Criteria for Selecting and Adjusting Ground-Motion Models for Specific Target Regions: Application to Central Europe and Rock Sites

A vital component of any seismic hazard analysis is a model for predicting the expected distribution of ground motions at a site due to possible earthquake scenarios. The limited nature of the datasets from which such models are derived gives rise to epistemic uncertainty in both the median estimates and the associated aleatory variability of these predictive equations. In order to capture this epistemic uncertainty in a seismic hazard analysis, more than one ground-motion prediction equation must be used, and the tool that is currently employed to combine multiple models is the logic tree. Candidate ground-motion models for a logic tree should be selected in order to obtain the smallest possible suite of equations that can capture the expected range of possible ground motions in the target region. This is achieved by starting from a comprehensive list of available equations and then applying criteria for rejecting those considered inappropriate in terms of quality, derivation or applicability. Once the final list of candidate models is established, adjustments must be applied to achieve parameter compatibility. Additional adjustments can also be applied to remove the effect of systematic differences between host and target regions. These procedures are applied to select and adjust ground-motion models for the analysis of seismic hazard at rock sites in West Central Europe. This region is chosen for illustrative purposes particularly because it highlights the issue of using ground-motion models derived from small magnitude earthquakes in the analysis of hazard due to much larger events. Some of the pitfalls of extrapolating ground-motion models from small to large magnitude earthquakes in low seismicity regions are discussed for the selected target region.     

Evaluating hazard results for Switzerland and how not to do it: A discussion of “Problems in the application of the SSHAC probability method for assessing earthquake hazards at Swiss nuclear power plants” by J-U Klügel

The PEGASOS project was a major international seismic hazard study, one of the largest ever conducted anywhere in the world, to assess seismic hazard at four nuclear power plant sites in Switzerland. Before the report of this project has become publicly available, a paper attacking both methodology and results has appeared. Since the general scientific readership may have difficulty in assessing this attack in the absence of the report being attacked, we supply a response in the present paper. The bulk of the attack, besides some misconceived arguments about the role of uncertainties in seismic hazard analysis, is carried by some exercises that purport to be validation exercises. In practice, they are no such thing; they are merely independent sets of hazard calculations based on varying assumptions and procedures, often rather questionable, which come up with various different answers which have no particular significance.     

Earthquake Location Accuracies in Norway Based on a Comparison between Local and Regional Networks

—?Detailed studies of the low to intermediate seismicity in two coastal regions of Norway have been used in a comparison between earthquake locations from local high-precision networks on the one side and locations using a sparse regional array network on the other side. To this end, a reference set of 32 low-magnitude earthquakes have been located using two local temporary networks in northern and western Norway, with estimated epicenter accuracies better than 5 and 10?km, respectively. Comparisons are made between the local network solutions and the NORSAR Generalized Beamforming (GBF) system, which provides automatic phase association and location estimates using the Fennoscandian regional array network. The median automatic GBF location error is of the order of 20–30?km when four or more arrays detect the event, increasing to about 80–100?km when only two arrays are available, and the automatic GBF bulletin is essentially complete down to magnitude M_L = 2.0. Most of the mislocation vectors of the NORSAR GBF solutions are oriented perpendicular to the Norwegian coast, and with a tendency to pull the location in a southeasternly direction. The GBF performance is clearly better, both in terms of accuracy and completeness, than the performance of the automatic bulletin of the Prototype International Data Center (PIDC) which uses data from essentially the same network. The analyst reviewed NORSAR and PIDC bulletins show, not unexpectedly, an improvement in location accuracy compared to the automatic solutions and appear to be of similar quality for the few common events, with an average mislocation of about 20?km. The NORSAR reviewed bulletin is more complete at low magnitudes compared to PIDC, and there appears to be a potential for significant improvements in the PIDC processing of small seismic events in this region.     

Coda pattern and multipath propagation of Rayleigh waves at NORSAR

The coda of Rayleigh waves from fifteen earthquakes recorded at the Norwegian Seismic Array (NORSAR) have been analyzed in wavenumber space at periods of 40 and 20 sec. The power at 40 sec drops off faster vs. time, which reduces the probability of interference between events. On the other side, the capability of the array to resolve signals under various conditions is better at 20 sec. Since also the frequency distribution of signal power varies, one cannot determine any specific frequency as generally having the best signal/interference ratio. The detection problem is also complicated by considerable multipath propagation, which is most severe at 20 sec. Multipath arrivals with as much as 40–60° azimuthal deviation are frequently identified. Travel path solutions for different events are proposed, and usually the rays have been found to be refracted or reflected at continental boundaries. An atmospheric nuclear explosion from Lop Nor has been used to illustrate these various aspects of the problem of detecting one Rayleigh wave in the presence of another.     

