Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo,Egypt

The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m _b  = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is “what if this earthquake is repeated today.” In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that “the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times” in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety and collapse prevention in future earthquakes, a five-step road map has been purposed.     

Dipole tilt controls bow shock location and flaring angle

The dipole tilt angle has been found to affect Earth’s bow shock. This work presents a quantitative relationship between the dipole tilt angle and the bow shock location and flaring angle. We collected a large data set of bow shock crossings from four different satellites (IMP 8, Geotail, Magion 4, and Cluster), including some recent crossings obtained during 2012–2013. The results from a statistical analysis demonstrate that: (1) the subsolar standoff distance increases but the flaring angle decreases with increasing dipole tilt angle; (2) when the dipole tilt angle changes sign from negative to positive, the dayside bow shock moves toward Earth and the shift can be as much as 2.29 R _E, during which the flaring angle increases; and (3) the shape of bow shock in the northern and southern hemispheres differs. For the northern hemisphere bow shock, with increasing positive/negative dipole tilt angle, the flaring angle increases/decreases. While for the southern hemisphere, the trend is the opposite; with increasing positive/negative dipole tilt angle, the flaring angle decreases/increases. These results are helpful for future bow shock modeling that needs to include the effects of dipole tilt angle.     

Semi-supervised least squares support vector machine algorithm: application to offshore oil reservoir

At the early stages of deep-water oil exploration and development, fewer and further apart wells are drilled than in onshore oilfields. Supervised least squares support vector machine algorithms are used to predict the reservoir parameters but the prediction accuracy is low. We combined the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) algorithm with semi-supervised learning and established a semi-supervised regression model, which we call the semi-supervised least squares support vector machine (SLSSVM) model. The iterative matrix inversion is also introduced to improve the training ability and training time of the model. We use the UCI data to test the generalization of a semi-supervised and a supervised LSSVM models. The test results suggest that the generalization performance of the LSSVM model greatly improves and with decreasing training samples the generalization performance is better. Moreover, for small-sample models, the SLSSVM method has higher precision than the semi-supervised K-nearest neighbor (SKNN) method. The new semisupervised LSSVM algorithm was used to predict the distribution of porosity and sandstone in the Jingzhou study area.     

Distinguishing volcanic debris avalanche deposits from their reworked products: the Perrier sequence (French Massif Central)

Debris avalanches associated with volcanic sector collapse are usually high-volume high-mobility phenomena. Debris avalanche deposit remobilisation by cohesive debris flows and landslides is common, so they can share textural characteristics such as hummocks and jigsaw cracks. Distinguishing original deposits from reworked products is critical for geological understanding and hazard assessment because of their different origin, frequency and environmental impact. We present a methodology based on field evidence to differentiate such epiclastic breccias. Basal contact mapping constrained by accurate altitude and location data allows the reconstruction of deposit stratigraphy and geometry. Lithological analysis helps to distinguish the different units. Incorporation structures, kinematic indicators and component mingling textures are used to characterise erosion and transport mechanisms. We apply this method to the enigmatic sequence at Perrier (French Massif Central), where four units (U1–U4) have been interpreted either as debris flow or debris avalanche deposits. The sequence results from activity on the Monts Dore Volcano about 2 Ma ago. The epiclastic units are matrix supported with an almost flat top. U2 and U3 have clear debris flow deposit affinities such as rounded clasts and intact blocks (no jigsaw cracks). U1 and U4 have jigsaw cracked blocks with matrix injection and stretched sediment blocks. U1 lacks large blocks (>10 m wide) and has a homogenous matrix with an upward increase of trapped air vesicle content and size. This unit is interpreted as a cohesive debris flow deposit spawned from a debris avalanche upstream. In contrast, U4 has large mega-blocks (up to 40 m wide), sharp contacts between mixed facies zones with different colours and numerous jigsaw fit blocks (open jigsaw cracks filled by monogenic intra-clast matrix). Mega-blocks are concentrated near the deposit base and are spatially associated with major substratum erosion. This deposit has a debris avalanche distal facies with local debris flow affinities due to partial water saturation. We also identify two landslide deposits (L1 and L2) resulting from recent reworking that has produced a similar facies to U1 and U4. These are distinguishable from the original deposits, as they contain blocks of mixed U1/U4 facies, a distinctly less consolidated and more porous matrix and a fresh hummocky topography. This work shows how to differentiate epiclastic deposits with similar characteristics, but different origins. In doing so, we improve understanding of present and past instability of the Monts Dore and identify present landslide hazards at Perrier.     

