Spatial and temporal variability in the stable isotope systematics of modern precipitation in China: implications for paleoclimate reconstructions

The stable isotopic composition of materials such as glacial ice, tree rings, lake sediments, and speleothems from low-to-mid latitudes contains information about past changes in temperature (T) and precipitation amount (P). However, the transfer functions which link δ¹⁸O_p to changes in T or P, dδ¹⁸O_p/dT and dδ¹⁸O_p/dP, can exhibit significant temporal and spatial variability in these regions. In areas affected by the Southeast Asian monsoon, past variations in δ¹⁸O and δD of precipitation have been attributed to variations in monsoon intensity, storm tracks, and/or variations in temperature. Proper interpretation of past δ¹⁸O_p variations here requires an understanding of these complicated stable isotope systematics. Since temperature and precipitation are positively correlated in China and have opposite effects on δ¹⁸O_p, it is necessary to determine which of these effects is dominant for a specific region in order to perform even qualitative paleoclimate reconstructions. Here, we evaluate the value of the transfer functions in modern precipitation to more accurately interpret the paleorecord. The strength of these transfer functions in China is investigated using multiple regression analysis of data from 10 sites within the Global Network for Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP). δ¹⁸O_p is modeled as a function of both temperature and precipitation. The magnitude and signs of the transfer functions at any given site are closely related to the degree of summer monsoon influence. δ¹⁸O_p values at sites with intense summer monsoon precipitation are more dependent on the amount of precipitation than on temperature, and therefore exhibit more negative values in the summer. In contrast, δ¹⁸O_p values at sites that are unaffected by summer monsoon precipitation exhibit strong relationships between δ¹⁸O_p and temperature. The sites that are near the northern limit of the summer monsoon exhibit dependence on both temperature and amount of precipitation. Comparison with simple linear models (δ¹⁸O_p as a function of T or P) and a geographic model (δ¹⁸O_p as a function of latitude and altitude) shows that the multiple regression model is more successful at reproducing δ¹⁸O_p values at sites that are strongly influenced by the summer monsoon. The fact that the transfer function values are highly spatially variable and closely related to the degree of summer monsoon influence suggests that these values may also vary temporally. Since the Southeast Asian monsoon intensity is known to exhibit large variations on a number of timescales (annual to glacial–interglacial), and the magnitude and sign of the transfer functions is related to monsoon intensity, we suggest that as monsoon intensity changes, the magnitude and possibly even the sign of the transfer functions may vary. Therefore, quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions based on δ¹⁸O_p variations may not be valid.     

Gum rosin-acetone system as an analogue to the degassing behaviour of hydrated magmas

Solutions of gum rosin and acetone reproduce the volatile- and temperature-dependent viscosity, together with the phase behaviour, of hydrated magmas. A range of experimental exsolution conditions was investigated, including the variation of supersaturation, rate of decompression, solution temperature and volatile content. Degassing processese were controlled by the formation of an exsolution interface above a supersaturated liquid. The end-products ranged from a mildly degassed liquid to a solid foam, which preserved strained vesicles. Solutions of gum rosin and acetone are proposed as a suitable analogue system with which to study magma degassing processes.     

Effects of structural faults on ground control in selected coal mines in southwest Virginia

Summary Two faults related to the Pine Mountain overthrust sheet near Buchanan County, Virginia, were investigated to determine their effect on ground control and to develop recognition criteria for prediction. Both faults are right lateral, strike-slip faults overprinted simultaneously with thrust faulting. Offsets of the coal seam due to thrust faulting average 6 ft with severe roof conditions (20 ft high roof falls) occurring through an average 30 ft wide zone of disturbance. Recognition criteria include characteristic overthrusting, coalbed swag, bedding plane slippage, and fault gouge. Ground control strategies include mine designs that minimize fault exposure.     

