Prediction of the spatial distribution of the modified mercalli intensity using neural networks

This paper presents the development of an adaptive, non-parametric forecast model for the direct prediction of the spatial distribution of the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) corresponding to an earthquake scenario. The model is based on recent advances in neural networks computation, and is constructed through supervised learning using historical earthquake and regional geological data as training sets. A MMI forecast model for moderate earthquakes with magnitudes between 6 and 7 was developed based on data from the Loma Prieta, Coalinga and Morgan Hill earthquakes. For these data sets, the neural networks forecast model is shown to have excellent data synthesis capability; multiple sets of data can be encapsulated by a relatively simple network architecture. Limited comparison of forecasts made by the neural networks model and conventional models demonstrates that improved accuracy can be achieved. Implementation and operational advantages of the neural networks approach such as general input features, minimum preconceived knowledge of the data sets, the ability to learn and to adapt incrementally and the autonomous and automatic synthesis of the structure underlying the data sets, have been illustrated.     

Sediment transport trends and cross-sectional stability of a lagoonal tidal inlet on the Central Coast of Vietnam

Lagoonal tidal inlets are a typical morphology of the Central Coast of Vietnam. Recently, navigation channels in these inlets have become increasingly threatened by siltation. This study analyses the relations between sediment distribution and transport trends (using the technique of Sediment Trend Analysis-STA■) in the lagoonal system of the De Gi inlet and then proposes appropriate countermeasures against sand deposition in the navigation channel. The STA identified three types of transport trends in the De Gi inlet, namely dynamic equilibrium, net accretion, and net erosion. Processes associated with the tidal prism have resulted in trends of sediment transport and deposition across the flood and ebb tidal shoals, which maintain a present cross-sectional area of about 1000m^2. However, longshore sediment transport from north to south resulting from northeast waves cause additional sand deposition in the channel. In addition, the effects of refraction associated with a nearby headland and jetty also increase sedimentation. These processes provide the main reasons for sediment deposition in the De Gi inlet. Short term and regular dredging helps to maintain the navigation channel. A system comprised of three jetties (north, south, and weir) is necessary to ensure the longterm cross-sectional stability of the navigation channel.     

Stochastic competitive analysis of hydropower and water supplies within an energy–water nexus

Energy and water are scarce resources and understanding the complicated energy–water nexus is an important issue for effective resource management. The purpose of this research was to analyze the competitive and cooperative relationships involving energy and water production and use. Specifically, tradeoff and integrated management of hydropower generation and water supplies are analyzed for energy–water systems. A Nash–Cournot model was established to analyze strategic behaviors among participants in energy–water systems. In the model, tradeoff analysis and integrated management of hydropower and water supplies were simulated for a reservoir system. In addition, hydropower and thermal power generation in competitive energy markets was examined. A case study of Dajia River reservoirs in the Tai-Chung and Chang-Hwa energy–water systems is presented. Dajia River is the second longest river in central Taiwan; the reservoirs system of Dajia River generates hydropower with installed capacity of 1150 MW. Strategic competitive and cooperative behaviors regarding energy–water linkage were quantified in the results. The results show that integrated management of hydropower and water supplies can increase renewable energy production, lower electricity equilibrium price, and decrease carbon dioxide emission.     

Downstream changes in antimony and arsenic speciation in sediments at a mesothermal gold deposit in British Columbia,Canada

This study investigates Sb speciation in sediments along the drainage of the Upper Peter adit at the Bralorne Au mine in southern British Columbia, Canada, and compares the behavior of Sb with that of As. The Upper Peter mineralization consists of native Au in quartz-carbonate veins with 1 wt.% sulfides dominated by pyrite and arsenopyrite although stibnite, the primary Sb-bearing sulfide mineral, can be locally significant. Dissolved Sb concentrations can reach up to 349 μg L⁻¹ in the mine pool. Sediments were collected for detailed geochemical and mineralogical characterization at locations along the 350-m flow path, which includes a 100-m shallow channel within the adit, a sediment settling pond about 45 m beyond the adit portal and an open wetland another 120 m farther downstream. From the mine pool to the wetland outlet, dissolved Sb in the drainage drops from 199 μg L⁻¹ to below the detection limit due to the combined effect of dilution and removal from solution. Speciation analyses using X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy indicate that Sb(III)–S accounts for around 70% of total Sb in the sediments in the main pool at the far end of the adit. At a short distance (24 m) downstream of the main adit pool, however, Sb(III)–O and Sb(V)–O species represent ?50% of total Sb in the bulk sediments, indicating significant oxidation of the primary sulfides inside the adit. Although Sb appears largely oxidized in the bulk samples collected near the portal, Sb(III)–S species are nevertheless present in the <53-μm fraction, suggesting a higher oxidation rate for stibnite in the coarser grains, possibly due to galvanic interaction with pyrite. Secondary Sb species released from the sulfide oxidation are most likely sorbed/co-precipitated with Fe-, Mn-, and Al-oxyhydroxides along the flow channel in the adit and in the sediment settling pond, with the Fe phase being the dominant sink for Sb.     

