Stochastic generation of hourly rainstorm events

Occurrence of rainstorm events can be characterized by the number of events, storm duration, rainfall depth, inter-event time and temporal variation of rainfall within a rainstorm event. This paper presents a Monte-Carlo based stochastic hourly rainfall generation model considering correlated non-normal random rainstorm characteristics, as well as dependence of various rainstorm patterns on rainfall depth, duration, and season. The proposed model was verified by comparing the derived rainfall depth–duration–frequency relations from the simulated rainfall sequences with those from observed annual maximum rainfalls based on the hourly rainfall data at the Hong Kong Observatory over the period of 1884–1990. Through numerical experiments, the proposed model was found to be capable of capturing the essential statistical features of rainstorm characteristics and those of annual extreme rainstorm events according to the available data.     

Efficient methods of discharge measurements in rivers and streams based on the probability concept

Regularities exist in fluid flows and can be represented by a set of constants. These constants are functions of the parameter of a probability distribution that exhibits resilience and stability under various flow conditions. Together, these regularities form a network and interact with each other, such that if one is known then the others can be determined from it. The regularities and their network explain the various fluid‐flow phenomena and can be used in analysis of rivers and streams. For example, they can be used as the basis to develop simple and efficient methods of discharge measurements as presented herein, which only require velocity sampling at a single point on a water surface or a few points on a single vertical. Because of their simplicity and the short time requirement, these methods can be easily automated for collecting discharge data in unsteady, high flows that are badly needed for real‐time flow forecasting and design of flood control structures, and for advancing the fundamental, scientific knowledge in hydrology. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Models of rapidly rotating neutron stars: remnants of accretion-induced collapse

Equilibrium models of differentially rotating nascent neutron stars are constructed, which represent the result of the accretion-induced collapse of rapidly rotating white dwarfs. The models are built in a two-step procedure: (1) a rapidly rotating pre-collapse white dwarf model is constructed; (2) a stationary axisymmetric neutron star having the same total mass and angular momentum distribution as the white dwarf is constructed. The resulting collapsed objects consist of a high-density central core of size roughly 20 km, surrounded by a massive accretion torus extending over 1000 km from the rotation axis. The ratio of the rotational kinetic energy to the gravitational potential energy of these neutron stars ranges from 0.13 to 0.26, suggesting that some of these objects may have a non-axisymmetric dynamical instability that could emit a significant amount of gravitational radiation.     

Observed and simulated sea breeze characteristics over Rayong coastal area, Thailand

This work presents the detailed characterization of sea breeze (SB) over the Rayong coastal area, one of the most rapidly developed and highly industrialized areas during the last decade in Thailand, using observation data analysis and fine-resolution (2?km) mesoscale meteorological modeling with incorporation of new land cover and satellite-derived vegetation fraction data sets. The key characteristics considered include frequency of SB occurrence, sea-breeze day (SBD) identification, degree of inland penetration, and boundary layer development. It was found that SBs occur frequently in the winter due mainly to relatively large land–sea temperature contrasts and minimally in the wet season. Monthly mean SB onset and cessation times are at around 12–15 local time (LT) and 18–21 LT, respectively, and its strength peaks during the early- to mid-afternoon. Monthly SB hodographs generally exhibit clockwise rotations, and SB inland penetration (at PCD-T tower) ranges widely with the monthly means of 25–55?km from the coast. Mesoscale MM5 modeling was performed on two selected SBDs (13 January and 16 March 2006), on which the SBs are under weak and onshore strong influences from background winds, respectively. Simulated near-surface winds and temperature were found to be in fair-to-acceptable agreement with the observations. The SB circulation along the Rayong coast is clearly defined with a return flow aloft and a front on 13 January, while it is enhanced by the onshore background winds on 16 March. Another SB along the Chonburi coast also develops separately, but their fronts merge into one in the mid-afternoon, resulting in large area coverage by the SB. Simulated planetary boundary layer height over the land area is significantly affected by a thermal internal boundary layer (TIBL) induced by an SB, which is found to be low near the coast and increases toward the front (up to 800–1,000?m along the Rayong coast).     

A framework for the evaluation of ground motion selection and modification procedures

This study develops a framework to evaluate ground motion selection and modification (GMSM) procedures. The context is probabilistic seismic demand analysis, where response history analyses of a given structure, using ground motions determined by a GMSM procedure, are performed in order to estimate the seismic demand hazard curve (SDHC) for the structure at a given site. Currently, a GMSM procedure is evaluated in this context by comparing several resulting estimates of the SDHC, each derived from a different definition of the conditioning intensity measure (IM). Using a simple case study, we demonstrate that conclusions from such an approach are not always definitive; therefore, an alternative approach is desirable. In the alternative proposed herein, all estimates of the SDHC from GMSM procedures are compared against a benchmark SDHC, under a common set of ground motion information. This benchmark SDHC is determined by incorporating a prediction model for the seismic demand into the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis calculations. To develop an understanding of why one GMSM procedure may provide more accurate estimates of the SDHC than another procedure, we identify the role of ‘IM sufficiency’ in the relationship between (i) bias in the SDHC estimate and (ii) ‘hazard consistency’ of the corresponding ground motions obtained from a GMSM procedure. Finally, we provide examples of how misleading conclusions may potentially be obtained from erroneous implementations of the proposed framework. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

