Spatio-temporal regression kriging for modelling urban NO2 concentrations

ABSTRACT

Recently developed urban air quality sensor networks are used to monitor air pollutant concentrations at a fine spatial and temporal resolution. The measurements are however limited to point support. To obtain areal coverage in space and time, interpolation is required. A spatio-temporal regression kriging approach was applied to predict nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) concentrations at unobserved space-time locations in the city of Eindhoven, the Netherlands. Prediction maps were created at 25 m spatial resolution and hourly temporal resolution. In regression kriging, the trend is separately modelled from autocorrelation in the residuals. The trend part of the model, consisting of a set of spatial and temporal covariates, was able to explain 49.2% of the spatio-temporal variability in NO₂ concentrations in Eindhoven in November 2016. Spatio-temporal autocorrelation in the residuals was modelled by fitting a sum-metric spatio-temporal variogram model, adding smoothness to the prediction maps. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed using leave-one-out cross-validation, resulting in a Root Mean Square Error of 9.91 μg m^?3, a Mean Error of ?0.03 μg m^?3 and a Mean Absolute Error of 7.29 μg m^?3. The method allows for easy prediction and visualization of air pollutant concentrations and can be extended to a near real-time procedure.     

Estimating Benefits in a Recovering Estuary: Tampa Bay,Florida

Restoration and preservation of riparian forests and coastal marshes provides nutrient removal and other biochemical and physical functions which may preclude, reduce, or delay the need for additional water treatment, while also protecting human health. We examined the ecosystem goods and related potential cost savings for the Tampa Bay community from seagrass expansion (more than 3,100 ha since 1990), coastal marsh, and mangrove restoration/recovery (more than 600 ha since 1990), and habitat that has been maintained or preserved. Habitats in and around Tampa Bay provide nutrient reductions equivalent to just over US$22 million per year in avoided wastewater treatment plant costs. Future accrual of value associated with maintaining the ecosystem good of usable clean water could rapidly increase to as high as ～US$3 billion per year, when one takes into account the additional costs of water treatment and storm water diversion infrastructure that is likely as the region’s population continues to grow. There is additional value accrual close to a quarter million dollars per year based on avoided social costs to the global community due to greenhouse gases sequestered by bay habitats. Most human beneficiaries associated with the maintenance of usable clean water in Tampa Bay are part of the surrounding regional community. The large current and future cost savings for the community surrounding Tampa Bay and additional benefits for the global community speak to the value of maintaining a healthy bay through past and continued restoration and preservation efforts.     

Markov-random-field-based super-resolution mapping for identification of urban trees in VHR images

Identification of tree crowns from remote sensing requires detailed spectral information and submeter spatial resolution imagery. Traditional pixel-based classification techniques do not fully exploit the spatial and spectral characteristics of remote sensing datasets. We propose a contextual and probabilistic method for detection of tree crowns in urban areas using a Markov random field based super resolution mapping (SRM) approach in very high resolution images. Our method defines an objective energy function in terms of the conditional probabilities of panchromatic and multispectral images and it locally optimizes the labeling of tree crown pixels. Energy and model parameter values are estimated from multiple implementations of SRM in tuning areas and the method is applied in QuickBird images to produce a 0.6 m tree crown map in a city of The Netherlands. The SRM output shows an identification rate of 66% and commission and omission errors in small trees and shrub areas. The method outperforms tree crown identification results obtained with maximum likelihood, support vector machines and SRM at nominal resolution (2.4 m) approaches.     

