THE FREE-WILSON PARADIGM REDUX:SIGNIFICANCE OF THE FREE-WILSON COEFFICIENTS,INSIGNIFICANCE OF COEFFICIENT ‘UNCERTAINTIES’ AND STATISTICAL SINS

The Free-Wilson paradigm is an established and powerful tool for quantitatively relating activity withchemical structure.Current implementations of the paradigm,however,are flawed both conceptually andin execution.As part of an attempt to more fully realize the promise of the paradigm,it was necessaryto examine these limitations in detail.This report introduces a robust,theory-founded Free-Wilson implementation:stepwise principalcomponents regression analysis(SPCRA).SPCRA is computationally superior to previousimplementations but does not in itself correct their conceptual flaws.The development of SPCRA did,however,facilitate derivation of a simple and chemically significantinterpretation of the Free-Wilson structure-activity model.A number of statistical aspects of this modelcommonly misused in previous applications are discussed at length.These discussions provide criticalbackground for the development of an alternative implementation of the Free-Wilson paradigm.     

The secondary spectral component of solar microwave bursts

Microwave observations in the range 1 to 18 GHz with high spectral resolution (40 frequencies) have shown that many events display a complex microwave spectrum. From a set of 14 events with two or more spectral components, we find that two different classes of complex events can be distinguished. The first group (4 events) is characterized by a different temporal evolution of the spectral components, resulting in a change of the spectral shape. These events probably can be explained by gyrosynchrotron emission from two or more individual sources. The second class (10 events) has a constant spectral shape, so that the two spectral components vary together in intensity. For all ten events in this second class, the ratio of primary to secondary peak frequencies is remarkably similar, exhibiting an average value of 3.4, and both components show a common circular polarization. These properties suggest either a common source for the different spectral components or several sources which are closely coupled. An additional example of this class of burst was observed interferometrically to provide spatial resolution. This event suggests that the primary and secondary components have a similar location, but that the surface area of the secondary component is larger.Swiss National Science Foundation Fellow from the University of Bern.     

NMR Measurements in Carbonate Rocks: Problems and an Approach to a Solution

Carbonate rocks are well known for their complex petrophysical behavior where, in contrast to siliciclastic rocks, different parameters, including porosity and permeability, usually are not directly related. This behavior is the result of thorough reorganization of porosity during diagenesis, and it turns prediction of reservoir quality of carbonate rocks into a challenge. The study presented here deals with the problem of utilizing NMR techniques in prediction of petrophysical properties in carbonates.We employ a visual porosity classification as a priori knowledge for better interpreting NMR data for prediction purposes. This allows for choice of suitable T₂ cutoff values to differentiate movable from bound fluids adapted for the specific carbonate rock, thus resulting in better interpretation of NMR data. The approach of using a genetic pore type classification for adapting the conventional method for T₂ cutoff determination, which originally was developed for siliciclastic rocks, is promising. Similarly, for permeability determination on the basis of NMR measurements, the classification of carbonate rocks based on porosity types also shows potential. The approach implemented here has the promise to provide a basis of standardized interpretation of NMR data from carbonate rocks.Acknowledgment We are grateful to Baker Hughes INTEQ, Celle, for permission to publish the results of this work. This study was part of I.S.s Masters Thesis at Hannover University that was carried out in collaboration with Baker Hughes INTEQ, Celle, Germany. We appreciate comments of an anonymous referee and PAGEOPH editor Brian J. Mitchell.     

Yaxcopoil-1 and the Chicxulub impact

CSDP core Yaxcopoil-1 was drilled to a depth of 1,511 m within the Chicxulub crater. An organic-rich marly limestone near the base of the hole (1,495 to 1,452 m) was deposited in an open marine shelf environment during the latest Cenomanian (uppermost Rotalipora cushmani zone). The overlying sequence of limestones, dolomites and anhydrites (1,495 to 894 m) indicates deposition in various carbonate platform environments (e.g., sabkhas, lagoons). A 100-m-thick suevite breccia (894–794 m) identifies the Chicxulub impact event. Above the suevite breccia is a dolomitic limestone with planktic foraminiferal assemblages indicative of Plummerita hantkeninoides zone CF1, which spans the last 300 ky of the Maastrichtian. An erosional surface 50 cm above the breccia/dolomite contact marks the K/T boundary and a hiatus. Limestones above this contact contain the first Tertiary planktic foraminifera indicative of an upper P. eugubina zone P1a(2) age. Another hiatus 7 cm upsection separates zone P1a(2) and hemipelagic limestones of planktic foraminiferal Zone P1c. Planktic foraminiferal assemblages of Zone Plc to P3b age are present from a depth of 794.04 up to 775 m. The Cretaceous carbonate sequence appears to be autochthonous, with a stratigraphic sequence comparable to late Cretaceous sediments known from outside the Chicxulub crater in northern and southern Yucatan, including the late Cenomanian organic-rich marly limestone. There is no evidence that these sediments represent crater infill due to megablocks sliding into the crater, such as major disruption of sediments, chaotic changes in lithology, overturned or deep dipping megablocks, major mechanical fragmentation, shock or thermal alteration, or ductile deformation. Breccia units that are intercalated in the carbonate platform sequence are intraformational in origin (e.g., dissolution of evaporites) and dykes are rare. Major disturbances of strata by the impact therefore appear to have been confined to within less than 60 km from the proposed impact center. Yaxcopoil-1 may be located outside the collapsed transient crater cavity, either on the upper end of an elevated and tilted horst of the terrace zone, or even outside the annular crater cavity. The Chicxulub site thus records a large impact that predates the K/T boundary impact and mass extinction.     

