPLs using the tangent and logistic sigmoid transfer function were 0.87, 1.875 m³ s^?1 and 0.81, 2.297 m³ s^?1, respectively. The results showed that MLPs optimized with the tangent sigmoid predicted peak flows and annual flood volumes more accurately than the HEC-HMS model with the SMA algorithm, with R ² and RMSE values equal to 0.87, 0.84 and 1.875 and 2.1 m³ s^?1, respectively. Also, an MLP is easier to develop due to using a simple trial and error procedure. Practitioners of hydrologic modeling and flood flow forecasting may consider this study as an example of the capability of the ANN for real world flow forecasting.     

Dolomitic slates from Uruguay: petrophysical and petromechanical characterization and deposit evaluation

Slates are internationally known as roof and façade-cladding material since prehistoric times. The methods required to mine and manufacture these dimensional stones are relatively simple in comparison to those utilized in granitic dimensional stones. This has led to a worldwide rentable commercialization of slate in the last centuries and also to the development of characteristic cultural landscapes. In Uruguay several slates are mined and used in architecture, especially as façade cladding and floor slabs. The most important slates regarding their production and utilization are the dolomitic slates. These dolomitic slates are associated with the Neoproterozoic thrust and fold belt of the Dom Feliciano belt. Representative samples have been geochemically and petrographically characterized, as well as petrophysically and petromechanically analyzed. The petrophysical and petromechanical properties were investigated in a very systematic way with respect to the new European standards, showing values comparable to those registered for internationally known slates. Detailed structural and deposit analysis were carried out in Uruguay in order to evaluate the dolomitic slate deposits. The slates are linked to calc-silicate strata in a greenschist facies volcano-sedimentary sequence and the deposits are located in the limb of a regional fold, where bedding and cleavage are parallel. The main lithotype is a layered and fine-grained dolomitic slate with a quite diverse palette of colors: light and dark green, gray, dark gray, reddish and black. The mined slate is split into slabs 0.5–2 cm thick. In the past, the average production in Uruguay was around 4,000 tons/year and a historical maximum of 13,000 tons was reached in 1993 (Oyhantçabal et al. in Z dt Ges Geowiss 158(3):417–428, 2007). The oscillations in the regional demand were the cause of several flourishing and decay cycles in the activity, but our investigation shows a considerable volume of indicated resources and therefore a very good potential.     

Comparing the Hawkes and Trigger Process Models for Aftershock Sequences Following the 2005 Kashmir Earthquake

In an earlier study (Van Lieshout and Stein in Math Gesoci 44(3):309–326, 2012) we postulated the existence of two major earthquakes in the 2005 Kashmir disaster instead of a single one, based upon the pattern of aftershocks. In this study, we explore this hypothesis further by fitting several spatial point pattern models. In particular, we discuss the Hawkes and the trigger process models for earthquake aftershock sequences following the Kashmir catastrophe in 2005. The minimum contrast method is used for estimation of the parameters. The study shows that the trigger model fits better than the Hawkes model. The most likely number of main shocks is rounded to 2 generating the almost 200 aftershocks, whereas the Hawkes model would estimate a parent process of approximately 18 parents with on average about 10 descendants. We conclude that the spatial pattern of aftershocks can best be understood as a mixture of two bivariate normal distributions centered around two major shocks and estimate the parameters.     

Ethnic Restructuring in Rural America: Migration and the Changing Faces of Rural Communities in the Great Plains

Scholars have long documented widespread aging and depopulation of rural communities in the Great Plains. Paralleling these trends is the emergence, growth, and spatial dispersion of new and longtime non-white populations across the region. The dual processes of population loss in many counties combined with the growth of new, non-white population groups suggest that the ethnic structure of the population is changing. In this article we utilize choropleth maps, Hoover and Simpson indexes, and cluster analysis to assess whether the emergence and growth of ethnic minority groups in the Great Plains between 1970 and 2008 is a localized phenomenon or region-wide shift in the ethnic composition of the population. Results suggest that as depopulation is occurring in many counties of this region, the growth of non-white populations, both immigrant and native born, is changing or restructuring the ethnic composition of the Great Plains.     

Identifying factors of influence in the spatial distribution of domestic fires

Domestic fires at the city level, being causes for casualties and causing significant material damages, are stored as a point pattern in a GIS. In this paper we apply a statistical point pattern analysis to derive major causes from related layers of information. We fit a G-function to analyse neighbourhood relations and a Strauss process for inferring causal relations. Using open-source software we find significant differences in patterns and explaining factors between the different parts of the day, in particular for different building types and income groups. We conclude that a quantitative spatial model can be fitted and that this provides a useful opportunity for fire brigades to improve planning their efforts.     