Manganese-rich brown layers in Arctic Ocean sediments: Composition, formation mechanisms, and diagenetic overprint

We present inorganic geochemical analyses of pore waters and sediments of two Late Quaternary sediment cores from the western Arctic Ocean (southern Mendeleev Ridge, RV Polarstern Expedition ARK-XXIII/3), focussing on the composition and origin of distinct, brown-colored, Mn-rich sediment layers. Carbonate enrichments occur in association with these layers as peaks in Ca/Al, Mg/Al, Sr/Al and Sr/Mg, suggesting enhanced input of both ice-rafted and biogenic carbonate. For the first time, we show that the Mn-rich layers layers are also consistently enriched in the scavenged trace metals Co, Cu, Mo and Ni. Distinct bioturbation patterns, specifically well-defined brown burrows into the underlying sediments, suggest these metal enrichments formed close to the sediment-water interface. The geochemical signature of these metal- and carbonate-rich layers most probably documents formation under warmer climate conditions with an intensified continental hydrological cycle and only seasonal sea ice cover. Both rivers and sea ice delivered trace metals to the Arctic Ocean, while enhanced seasonal productivity exported reactive organic matter to the sea floor. The coeval deposition of organic matter, Mn (oxyhydr)oxides and trace metals triggered intense diagenetic Mn cycling at the sediment-water interface. These processes resulted in the formation of Mn and trace metal enrichments, and the degradation of labile organic matter. With the onset of cooler conditions, reduced riverine runoff and/or a solid sea ice cover terminated the input of riverine trace metal and fresh organic matter, resulting in deposition of grayish-yellowish, metal-poor sediments. Oxygen depletion of Arctic bottom waters under these cooler conditions is not supported by our data, and did not cause the sedimentary Mn distribution. While the original composition and texture of the brown layers resulted from specific climatic conditions and corresponding diagenetic processes, pore water data show that diagenetic Mn redistribution is still affecting the organic-poor deeper sediments. Given persistent steady state conditions, purely authigenic Mn-rich brown layers may form, while others may be partly or completely dissolved. The degree of diagenetic Mn redistribution largely depends on the depositional environment, the Mn and organic matter availability, and apparently affected the Co/Mo ratios of Mn-rich layers. Thus, brown Arctic layers are not necessarily synchronous features, and should not be correlated across the Arctic Ocean without additional age control.     

The remarkable Re–Os chronometer in molybdenite: how and why it works

The Re–Os (rhenium–osmium) chronometer applied to molybdenite (MoS₂) is now demonstrated to be remarkably robust, surviving intense deformation and high‐grade thermal metamorphism. Successful dating of molybdenite is dependent on proper preparation of the mineral separate and analysis of a critical quantity of molybdenite, unique to each sample, such that recognized spatial decoupling of ¹⁸⁷Re parent and ¹⁸⁷Os daughter within individual molybdenite crystals is overcome. Highly precise, accurate and reproducible age results are derived through isotope dilution and negative thermal ion mass spectrometry (ID‐NTIMS). Spatial decoupling of parent–daughter precludes use of the laser ablation ICP‐MS microanalytical technique for Re–Os dating of molybdenite. The use of a reference or control sample is necessary to establish laboratory credibility and for interlaboratory comparisons. The Rb–Sr, K–Ar and ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar chronometers are susceptible to chemical and thermal disturbance, particularly in terranes that have experienced subsequent episodes of hydrothermal/magmatic activity, and therefore should not be used as a basis for establishing accuracy in Re–Os dating of molybdenite, as has been done in the past. Re–Os ages for molybdenite are almost always in agreement with observed geological relationships and, when available, with zircon and titanite U–Pb ages. For terranes experiencing multiple episodes of metamorphism and deformation, molybdenite is not complicated by overgrowths as is common for some minerals used in U–Pb dating (e.g. zircon, monazite, xenotime), nor are Re and Os mobilized beyond the margins of individual crystals during solid‐state recrystallization. Moreover, inheritance of older molybdenite cores, incorporation of common Os, and radiogenic Os loss are exceedingly rare, whereas inheritance, common Pb and Pb loss are common complications in U–Pb dating techniques. Therefore, molybdenite ages may serve as point‐in‐time markers for age comparisons.     