Environmental changes in northern New Zealand since the Middle Holocene inferred from stable isotope records (δ15N, δ13C) of Lake Pupuke

Maar lakes in the Auckland Volcanic Field are important high-resolution archives of Holocene environmental change in the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses were applied on bulk organic matter and the green alga Botryococcus from a sediment core from Lake Pupuke (Auckland, North Island, New Zealand) spanning the period since 7,165?cal.?year BP. The origin of organic matter was established using total-organic?Ccarbon-to-nitrogen ratios (TOC/TN) as well as organic carbon (??¹³C_OM) and nitrogen (??¹⁵N) isotope composition of potential modern sources. This approach demonstrated that the contribution of allochthonous organic matter to the lake sediment was negligible for most of the record. The sedimentary TOC/TN ratios that are higher than Redfield ratio (i.e. >7) are attributed to N-limiting conditions throughout the record. Variations of nitrogen and carbon isotopes during the last 7,165?years are interpreted as changes in the dominant processes in the lake. While epilimnetic primary productivity controlled isotope composition before 6,600?cal.?year BP, microbial processes, especially denitrification and methane oxidation, caused overall shifts of the ??¹⁵N and ??¹³C values since the Mid-Holocene. Comparisons with climate reconstructions from the Northern Island suggest that changes in the wind-induced lake overturn and a shift to more pronounced seasonality were the most likely causes for lake-internal changes since 6,600?cal.?year BP.     

Meteorologically consistent bias correction of climate time series for agricultural models

Conventional bias correction of simulated climate time series for impact models is done separately for climate variables and hence leads to inconsistencies between them. However, agricultural models mostly use several variables, and meteorological consistency is essential. The present work points out meteorological inconsistency due to quantile mapping and describes a new method of consistent bias correction by an optimization approach. Time series of hourly precipitation and global radiation from the regional model REMO5.7 (Run UBA C20/A1B_1) were corrected with site observations from the German Meteorological Service. The results urge to check conventionally corrected series for consistency before using them for multidimensional models. Here, quantile mapping resulted in underestimation of diffuse radiation at hours with precipitation. This deficit was minimized by the developed procedure.     

Preparing for climate change in Washington State

Climate change is expected to bring potentially significant changes to Washington State’s natural, institutional, cultural, and economic landscape. Addressing climate change impacts will require a sustained commitment to integrating climate information into the day-to-day governance and management of infrastructure, programs, and services that may be affected by climate change. This paper discusses fundamental concepts for planning for climate change and identifies options for adapting to the climate impacts evaluated in the Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment. Additionally, the paper highlights potential avenues for increasing flexibility in the policies and regulations used to govern human and natural systems in Washington.     

Internal variability in a regional climate model over West Africa

Sensitivity studies with regional climate models are often performed on the basis of a few simulations for which the difference is analysed and the statistical significance is often taken for granted. In this study we present some simple measures of the confidence limits for these types of experiments by analysing the internal variability of a regional climate model run over West Africa. Two 1-year long simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, are compared. The difference between the two runs gives a measure of the internal variability of the model and an indication of which timescales are reliable for analysis. The results are analysed for a range of timescales and spatial scales, and quantitative measures of the confidence limits for regional model simulations are diagnosed for a selection of study areas for rainfall, low level temperature and wind. As the averaging period or spatial scale is increased, the signal due to internal variability gets smaller and confidence in the simulations increases. This occurs more rapidly for variations in precipitation, which appear essentially random, than for dynamical variables, which show some organisation on larger scales.     

Preface: Workshop on matter,astrophysics, gravitation,ions and cosmology—MAGIC23

We outline our experience in organizing the first edition of the Workshop on Matter, Astrophysics, Gravitation, Ions and Cosmology, held in virtual and in-person format, denominated MAGIC23, held from 6 to 10 March, 2023, in Praia do Rosa, Santa Catarina, Brazil. The event aimed to bring together leading academic scientists, professors, students, and research scholars for exchanging experiences and discuss the most recent innovations, trends, practical challenges, and experimental and theoretical solutions adopted in the investigation fields within the scope of the meeting. The workshop offered to the participants a platform for scientific and academic projects, partnerships, and presentation of high-quality research contributions describing original and unpublished results on topics related to matter, astrophysics, gravitation, ions, and cosmology.     

New brown dwarf candidates in the Pleiades

We have performed deep, wide‐field imaging on a ∼0.4 deg² field in the Pleiades (Melotte 22). The selected field was not yet target of a deep search for low mass stars and brown dwarfs. Our limiting magnitudes are R ∼ 22 mag and I ∼ 20 mag, sufficient to detect brown dwarf candidates down to 40 M_J. We found 197 objects, whose location in the (I, R – I) color magnitude diagram is consistent with the age and the distance of the Pleiades. Using CTK R and I as well as JHK photometry from our data and the 2MASS survey we were able to identify 7 new brown dwarf candidates. We present our data reduction technique, which enables us to resample, calibrate, and co‐add many images by just two steps. We estimate the interstellar extinction and the spectral type from our optical and the NIR data using a two‐dimensional χ² fitting (© 2009 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)