On the contribution of local feedback mechanisms to the range of climate sensitivity in two GCM ensembles

Global and local feedback analysis techniques have been applied to two ensembles of mixed layer equilibrium CO₂ doubling climate change experiments, from the CFMIP (Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project) and QUMP (Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions) projects. Neither of these new ensembles shows evidence of a statistically significant change in the ensemble mean or variance in global mean climate sensitivity when compared with the results from the mixed layer models quoted in the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC. Global mean feedback analysis of these two ensembles confirms the large contribution made by inter-model differences in cloud feedbacks to those in climate sensitivity in earlier studies; net cloud feedbacks are responsible for 66% of the inter-model variance in the total feedback in the CFMIP ensemble and 85% in the QUMP ensemble. The ensemble mean global feedback components are all statistically indistinguishable between the two ensembles, except for the clear-sky shortwave feedback which is stronger in the CFMIP ensemble. While ensemble variances of the shortwave cloud feedback and both clear-sky feedback terms are larger in CFMIP, there is considerable overlap in the cloud feedback ranges; QUMP spans 80% or more of the CFMIP ranges in longwave and shortwave cloud feedback. We introduce a local cloud feedback classification system which distinguishes different types of cloud feedbacks on the basis of the relative strengths of their longwave and shortwave components, and interpret these in terms of responses of different cloud types diagnosed by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project simulator. In the CFMIP ensemble, areas where low-top cloud changes constitute the largest cloud response are responsible for 59% of the contribution from cloud feedback to the variance in the total feedback. A similar figure is found for the QUMP ensemble. Areas of positive low cloud feedback (associated with reductions in low level cloud amount) contribute most to this figure in the CFMIP ensemble, while areas of negative cloud feedback (associated with increases in low level cloud amount and optical thickness) contribute most in QUMP. Classes associated with high-top cloud feedbacks are responsible for 33 and 20% of the cloud feedback contribution in CFMIP and QUMP, respectively, while classes where no particular cloud type stands out are responsible for 8 and 21%.     

Shipping noise in a dynamic sea: a case study of grey seals in the Celtic Sea

Shipping noise is a threat to marine wildlife. Grey seals are benthic foragers, and thus experience acoustic noise throughout the water column, which makes them a good model species for a case study of the potential impacts of shipping noise. We used ship track data from the Celtic Sea, seal track data and a coupled ocean-acoustic modelling system to assess the noise exposure of grey seals along their tracks. It was found that the animals experience step changes in sound levels up to ~ 20 dB at a frequency of 125 Hz, and ~ 10 dB on average over 10–1000 Hz when they dive through the thermocline, particularly during summer. Our results showed large seasonal differences in the noise level experienced by the seals. These results reveal the actual noise exposure by the animals and could help in marine spatial planning.     

Report of the IAU Working Group on Cartographic Coordinates and Rotational Elements: 2015

This report continues the practice where the IAU Working Group on Cartographic Coordinates and Rotational Elements revises recommendations regarding those topics for the planets, satellites, minor planets, and comets approximately every 3 years. The Working Group has now become a “functional working group” of the IAU, and its membership is open to anyone interested in participating. We describe the procedure for submitting questions about the recommendations given here or the application of these recommendations for creating a new or updated coordinate system for a given body. Regarding body orientation, the following bodies have been updated: Mercury, based on MESSENGER results; Mars, along with a refined longitude definition; Phobos; Deimos; (1) Ceres; (52) Europa; (243) Ida; (2867) ?teins; Neptune; (134340) Pluto and its satellite Charon; comets 9P/Tempel 1, 19P/Borrelly, 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko, and 103P/Hartley 2, noting that such information is valid only between specific epochs. The special challenges related to mapping 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko are also discussed. Approximate expressions for the Earth have been removed in order to avoid confusion, and the low precision series expression for the Moon’s orientation has been removed. The previously online only recommended orientation model for (4) Vesta is repeated with an explanation of how it was updated. Regarding body shape, text has been included to explain the expected uses of such information, and the relevance of the cited uncertainty information. The size of the Sun has been updated, and notation added that the size and the ellipsoidal axes for the Earth and Jupiter have been recommended by an IAU Resolution. The distinction of a reference radius for a body (here, the Moon and Titan) is made between cartographic uses, and for orthoprojection and geophysical uses. The recommended radius for Mercury has been updated based on MESSENGER results. The recommended radius for Titan is returned to its previous value. Size information has been updated for 13 other Saturnian satellites and added for Aegaeon. The sizes of Pluto and Charon have been updated. Size information has been updated for (1) Ceres and given for (16) Psyche and (52) Europa. The size of (25143) Itokawa has been corrected. In addition, the discussion of terminology for the poles (hemispheres) of small bodies has been modified and a discussion on cardinal directions added. Although they continue to be used for planets and their satellites, it is assumed that the planetographic and planetocentric coordinate system definitions do not apply to small bodies. However, planetocentric and planetodetic latitudes and longitudes may be used on such bodies, following the right-hand rule. We repeat our previous recommendations that planning and efforts be made to make controlled cartographic products; newly recommend that common formulations should be used for orientation and size; continue to recommend that a community consensus be developed for the orientation models of Jupiter and Saturn; newly recommend that historical summaries of the coordinate systems for given bodies should be developed, and point out that for planets and satellites planetographic systems have generally been historically preferred over planetocentric systems, and that in cases when planetographic coordinates have been widely used in the past, there is no obvious advantage to switching to the use of planetocentric coordinates. The Working Group also requests community input on the question submitting process, posting of updates to the Working Group website, and on whether recommendations should be made regarding exoplanet coordinate systems.     