Calendar year age estimates of Allerød–Younger Dryas sea‐level oscillations at Os,western Norway

A detailed shoreline displacement curve documents the Younger Dryas transgression in western Norway. The relative sea‐level rise was more than 9 m in an area which subsequently experienced an emergence of almost 60 m. The sea‐level curve is based on the stratigraphy of six isolation basins with bedrock thresholds. Effort has been made to establish an accurate chronology using a calendar year time‐scale by ¹⁴C wiggle matching and the use of time synchronic markers (the Vedde Ash Bed and the post‐glacial rise in Betula (birch) pollen). The sea‐level curve demonstrates that the Younger Dryas transgression started close to the Allerød–Younger Dryas transition and that the high stand was reached only 200 yr before the Younger Dryas–Holocene boundary. The sea level remained at the high stand for about 300 yr and 100 yr into Holocene it started to fall rapidly. The peak of the Younger Dryas transgression occurred simultaneously with the maximum extent of the ice‐sheet readvance in the area. Our results support earlier geophysical modelling concluding a causal relationship between the Younger Dryas glacier advance and Younger Dryas transgression in western Norway. We argue that the sea‐level curve indicates that the Younger Dryas glacial advance started in the late Allerød or close to the Allerød–Younger Dryas transition. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Gaussian approximations to conditional distributions for multi-Gaussian processes

Suppose a multi-Gaussian process is observed at some set of sites, and we wish to obtain the conditional block grade distribution given some observations. We show that this conditional distribution is approximately Gaussian under certain conditions. In particular, given a single observation from a continuous multi-Gaussian process, the conditional distribution under a small change of support is approximately Gaussian unless, roughly speaking, the observed process is twice differentiable and the observation site is at the center of mass of the support region. A Gaussian approximation for the conditional prediction error of the total ore in a fixed region is considered also, although an example demonstrates that a naive analysis can give incorrect limiting conditional means.     

An earthquake swarm on the Chagos—Laccadive Ridge and its tectonic implications

Summary. An unusual, isolated swarm of earthquakes occurred on the Chagos-Laccadive Ridge in the Central Indian Ocean between 1965 and 1970. Sixteen earthquakes were "located at approximately 6.0° S, 71.3°E on the steep west facing scarp of the Chagos Bank. This swarm forms the only major seismic activity in the period 1963–76 on the otherwise aseismic ridge. The mechanisms of the three largest earthquakes were studied using body- and surface-wave data. All are extremely similar shallow normal fault events on an east—west fault plane. Such faulting is difficult to reconcile with that expected from either the trend of the Chagos-Laccadive Ridge or the spreading direction at the nearby Central Indian Ridge. The swarm may have occurred at depth on a cross fracture remaining from the breakup of the Chagos Bank and the Mascarene Plateau and the formation of the present Central Indian Ridge.     

Some asymptotic properties of kriging when the covariance function is misspecified

The impact of using an incorrect covariance function on kriging predictors is investigated. Results of Stein (1988) show that the impact on the kriging predictor from not using the correct covariance function is asymptotically negligible as the number of observations increases if the covariance function used is compatible with the actual covariance function on the region of interestR. The definition and some properties of compatibility of covariance functions are given. The compatibility of generalized covariances also is defined. Compatibility supports the intuitively sensible concept that usually only the behavior near the origin of the covariance function is critical for purposes of kriging. However, the commonly used spherical covariance function is an exception: observations at a distance near the range of a spherical covariance function can have a nonnegligible effect on kriging predictors for three-dimensional processes. Finally, a comparison is made with the perturbation approach of Diamond and Armstrong (1984) and some observations of Warnes (1986) are clarified.     

Large earthquakes kill coral reefs at the north-west Gulf of Aqaba

Down‐faulting at the north‐west margins of the Gulf of Aqaba is inferred to have triggered a catastrophic sedimentary event at 2.3 ka that killed the Elat fringing coral reef. Whereas segments of the Holocene reef were perfectly fossilized and preserved beneath a veneer of siliciclastic sediments, other segments were abraded, settled by nomads, and later re‐submerged under 4 m of water. Repeated damage triggered by down‐throwing earthquakes degenerate the fringing reefs of the north‐west end of the gulf. Conversely, on the north‐eastern and southern parts of the gulf, where earthquakes uplift the margins, modern reefs are thriving, attached to uplifted fossil reef terraces. Therefore, coastal subsidence moderates the development of fringing coral reefs during the late Holocene sea‐level stand still.