Evapotranspiration from citrus trees growing in sandy soil under drip irrigation with saline water

An experiment on evapotranspiration from citrus trees under irrigation with saline water was carried out for 4 months. Two lysimeters planted with a citrus tree in the green house were used. One lysimeter was irrigated with saline water (NaCl and CaCl₂ of 2000 mg/L equivalence,EC = 3.8 dS/m, SAR = 5.9) and the other was irrigated with freshwater using drip irrigation. The applied irrigation water was 1.2 times that of the evapotranspiration on the previous day. Evapotranspiration was calculated as the change in lysimeter weight recorded every 30 minutes. The lysimeters were filled with soil with 95.8% sand. The results of the experiment were as follows. (i) The evapotranspiration from citrus tree was reduced after irrigation with saline water. The evapotranspiration returns to normal after leaching. However it takes months to exhaust the salt from the tree. (ii) To estimate the impact of irrigation with saline water on the evapotranspiration from citrus trees, the reduction coefficient due to salt stress (K_s) was used in this experiment. Evapotranspiration under irrigation with saline water (ET _s ) can be calculated from evapotranspiration under irrigation with freshwater (ET) by the equationET _s =K _s × ET. K_s can be expressed as a function ofEC _sw . (iii) The critical soil-water electrical conductivity (EC _sw ) is 9.5 dS/m, beyond which adverse effects on evapotranspiration begin to appear. IfEC _sw can be controlled at below 9.5 dS/m, saline water can be safely used for irrigation.     

A first arrival detection method for low SNR microseismic signal

Most of the microseismic signals have low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) due to the strong background noise, which makes it difficult to locate the first arrival time. Both accuracy and stability of conventional methods are poor in this situation. To overcome this problem, here we proposed a new method based on the adaptive Morlet wavelet and principal component analysis process in wavelet coefficients matrix. The three components of microseismic signal make it possible to extract the features in wavelet coefficients domain. Then the reconstructed signal from weighted features presents an obvious first arrival. Tests on synthetic signals and real data provide a solid evidence for its feasibility in low SNR microseismic signal.     

Tomographic inversion of near-surface <Emphasis Type="Italic">Q</Emphasis> factor by combining surface and cross-hole seismic surveys

The estimation of the quality factor Q plays a fundamental role in enhancing seismic resolution via absorption compensation in the near-surface layer. We present a new geometry that can be used to acquire field data by combining surface and cross-hole surveys to decrease the effect of geophone coupling on Q estimation. In this study, we drilled number of receiver holes around the source hole, each hole has different depth and each geophone is placed geophones into the bottom of each receiver hole to avoid the effect of geophone coupling with the borehole wall on Q estimation in conventional cross-hole seismic surveys. We also propose a novel tomographic inversion of the Q factor without the effect of the source signature, and examine its stability and reliability using synthetic data. We estimate the Q factors of the near-surface layer in two different frequency bands using field data acquired in the Dagang Oilfield. The results show that seismic absorption in the near-surface layer is much greater than that in the subsurface strata. Thus, it is of critical practical importance to enhance the seismic solution by compensating for near-surface absorption. In addition, we derive different Q factors from two frequency bands, which can be treated, to some extent, as evidence of a frequency-dependent Q.     