Scarifying and fingering surfaces of plunging jets

The local surface deformation resulting from the oblique impact of a columnar water jet has been computed, using a three-dimensional large eddy simulation, as a model of the overturning jet of a breaking wave. The emergence of the secondary jet from the front face of the initial jet has been examined and the organisation of the vortices within the jet characterised. As the secondary jet emerges, the vorticity field becomes unstable under the action of the strong shear beneath the jet surface and pairs of longitudinal counter-rotating vortices stretched along the direction of the jet projection are formed. The presence of these longitudinal vortex pairs creates convergent surface flows, resulting in the formation of longitudinal scars on the rear face of the projecting jet. Following significant growth of the scars on both its upper and lower surfaces, the jet decouples into fingers. The lateral widths of the longitudinal vortices provide a minimum measure of the finger size. A horizontal Froude number Fr_h, representing a measure of strength of horizontal shear in a gravity-dominated impacting flow is defined, which characterises the organisation of the longitudinal vortices occurring in the shear flow, and the resultant formation of scars and fingers. For higher Fr_h, stronger longitudinal vortices and deeper scars are formed at longer lateral intervals, enhancing the fingering process during the splashing event. Fundamental features of material transport in the vicinity of the surface of jets (e.g. gas transfer across a sea surface) are related to the entrainment of surface fluid by the longitudinal vortices, and is thus also characterised by Fr_h.     

Extended time weather forecasts contributes to agricultural productivity estimates

Weather conditions in critical periods of the vegetative crop development influence crop productivity, thus being a basic parameter for crop forecast. Reliable extended period weather forecasts may contribute to improve the estimation of agricultural productivity. The production of soybean plays an important role in the Brazilian economy, because this country is ranked among the largest producers of soybeans in the world. This culture can be significantly affected by water conditions, depending on the intensity of water deficit. This work explores the role of extended period weather forecasts for estimating soybean productivity in the southern part of Brazil, Passo Fundo, and Londrina (State of Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, respectively) in the 2005/2006 harvest. The goal was to investigate the possible contribution of precipitation forecasts as a substitute for the use of climatological data on crop forecasts. The results suggest that the use of meteorological forecasts generate more reliable productivity estimates during the growth period than those generated only through climatological information.     

A step-response approach for predicting and understanding non-linear precipitation changes

Future changes in precipitation represent one of the most important and uncertain possible effects of future climate change. We demonstrate a new approach based on idealised CO₂ step-change general circulation model (GCM) experiments, and test it using the HadCM3 GCM. The approach has two purposes: to help understand GCM projections, and to build and test a fast simple model for precipitation projections under a wide range of forcing scenarios. Overall, we find that the CO₂ step experiments contain much information that is relevant to transient projections, but that is more easily extracted due to the idealised experimental design. We find that the temporary acceleration of global-mean precipitation in this GCM following CO₂ ramp-down cannot be fully explained simply using linear responses to CO₂ and temperature. A more complete explanation can be achieved with an additional term representing interaction between CO₂ and temperature effects. Energy budget analysis of this term is dominated by clear-sky outgoing long-wave radiation (CSOLR) and sensible heating, but cloud and short-wave terms also contribute. The dominant CSOLR interaction is attributable to increased CO₂ raising the mean emission level to colder altitudes, which reduces the rate of increase of OLR with warming. This behaviour can be reproduced by our simple model. On regional scales, we compare our approach with linear ‘pattern-scaling’ (scaling regional responses by global-mean temperature change). In regions where our model predicts linear change, pattern-scaling works equally well. In some regions, however, substantial deviations from linear scaling with global-mean temperature are found, and our simple model provides more accurate projections. The idealised experiments reveal a complex pattern of non-linear behaviour. There are likely to be a range of controlling physical mechanisms, different from those dominating the global-mean response, requiring focussed investigation for individual regions, and in other GCMs.