Forsterite‐bearing type B refractory inclusions from CV3 chondrites: From aggregates to volatilized melt droplets

Abstract– Detailed petrologic and oxygen isotopic analysis of six forsterite‐bearing Type B calcium‐aluminum‐rich inclusions (FoBs) from CV3 chondrites indicates that they formed by varying degrees of melting of primitive precursor material that resembled amoeboid olivine aggregates. A continuous evolutionary sequence exists between those objects that experienced only slight partial melting or sintering through objects that underwent prolonged melting episodes. In most cases, melting was accompanied by surface evaporative loss of magnesium and silicon. This loss resulted in outer margins that are very different in composition from the cores, so much so that in some cases, the mantles contain mineral assemblages that are petrologically incompatible with those in the cores. The precursor objects for these FoBs had a range of bulk compositions and must therefore have formed under varying conditions if they condensed from a solar composition gas. Five of the six objects show small degrees of mass‐dependent oxygen isotopic fractionation in pyroxene, spinel, and olivine, consistent with the inferred melt evaporation, but there are no consistent differences among the three phases. Forsterite, spinel, and pyroxene are ¹⁶O‐rich with Δ¹⁷O ～ ?24‰ in all FoBs. Melilite and anorthite show a range of Δ¹⁷O from ?17‰ to ?1‰.     

Late Weichselian fluvial evolution on the southern Kara Sea Shelf, North Siberia

Glaciations had a profound impact on the global sea-level and particularly on the Arctic environments. One of the key questions related to this topic is, how did the discharge of the Siberian Ob and Yenisei rivers interact with a proximal ice sheet? In order to answer this question high-resolution (1–12 kHz), shallow-penetration seismic profiles were collected on the passive continental margin of the Kara Sea Shelf to study the paleo-drainage pattern of the Ob and Yenisei rivers. Both rivers incised into the recent shelf, leaving filled and unfilled river channels and river canyons/valleys connecting to a complex paleo-drainage network.These channels have been subaerially formed during a regressive phase of the global sea-level during the Last Glacial Maximum. Beyond recent shelf depths of 120 m particle transport is manifested in submarine channel–levee complexes acting as conveyor for fluvial-derived fines. In the NE area, uniform draping sediments are observed. Major morphology determining factors are (1) sea-level fluctuations and (2) LGM ice sheet influence. Most individual channels show geometries typical for meandering rivers and appear to be an order of magnitude larger than recent channel profiles of gauge stations on land.The Yenisei paleo-channels have larger dimensions than the Ob examples and could be originated by additional water release during the melt of LGM Putoran ice masses.Asymmetrical submarine channel–levee complexes with channel depths of 60 m and more developed, in some places bordered by glacially dominated morphology, implying deflection by the LGM ice masses. A total of more than 12,000 km of acoustic profiles reveal no evidence for an ice-dammed lake of greater areal extent postulated by several workers. Furthermore, the existence of the channel–levee complexes is indicative of unhindered sediment flow to the north. Channels situated on the shelf above 120-m water depth exhibit no phases of ponding and or infill during sea-level lowstand. These findings denote the non-existence of an ice sheet on large areas of the Kara Sea shelf.     

Analysis of post-disaster damage and disruptive impacts on the operating status of small businesses after Hurricane Katrina

When small businesses are impacted by natural hazard events, hazard and sociological researchers may have access to collect data from a sample of open businesses, in hopes of distilling lessons that might help reduce vulnerability to future disasters. Lessons from demised businesses might be more useful in reducing business closure for increasing business sustainability to disasters. Using interviews from a random sample of 371 open and 126 closed businesses’ experiences with Hurricane Katrina, discrete choice methods examine the relationship between the impact of post-disaster damage, loss of lifelines, types of delays in reopening, and cascading damages on business continuity. This unique sample offers the opportunity to determine whether damage to operating businesses was different than that of demised businesses. Respondents provided pre-Katrina data up through the last interviews in 2013. Results demonstrate that damage may have a short-term effect on operating status; it was associated with immediate demise but had much less effect on longer-term recovery. Additionally, it is evident that there is one path to failure. Businesses that did reopen, but later closed, may have been impacted by a cascade of both exogenous and endogenous shocks.