Types and nature of fracture associated with Late Ordovician paleochannels of glaciofluvial Sarah Formation,Qasim region,Central Saudi Arabia

This study evaluates the Late Ordovician glaciofluvial deposits of the Sarah Formation and equivalent outcroppings in north, central, and southwestern Saudi Arabia. The Sarah Formation also covers a wide area in the subsurface and is considered as an important target for unconventional tight gas reservoir. Defining the fracture types, nature, and distribution in outcrop scale might help to establish a successful fracture simulation model and behavior for the Sarah tight gas reservoir in the subsurface. This study investigates fracture characteristics for the Sarah Formation at Sarah paleochannel outcrops. The study revealed three sets of fractures, which have EW, NS, and SE-NW directions, and these fractures vary from open, resistive, and filled to resistive fractures. The closed fractures are filled with ferruginated iron oxides and gypsum. The filled fractures (the thrust boundary) are found in the study area at the SE-NW strike fracture set, while open and resistive fractures are found mainly at S-N and E-W fracture sets, respectively. The syn-depositional filled fractures (iron oxides) are considered as the younger fracture sets while the open and resistive fractures are post-depositional fractures which may have resulted from uplift or tectonic movement. A general model representing the fracture pattern and the thrusting boundaries due to glacial movement was constructed. It has been noticed that the systematic occurrence of filled fractures (thrust boundaries) described the boundaries between different glacial events, which act as a fluid barrier (filled fractures) and decrease the reservoir quality. The finding of this study might be utilized as a guide and lead for exploration in the subsurface Sarah glacial deposits. It will also help to understand and speculate the nature pattern and distribution of fractures with the Sarah Formation.     

Geophysical Signature of the Shallow Water Flow in the Deepwater Basin of the Northern South China Sea

Shallow water flow (SWF), a disastrous geohazard in the continental margin, has threatened deepwater drilling operations. Under overpressure conditions, continual flow delivering unconsolidated sands upward in the shallow layer below the seafloor may cause large and long-lasting uncontrolled flows; these flows may lead to control problems and cause well damage and foundation failure. Eruptions from over-pressured sands may result in seafloor craters, mounds, and cracks. Detailed studies of 2D/3D seismic data from a slope basin of the South China Sea (SCS) indicated the potential presence of SWF. It is commonly characterized by lower elastic impedance, a higher Vp/Vs ratio, and a higher Poisson’s ratio than that for the surrounding sediments. Analysis of geological data indicated the SWF zone originated from a deepwater channel system with gas bearing over-pressured fluid flow and a high sedimentation rate. We proposed a fluid flow model for SWF that clearly identifies its stress and pressure changes. The rupture of previous SWF zones caused the fluid flow that occurred in the Baiyun Sag of the northern SCS.     

阿克苏河流域气候变化对潜在蒸散量影响评价(英文)

Evapotranspiration is one of the key components of hydrological processes. Assessing the impact of climate factors on evapotranspiration is helpful in understanding the impact of climate change on hydrological processes. In this paper, based on the daily meteorological data from 1960 to 2007 within and around the Aksu River Basin, reference evapotranspiration (RET) was estimated with the FAO Penman-Monteith method. The temporal and spatial variations of RET were analyzed by using ARCGIS and Mann-Kendall method. Multiple Regression Analysis was employed to attribute the effects of the variations of air temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity, vapour pressure and wind speed on RET. The results showed that average annual RET in the eastern plain area of the Aksu River Basin was about 1100 mm, which was nearly twice as much as that in the western mountainous area. The trend of annual RET had significant spatial variability. Annual RET was reduced significantly in the southeastern oasis area and southwestern plain area and increased slightly in the mountain areas. The amplitude of the change of RET reached the highest in summer, contributing most of the annual change of RET. Except in some high elevation areas where relative humidity predominated the change of the RET, the variations of wind velocity predominated the changes of RET almost throughout the basin. Taking Kuqa and Ulugqat stations as an example, the variations of wind velocity accounted for more than 50% of the changes of RET.