泾阳南塬黄土滑坡类型与发育特征

1976年泾阳南塬大面积提水灌溉以来,沿泾河右岸发育27处,50余起黄土层内滑坡,造成严重的经济损失和人员伤亡,使得台塬面积不断缩小,水土流失加剧.通过对南塬黄土滑坡多次野外考察和滑坡测量,研究了泾阳南塬黄土滑坡类型与发育特征.依据滑坡发生力学机制对南塬黄土滑坡进行了分类,包括黄土流滑、黄土滑动和黄土崩塌.南塬黄土滑坡具有高陡的后壁,后缘裂缝普遍发育,具有演化性与群体性分布特征.其中裂缝发育及高陡的滑坡后壁是造成滑坡演化的重要因素.裂缝的发育还是滑坡群体性分布的内在动力机制.      

Evaluation of the exact conditional spectrum and generalized conditional intensity measure methods for ground motion selection

Two existing, contemporary ground motion selection and modification procedures – (i) exact conditional spectrum (CS‐exact) and (ii) generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM) – are evaluated in their ability to accurately estimate seismic demand hazard curves (SDHCs) of a given structure at a specified site. The amount of effort involved in implementing these procedures to compute a single SDHC is studied, and a case study is chosen where rigorous benchmark SDHCs can be determined for evaluation purposes. By comparing estimates from ground motion selection and modification procedures with the benchmark, we conclude that estimates from CS‐exact are unbiased in many of the cases considered. The estimates from GCIM are even more accurate, as they are unbiased for most – but not all – of the cases where estimates from CS‐exact are biased. We find that it is possible to obtain biased SDHCs from GCIM, even after employing a very diverse collection of intensity measures to select ground motions and implementing its bias‐checking feature, because it is usually difficult to identify intensity measures that are truly ‘sufficient’ for the response of a complex, multi‐degree‐of‐freedom system. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Land use and land cover change detection with Landsat MSS and SPOT HRV data in Hong Kong

The objective of this paper is to map urban expansion in Hong Kong from 1979 to 1987 with a Landsat MSS and a SPOT HRV data. The data were radiometrically calibrated and geometrically registered. Three change detection techniques were applied. First, image overlay was used to enhance change areas visually. Second, a standardized principal components analysis was performed to yield minor components which were change related vectors. A thresholding technique was employed to separate the areas of changes from those of no-change. A binary change mask was created. Third, a post-classification comparison was merged with the change mask to identify the nature of specific land use and land cover changes. Major land development in the city can be easily detected and mapped with these techniques.     

Risk analysis for flood-control structure under consideration of uncertainties in design flood

This study presents a risk analysis model to evaluate the failure risk for the flood-control structures in the Keelung River due to the uncertainties in the hydrological and hydraulic analysis, including hydrologic, hydraulic, and geomorphologic uncertainty factors. This study defines failure risk as the overtopping probability of the maximum water level exceeding the levee crown, and the proposed risk analysis model integrates with the advanced first-order and second-moment (AFOSM) method to calculate the overtopping probability of levee system. The proposed model is used to evaluate the effects of the freeboard and flood-diversion channel on the flood-control ability of the levees in the Keelung River, which were designed based on the 3-day, 200-year design rainfall event. The numerical experiments indicate that the hydrologic uncertainty factors have more effect on the estimated maximum water level than hydraulic and geomorphologic uncertainty factors. In addition, the freeboard and the flood-diversion channel can effectively reduce the overtopping probability so as to significantly enhance the flood-control capacity of the levee system in the Keelung River. Eventually, the proposed risk analysis successfully quantifies the overtopping risk of the levee system under a scenario, the increase in the average 200-year rainfall amount due to climate change, and the results could be useful when planning to upgrade the existing levee system.     

Dam overtopping risk assessment considering inspection program

Safety inspection of large dams in Taiwan is conducted every 5 years. The practice does not take into consideration uncertainty of dam conditions. The goal of this study is to determine the optimal dam inspection interval under the consideration of overtopping risk incorporating uncertainty gate availability. In earlier studies, assessment of overtopping risk only considered the uncertainties in reservoir properties and natural randomness of hydrologic events without giving much thought to the availability of spillway gates. As a result, the overtopping risk could be underestimated. In this study, an innovative concept is proposed to evaluate dam overtopping by taking into account spillway gate availability. The framework consists of three parts: (1) evaluation of conditional overtopping risk for different numbers of malfunctioning spillway gates; (2) evaluation of spillway gate availability; and (3) dam inspection scheduling. Furthermore, considerations are given to overtopping risk, inspection cost, and dam break cost for determining the optimal inspection schedule. The methodology is applied to the Shihmen Reservoir in Taiwan and to evaluate its time-dependent overtopping risk. Results show that overtopping risk considering the availability of the spillway gates is higher than the one without considering the availability of the spillway gates.