A robust debris-flow and GLOF risk management strategy for a data-scarce catchment in Santa Teresa,Peru

The town of Santa Teresa (Cusco Region, Peru) has been affected by several large debris-flow events in the recent past, which destroyed parts of the town and resulted in a resettlement of the municipality. Here, we present a risk analysis and a risk management strategy for debris-flows and glacier lake outbursts in the Sacsara catchment. Data scarcity and limited understanding of both physical and social processes impede a full quantitative risk assessment. Therefore, a bottom-up approach is chosen in order to establish an integrated risk management strategy that is robust against uncertainties in the risk analysis. With the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) model, a reconstruction of a major event from 1998 in the Sacsara catchment is calculated, including a sensitivity analysis for various model parameters. Based on the simulation results, potential future debris-flows scenarios of different magnitudes, including outbursts of two glacier lakes, are modeled for assessing the hazard. For the local communities in the catchment, the hazard assessment is complemented by the analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery and fieldwork. Physical, social, economic, and institutional vulnerability are considered for the vulnerability assessment, and risk is eventually evaluated by crossing the local hazard maps with the vulnerability. Based on this risk analysis, a risk management strategy is developed, consisting of three complementing elements: (i) standardized risk sheets for the communities; (ii) activities with the local population and authorities to increase social and institutional preparedness; and (iii) a simple Early Warning System. By combining scientific, technical, and social aspects, this work is an example of a framework for an integrated risk management strategy in a data scarce, remote mountain catchment in a developing country.     

Comparative Seismic Risk Studies for German Earthquake Regions on the Basis of the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98

Within the framework of recent research projects, basic tools for GIS-based seismic risk assessment technologies were developed and applied to the building stock and regional particularities of German earthquake regions. Two study areas are investigated, being comparable by the level of seismic hazard and the hazard-consistent scenario events (related to mean return periods of 475, 2475 and 10000 years). Significant differences exist with respect to the number of inhabitants, the grade and extent of urbanisation, the quality and quantity of building inventory: the case study of Schmölln in Eastern Thuringia seems to be representative for the majority of smaller towns in Germany, the case study of Cologne (Köln) stands for larger cities. Due to the similarities of hazard and scenario intensities, the considerable differences do not only require proper decisions concerning the appropriate methods and acceptable efforts, they enable conclusions about future research strategies and needs for disaster reduction management. Not least important, results can sharpen the focus of public interest. Seismic risk maps are prepared for different scenario intensities recognising the scatter and uncertainties of site-dependent ground motion and also of the applied vulnerability functions. The paper illustrates the impact of model assumptions and the step-wise refinements of input variables like site conditions, building stock or vulnerability functions on the distribution of expected building damage within the study areas. Furthermore, and in contrast to common research strategies, results support the conclusion that in the case of stronger earthquakes the damage will be of higher concentration within smaller cities like Schmölln due to the site-amplification potential and/or the increased vulnerability of the building stock. The extent of damage will be pronounced by the large number of masonry buildings for which lower vulnerability classes have to be assigned. Due to the effect of deep sedimentary layers and the composition of building types, the urban centre of Cologne will be less affected by an earthquake of comparable intensity.     

The postglacial environmental development of Raffles Sø, East Greenland: inferences from a 10,000 year diatom record

A 341 cm long sediment sequence was recovered from the unofficially named Raffles Sø on Raffles Ø, outer Scoresby Sund region, East Greenland. The sediment sequence consists in the upper part (0–230 cm) of a stratified gyttja enriched in organic carbon and biogenic silica whereas the lower core part (235–341 cm) is composed of terrigenous, consolidated glacio-limnic sediments. ¹⁴C-AMS measurements indicate that the sediment sequence represents the entire Holocene lake history from 10,030 calibrated radiocarbon years.The geochemical parameters (opal, total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN)) and the total diatom concentration show similar developments during the Holocene, and reflect changes in biological production and nutrient input into the lake. These records clearly reveal a broad Holocene TOC-opal-maximum interval between 5200 and 1800 cal. yrs BP.The diatom flora consisted of 66 taxa representing 20 genera but only seven taxa were abundant and, sometimes, these were monospecifically dominant during the Holocene. In the sediment core from Raffles Sø four successive stratigraphical zones can be distinguished. Accumulation of diatom valves began at 9900 cal. yrs BP with a Stephanodiscus minutulus (Kütz.) Cleve and Möller dominated assemblage (stratigraphic zone 1) followed by a diatom flora dominated by Cyclotella pseudostelligera Hustedt and, less frequently, by Diatoma tenuis Agardh (9400 until 5900 cal. yrs BP, zone 2). Cyclotella sp. A, a taxon which belongs to the Cyclotella rossii-comensis-tripartita-complex, was the dominant floral element between 5200 and 1800 cal. yrs BP (zone 3). From 1800 cal. yrs BP, the periphytic taxa Fragilaria capucina var. gracilis (Østr.) Hustedt and F. capucina var. rumpens (Kütz.) Lange-Bertalot attained highest relative abundances, also almost monospecifically (zone 4).The distribution and composition of the diatom assemblages in the sediment record from Raffles Sø probably reflect past variations in the extent of the lake-ice cover during the growing season. More or less ice-free conditions during summer may have prevailed during the early Holocene until ca. 1800 cal. yrs BP, which allowed growth of planktonic diatoms (Cyclotella taxa) in the pelagic lake region. From 1800 cal. yrs BP, colder conditions lead to a perennial lake-ice cover with a small ice-free moat in summer which favored the growth of periphytic, littoral species (Fragilaria capucina varieties).     