Hydrodynamic forces on submerged vertical circular cylindrical tanks under ground excitation

This paper investigates hydrodynamic pressures and forces on submerged vertical cylindrical tanks under the action of harmonic ground excitations. Water is assumed to be imcompressible and inviscid, motion irrotational and waves are of small amplitude. Semi-analytical method is used for the solution, that is, the fluid domain is divided into inner and outer regions. The Laplace equations governing velocity potentials for the two regions are solved by separation of variables and expressed in terms of eigenfunctions of the resulting equations which satisfy appropriate boundary conditions. Continuity of pressure and velocity at the interface of the inner and outer regions provides the necessary equations from which the velocity potentials, pressures and forces are obtained. Numerical results are presented in graphical form for forces and pressures for a range of excitation frequencies for selected proportions of tank geometry and water depth.     

Refining the origin of thermal water using stable isotope,hydrochemistry and GIS approaches in Jiaoxi,Taiwan

Comprehending the recharge of thermal springs is crucial for preserving the water quality of such springs. However, limited groundwater well data in mountainous areas presents a challenge to determining thermal-spring recharge areas. This study analyzes the isotopes (δ²H and δ¹⁸O) and major ions in rainwater, streamwater, mountain groundwater and thermal spring water in Jiaoxi, located near Taiwan's largest city, Taipei. The results of the isotope-elevation relationship and GIS recharge analysis indicate that the thermal spring water originated from a remote mountain at elevations of approximately 1170–1480 m, rather than the upstream watershed. The thermal spring water was divided into two groups based on the carbonate saturation index (SI) and isotope composition: the foothill group, which had a positive SI and lower δ value, and the downstream group, which had a negative SI and higher δ value. This study improved the conceptual model of the thermal flow path by demonstrating that the recharge of thermal water is a transboundary regional flow and that the foothill thermal water does not mix with the meteoric water. The revised model also highlights the role of structural lineament trends (faults, fractures and folds) in the movement of regional flow in fractured mountain blocks.     

One-phase-low-pH enzyme induced carbonate precipitation (EICP) method for soil improvement

Enzyme induced carbonate precipitation (EICP) is an emerging soil improvement method using free urease enzyme for urea hydrolysis. This method has advantages over the commonly used microbially induced carbonate precipitation (MICP) process as it does not involve issues related to bio-safety. However, in terms of efficiency of calcium carbonate production, EICP is considered lower than that of MICP. In this paper, a high efficiency EICP method is proposed. The key of this new method is to adopt a one-phase injection of low pH solution strategy. In this so-called one-phase-low-pH method, EICP solution consisting of a mixture of urease solution of pH?=?6.5, urea and calcium chloride is injected into soil. The test results have shown that the one-phase-low-pH method can improve significantly the calcium conversion efficiency and the uniformity of calcium carbonate distribution in the sand samples as compared with the conventional two-phase EICP method. Furthermore, the unconfined compressive strength of sand treated using the one-phase-low-pH method is much higher than that using the two-phase method and the one-phase-low-pH method is also simpler and more efficient as it involves less number of injections.

     

An integrated optimization algorithm for parameter structure identification in groundwater modeling

The inverse problem of parameter structure identification in a distributed parameter system remains challenging. Identifying a more complex parameter structure requires more data. There is also the problem of over-parameterization. In this study, we propose a modified Tabu search for parameter structure identification. We embed an adjoint state procedure in the search process to improve the efficiency of the Tabu search. We use Voronoi tessellation for automatic parameterization to reduce the dimension of the distributed parameter. Additionally, a coarse-fine grid technique is applied to further improve the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed methodology. To avoid over-parameterization, at each level of parameter complexity we calculate the residual error for parameter fitting, the parameter uncertainty error and a modified Akaike Information Criterion. To demonstrate the proposed methodology, we conduct numerical experiments with synthetic data that simulate both discrete hydraulic conductivity zones and a continuous hydraulic conductivity distribution. Our results indicate that the Tabu search allied with the adjoint state method significantly improves computational efficiency and effectiveness in solving the inverse problem of parameter structure identification.     

Reliability analysis of hydraulic structures considering unit hydrograph uncertainty

Unit hydrographs (UHs), along with design rainfalls, are frequently used to determine the discharge hydrograph for design and evaluation of hydraulic structures. Due to the presence of various uncertainties in its derivation, the resulting UH is inevitably subject to uncertainty. Consequently, the performance of hydraulic structures under the design storm condition is uncertain. This paper integrates the linearly constrained Monte-Carlo simulation with the UH theory and routing techniques to evaluate the reliability of hydraulic structures. The linear constraint is considered because the water volume of each generated design direct runoff hydrograph should be equal to that of the design effective rainfall hyetograph or the water volume of each generated UH must be equal to one inch (or cm) over the watershed. For illustration, the proposed methodology is applied to evaluate the overtopping risk of a hypothetical flood detention reservoir downstream of Tong-Tou watershed in Taiwan.