Sorption Behaviour of Phenols on Natural Sandy Aquifer Material during Flow‐through Column Experiments: The Effect of pH

Flow‐through column experiments were carried out to investigate the influence of pH on the sorption of three phenols (2‐methyl‐4, 6‐dinitrophenol, 2, 4, 6‐trichlorophenol, pentachlorophenol) onto a natural sandy aquifer material collected from a bank filtration site of River Elbe, Germany. For the phenols investigated, an increase in sorption (retardation) with decreasing pH is observed indicating a stronger sorption of the neutral species in comparison to that of the anions formed by dissociation. The anions of 2‐methyl‐4, 6‐dinitrophenol and 2, 4, 6‐trichlorophenol do not show significant sorption. On the contrary, pentachlorophenol showed sorption not only in neutral form but also in ionic form significantly which should be taken into account while assessing the fate and transport of such compound. A linear model based on the degree of protonation (calculated from pH and pK_a) can be used to resolve the apparent (observed) sorption coefficient (K_{d, app}) into its neutral (K_{d, n}) and ionised (K_{d, i}) components. Knowing pK_a, K_{d, n}, and K_{d, i} the apparent sorption coefficient for pH values other than experimentally investigated can be predicted.     

Konoskopische Interferenzfiguren bei Beobachtung im Auflicht an nichtopaken Kristallen

Zusammenfassung Konoskopische Interferenzfiguren können an durchsichtigen, doppelbrechenden Kristallen auch im Auflicht erhalten werden, wofern es gelingt, eine Reflexion im Innern des Kristalls an einer (natürlichen oder künstlichen) Begrenzungsfläche —allenfalls auch an einem kristallographisch begrenzten oder zufällig regellosen Spalt — zu erzeugen. Ebenheit und Glätte sind keine unbedingten Voraussetzungen für das Zustandekommen der Effekte. Die Reflexion ist am stärksten an Grenzflächen gegen Luft, doch ist auch dies keine grundsatzliche Bedingung. Besonders günstig ist es, wenn eine optisch ausgezeichnete Richtung (optische Achse, Bisektrix) in der Nähe der Normalen der Einstrahlungsfläche liegt. Ist dies nicht der Fall, so kann man unter Benutzung eines Drehtisches (mit dem oberen Segment oder ohne ein solches) die interessierenden Richtungen der Tubusachse parallel stellen. Als Apparatur können normale mineralogische Polarisationsmikroskope, bzw. wo starke Vergrößerungen nötig sind, Erzmikroskope verwendet werden. Grundsätzlich neu ist nur ein leicht zu improvisierender Spezialkollimator mit großem Öffnungswinkel und eingebautem Polarisator. Dies Verfahren hat Bedeutung für die Untersuchung aufgewachsener oder in einer künstlichen Fassung befindlicher Kristalle.Herrn Professor Dr.Carl W. Correns zum 60. Geburtstag gewidmet.     

Towards a Higher Comparability of Geothermometric Data Obtained by Raman Spectroscopy of Carbonaceous Material. Part 2: A Revised Geothermometer

The estimation of the peak metamorphic temperature by Raman spectroscopy of carbonaceous material (RSCM) is influenced by several bias sources grouped in measuring conditions, spectral processing and sample heterogeneity. The measuring conditions (selected excitation wavelength) and the operator bias during spectral processing have a pronounced impact on the temperature estimate and thus on the comparability and portability of thermometric data obtained by RSCM. Several calibration lines of RSCM geothermometers are published already, but no standardised approach exists. Samples of carbonaceous material bearing metasediments with well‐established metamorphic conditions of the central and western Alps compile a reference series. By applying an automated, iterative and randomised curve‐fitting approach, a consistent and user input‐independent RSCM geothermometer is presented, which covers peak metamorphic temperatures from ca. 160 to 600 °C. The method is hardware independent because the measuring conditions bias is excluded by the use of the reference series and the automated curve‐fitting approach reduces the spectral processing bias effectively, increasing the method's comparability and portability. By distributing the reference series and the automated curve‐fitting software, a laboratory will be able to derive a laboratory specific calibration line for the RSCM geothermometer.