A methodology for estimating business interruption loss caused by flood disasters: insights from business surveys after Tokai Heavy Rain in Japan

This study proposes a probabilistic methodology for estimating the business interruption loss of industrial sectors as an extension of current methodology. The functional forms and parameters are selected and calibrated based on survey data obtained from businesses located in the inundated area at the time of the 2000 Tokai Heavy Rain in Japan. The Tokai Heavy Rain was a rare event that hit a densely populated and industrialized area. In the estimation of business interruption losses, functional fragility curves and accelerated failure time models are selected to estimate the extent of damage to production capacity and production recovery time. Significant explanatory variables, such as inundation depth, distinct vulnerability, and the resilience characteristics of each sector, as well as the accuracy of fit of the model, are analyzed in the study. The function obtained and the estimated parameters can be utilized as benchmarks in estimating the probabilistic distribution of business interruption losses, especially in the case of urban flood disasters.

     

Space-continuous measurements on ocean current and chemicalproperties with the intelligent towed vehicle “Flying Fish”

A research project to develop observation systems for heat, momentum, and material circulation in the ocean and atmosphere was carried out from 1992 to 1997. A pitch, roll, and depth controllable towed vehicle called “Flying Fish” was developed which houses an acoustic Doppler current profiler, CO₂ analyzer, and sensors for measuring temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, pH, turbidity, and chlorophyll. The length of the vehicle is 3.84 m, the breadth is 2.26 m, the height is 1.4 m, the weight in air is 1400 kg, and the weight in water is roughly 0 kg. Flying Fish enables us to obtain space-continuous data of physical and chemical properties efficiently in the upper mixed layer of the ocean, From 1994 to 1997, the vehicle was used for observations in the northern, southern, and central parts of the Japan Sea in a collaborative study by Japan, Korea, and Russia. Examples of data obtained are shown in this paper and the results of current velocities are compared with those taken by other observation systems     

A gravity survey on Volcano Huzi,Japan by means of a Worden gravimeter

Summary Observations and reductions of the gravimeter survey on Volcano Huzi are fully described. The survey was accompanied by various inevitable difficulties but the accuracy of calculating the Bouguer anomalies is kept high enough to bear volcanological discussion. The results are rather suggestive to the theory of caldera-formation. Comparison with the gravity anomaly on the volcanic islands in the middle of the ocean is also made.     

Role of Time-Delay Concept in Understanding Mechanism of Total Solar Irradiance Variation and its Effect on the Climate of the Earth

A time-delay concept is described to play a vital role in a hypothesis of the mechanism of the solar total irradiance variation driven by time variation of the thermal structure of the solar convection zone, with time scales on the order of 10 to 10000 years. The hypothesis is formulated on an empirical basis from an analysis of the observed data of the magnetic field of the Sun and of the global land-air temperature anomalies of the Earth, with the assumption that the land area of the Earth can be a good recorder of the solar total irradiance variation in the past. As a result of the assumption within the context of the present hypothesis, it was found that the solar total irradiance increase and the global warming of the Earth from the early 20th century to the present time could be caused by release of heat stored in the solar convection zone in the Maunder Minimum of the 17th century.     

High-Speed Data Acquisition System Messia for Subaru

We have developed a high-speed data acquisition system, Messia-III (Modularized Extensible SyStem for Image Acquisition) for Subaru, Japanese 8.2m telescope. Messia has a direct 1-Gbps link to a host UNIX workstation. Messia is a VMEbus-based system but it does not have local OS nor CPU's in order to minimize software development and maintenance.     

The 10-year time delay of the solar cycle luminosity modulation of the Sun behind the solar cycle magnetic oscillation

We found an evidence that the solar cycle luminosity modulation of the Sun deduced from the total irradiance modulation which was measured by the Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) experiment on board of Nimbus 7 from November 16, 1978 to December 13, 1993 was not in phase with the solar cycle magnetic oscillation when we used the sunspot relative number as its index. The modulation was delayed in time behind the solar cycle magnetic oscillation by an amount of about 10.3 years on the order of length of one solar cycle. In order to quantitatively evaluate the correlation between the two quantities, we devised a method to extract characteristics which were proper to a particular solar cycle by defining a new index of the correlation called multiplied correlation index (MCI). We found that the characteristics of the ERB data time profile between solar cycles 21 and 22 were more similar to those of the solar cycle magnetic oscillation between solar cycles 20 and 21 than those between solar cycles 21 and 22 and thus the time profile of the luminosity modulation from the maximum phase of solar cycle 21 to the declining phase of the solar cycle 22 corresponded to the solar cycle magnetic oscillation from the maximum phase of solar cycle 20 to the declining phase of solar cycle 21. We interpret this phenomenon as an evidence that main features of the modulation is not caused by dark sunspots and bright faculae and plages on the surface of the Sun that should instantaneously affect the luminosity modulation but is caused by time-delayed modulation of global convection by the Lorentz force of the magnetic field of the solar cycle. The delay time of about 10.3 years is the time needed for the force to modify the flows of the convection and to modulate heat flow. Thus the delay time is a function of the strength of the magnetic field oscillation of the solar cycle which is represented by amplitude of the solar cycle. Accordingly, the delay time for other time intervals of the solar cycle magnetic oscillation with different amplitudes can be different from 10.3 years for the interval of the present analysis.     

Optimum Design of Resilient Sliding Isolation System for Seismic Protection of Equipments

Seismic isolation is one of the effective methods to protect equipments. It helps to keep seismic response accelerations in equipment below its allowable limits. Among different types of isolation systems, the combination of restoring spring and slider, also called as resilient sliding isolation (RSI) system, is the one which has been effectively used for protection of equipment. Principal design parameters for this type of isolation system are period of system (stiffness of spring) and friction coefficient of slider. There may be number of combinations of these design parameters which can enable the isolated equipment to remain functional during and after the predicted seismic event. The optimum design of RSI system can be considered as the one which maintains the response acceleration in the equipment below its allowable limit and at the same time keeps the relative displacement between floor and the equipment to the minimum. This study deals with optimum design of resilient sliding system. First the RSI system is modeled analytically by (i) precise and (ii) simplified SDOF models. The accuracy of the model is then validated by shaking table tests. The validated simplified SDOF model is then used to determine optimum design parameters for different levels of allowable accelerations. Results show that the optimum period decreases and the optimum friction coefficient increases with higher allowable acceleration.     

On the characteristics of the basic framework of solar active regions and the magnetohydrodynamical structure of the convection zone

The characteristics of the basic framework of structure and development of solar active regions are interpreted as good indicators of the magnetohydrodynamical structure of the convection zone, the magnetic field lines of which are twisted and are made wave-like by the action of the very large scale non-axisymmetric convection, called here the global convection. The characteristics discussed in this paper are: (i) the preponderance of preceding spots of bipolar sunspot groups in strength and life time relative to the following spots of the groups, (ii) the tilt of bipolar axes of the sunspot groups to the local parallels of latitude, (iii) the forward inclination of normal axes of sunspots inferred from the east-west asymmetry of the appearance and total area of sunspots, (iv) the faster rotation of sunspots than the averaged fluid rotation, and (v) the association of the characteristics of an active region with the presence of an older active region in its vicinity and with the relative disposition of the two active regions.