Ar loss in experimentally deformed muscovite and biotite with implications for Ar/Ar geochronology of naturally deformed rocks

The effects of deformation on radiogenic argon (⁴⁰Ar^∗) retentivity in mica are described from high pressure experiments performed on rock samples of peraluminous granite containing euhedral muscovite and biotite. Cylindrical cores, ∼15 mm in length and 6.25 mm in diameter, were drilled from granite collected from the South Armorican Massif in northwestern France, loaded into gold capsules, and weld-sealed in the presence of excess water. The samples were deformed at a pressure of 10 kb and a temperature of 600 °C over a period 29 of hours within a solid medium assembly in a Griggs-type triaxial hydraulic deformation apparatus. Overall shortening in the experiments was approximately 10%. Transmitted light and secondary and backscattered electron imaging of the deformed granite samples reveals evidence of induced defects and for significant physical grain size reduction by kinking, cracking, and grain segmentation of the micas.Infrared (IR) laser (CO₂) heating of individual 1.5-2.5 mm diameter grains of muscovite and biotite separated from the undeformed granite yield well-defined ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar plateau ages of 311 ± 2 Ma (2σ). Identical experiments on single grains separated from the experimentally deformed granite yield results indicating ⁴⁰Ar^∗ loss of 0-35% in muscovite and 2-3% ⁴⁰Ar^∗ loss in biotite. Intragrain in situ ultraviolet (UV) laser ablation ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages (±4-10%, 1σ) of deformed muscovites range from 309 ± 13 to 264 ± 7 Ma, consistent with 0-16% ⁴⁰Ar^∗ loss relative to the undeformed muscovite. The in situ UV laser ablation ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages of deformed biotite vary from 301 to 217 Ma, consistent with up to 32% ⁴⁰Ar^∗ loss. No spatial correlation is observed between in situ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age and position within individual grains. Using available argon diffusion data for muscovite the observed ⁴⁰Ar^∗ loss in the experimentally treated muscovite can be utilized to predict average ⁴⁰Ar^∗ diffusion dimensions. Maximum ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages obtained by UV laser ablation overlap those of the undeformed muscovite, indicating argon loss of <1% and an average effective grain radius for ⁴⁰Ar^∗ diffusion ?700 μm. The UV laser ablation and IR laser incremental ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages indicating ⁴⁰Ar^∗ loss of 16% and 35%, respectively, are consistent with an average diffusion radius ?100 μm. These results support a hypothesis of grain-scale ⁴⁰Ar^∗ diffusion distances in undeformed mica and a heterogeneous mechanical reduction in the intragrain effective diffusion length scale for ⁴⁰Ar^∗ in deformed mica. Reduction in the effective diffusion length scale in naturally deformed samples occurs most probably through production of mesoscopic and submicroscopic defects such as, e.g., stacking faults. A network of interconnected defects, continuously forming and annealing during dynamic deformation likely plays an important role in controlling both ⁴⁰Ar^∗ retention and intragrain distribution in deformed mica. Intragrain ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages, when combined with estimates of diffusion kinetics and distances, may provide a means of establishing thermochronological histories from individual micas.     

NMR Measurements in Carbonate Rocks: Problems and an Approach to a Solution

Carbonate rocks are well known for their complex petrophysical behavior where, in contrast to siliciclastic rocks, different parameters, including porosity and permeability, usually are not directly related. This behavior is the result of thorough reorganization of porosity during diagenesis, and it turns prediction of reservoir quality of carbonate rocks into a challenge. The study presented here deals with the problem of utilizing NMR techniques in prediction of petrophysical properties in carbonates.We employ a visual porosity classification as a priori knowledge for better interpreting NMR data for prediction purposes. This allows for choice of suitable T₂ cutoff values to differentiate movable from bound fluids adapted for the specific carbonate rock, thus resulting in better interpretation of NMR data. The approach of using a genetic pore type classification for adapting the conventional method for T₂ cutoff determination, which originally was developed for siliciclastic rocks, is promising. Similarly, for permeability determination on the basis of NMR measurements, the classification of carbonate rocks based on porosity types also shows potential. The approach implemented here has the promise to provide a basis of standardized interpretation of NMR data from carbonate rocks.Acknowledgment We are grateful to Baker Hughes INTEQ, Celle, for permission to publish the results of this work. This study was part of I.S.s Masters Thesis at Hannover University that was carried out in collaboration with Baker Hughes INTEQ, Celle, Germany. We appreciate comments of an anonymous referee and PAGEOPH editor Brian J. Mitchell.     

高亚洲及其邻区2003~2017年质量平衡的气候影响分析

利用重力恢复和气候实验(GRACE)数据获得高亚洲及其邻近地区的质量变化,可分析区域气候因素如印度季风、西风带和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)对结果的影响。然而,最近的研究发现,西风带的贡献小于厄尔尼诺,与传统研究结论不同。因此,利用2003-01~2017-06期间GRACE RL06的Mascon数据进行复经验正交函数（CEOF）分析。研究发现,前3个主要成分对研究区质量变化的贡献率分别为53%、27%和6%,与印度季风、西风带和ENSO指数的相关系数分别是0.92±0.16、0.70±0.15和0.42±0.15,说明在长达14 a的观测时间跨度内,印度季风、西风带和ENSO对研究区质量变化的贡献分别为53%、27%和6%,西风带是研究区质量变化的第2个影响因素,这支持了传统的研究结论;ENSO通过印度季风对某些区域（如帕米尔高原、喜马拉雅山脉和印度西北部）的质量变化产生影响;在印度西北部、喜马拉雅山脉和藏东南地区,由于印度季风的减弱及其相关的ENSO作用和西风带的加强,质量变化呈现下降趋势;在兴都库什、西昆仑和东昆仑地区,由于西风带的增强,质量变化呈上升的趋势;在帕米尔和天山地区,虽然受到较强西风带的影响,但由于同时受到印度季风和ENSO减弱以及气温上升趋势的影响,质量变化呈下降的趋势。     

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A space-time discontinuous Galerkin method applied to single-phase flow in porous media

A space-time discontinuous Galerkin finite element method is proposed and applied to a convection-dominant single-phase flow problem in porous media. The numerical scheme is based on a coupled space-time finite element discretization allowing for discontinuous approximations in space and in time. The continuities on the element interfaces are weakly enforced by the flux treatments, so that no extra penalty factor has to be determined. The resulting space-time formulation possesses the advantage of capturing the steep concentration front with sharp gradients efficiently. The stability and reliability of the proposed approach is demonstrated by numerical experiments. The author is grateful to the DFG (German Science Foundation—Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft) for the financial support under the grant number Di 430/4-2.     

Large wood potential,piece characteristics,and flood effects in Swiss mountain streams

We present results of two studies on the (1) potential wood load in steep headwater streams and (2) properties of large wood (LW) transported in mountain rivers during the large August 2005 flood event in Switzerland. Ten headwater reaches of 1000 m length were surveyed in different regions of Switzerland. The potential wood load was estimated for in-channel deadwood, and possible driving factors were explored. Correlations were found with dead wood volume on hillslopes and mean channel width. We established size distributions of LW pieces and identified probable recruitment processes. Four reaches were resurveyed after an exceptionally severe flood in August 2005, showing limited LW transport in channels but considerable wood input by mass wasting processes. In addition, characteristics of deposits of LW along mountain rivers affected by the 2005 flood were investigated. Diameter and length distribution of transported and deposited pieces were comparable to those of LW from steep headwater streams, yet with considerably fewer long pieces in the deposits of mountain rivers. Most LW pieces were fresh wood, indicating that the portion of in-channel deadwood transported during the 2005 flood was limited. Findings of the study contribute to a better understanding of LW dynamics in Alpine mountain streams.