Observation of mixed Rossby-gravity waves in the Western equatorial Pacific

During the IOP (Intensive Observation Period) of TOGA/COARE (Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere/Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment) from December 1992 to February 1993, four Japanese moored ADCPs (Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers) measured vertical profiles of three-component velocities at the stations 2S (2°S, 156°E), 2N (2°N, 156°E), 154E (0°N, 154°E) and 147E (0°N, 147°E). Power spectra of the surface current showed a pronounced peak having a period of around 14 days for both the zonal and meridional velocities at the stations 2S and 2N near the equator, and for only the meridional velocity at the equator. This 14-day phenomenon is considered to be a kind of equatorial wave of the first baroclinic mode, from a comparison of the result of the vertical mode analysis and the vertical distribution of the standard deviation of band-pass filtered velocity fluctuations. A dispersion relationship obtained from the horizontal mode analysis of this wave confirmed that the 14-day phenomenon is a mixed Rossby-gravity wave with the westward propagating phase speed and eastward propagating group velocity. From the cross-spectral analysis of velocity data, the average phase speed and wavelength of the wave were estimated as 3.64 m s⁻¹ and 3939 km, respectively, for station pair 2S∼147E. These values were in good agreement with the average phase speed and wavelength of 3.58 m s⁻¹ and 3836 km estimated from the dispersion curve and the observed period. A northerly wind burst blew over all the mooring sites during the middle of the observation period. The mixed Rossby-gravity wave, which is anti-symmetric for the zonal velocity about the equator, is likely to be forced by this northerly wind burst crossing the equator. Generation of the oceanic mixed Rossby-gravity wave of the first baroclinic mode is discussed in association with the atmospheric Rossby wave having the same period.     

Probabilistic estimates of recent changes in temperature: a multi-scale attribution analysis

The role of anthropogenic forcings in temperature changes during recent decades is investigated over a range of spatial scales. Changes in the annual mean surface temperature and also in the warmest night of the year, which has implications for human health, are considered. Distributions of regional trends with and without the effect of human activity are produced, using constraints from a global optimal detection analysis. Anthropogenic forcings are estimated to have more than doubled the likelihood of mean warming in all regions considered except central North America, where results are more model dependent. The likelihood of warming of the warmest night has also increased, but the estimated change is more uncertain. Inferences on sub-continental scales are indicative rather than definitive because of the absence of locally important forcings and processes in model simulations, as well as model biases. As model inconsistencies may impact regional analyses, a multi-model approach is essential.     

Geology and eruptive history of Unzen volcano, Shimabara Peninsula, Kyushu, SW Japan

During the past 500 thousand years, Unzen volcano, an active composite volcano in the Southwest Japan Arc, has erupted lavas and pyroclastic materials of andesite to dacite composition and has developed a volcanotectonic graben. The volcano can be divided into the Older and the Younger Unzen volcanoes. The exposed rocks of the Older Unzen volcano are composed of thick lava flows and pyroclastic deposits dated around 200–300 ka. Drill cores recovered from the basal part of the Older Unzen volcano are dated at 400–500 ka. The volcanic rocks of the Older Unzen exceed 120 km³ in volume. The Younger Unzen volcano is composed of lava domes and pyroclastic deposits, mostly younger than 100 ka. This younger volcanic edifice comprises Nodake, Myokendake, Fugendake, and Mayuyama volcanoes. Nodake, Myokendake and Fugendake volcanoes are 100–70 ka, 30–20 ka, and <20 ka, respectively. Mayuyama volcano formed huge lava domes on the eastern flank of the Unzen composite volcano about 4000 years ago. Total eruptive volume of the Younger Unzen volcano is about 8 km³, and the eruptive production rate is one order of magnitude smaller than that of the Older Unzen volcano.     

Reliability and importance of structural diversity of climate model ensembles

We investigate the performance of the newest generation multi-model ensemble (MME) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We compare the ensemble to the previous generation models (CMIP3) as well as several single model ensembles (SMEs), which are constructed by varying components of single models. These SMEs range from ensembles where parameter uncertainties are sampled (perturbed physics ensembles) through to an ensemble where a number of the physical schemes are switched (multi-physics ensemble). We focus on assessing reliability against present-day climatology with rank histograms, but also investigate the effective degrees of freedom (EDoF) of the fields of variables which makes the statistical test of reliability more rigorous, and consider the distances between the observation and ensemble members. We find that the features of the CMIP5 rank histograms, of general reliability on broad scales, are consistent with those of CMIP3, suggesting a similar level of performance for present-day climatology. The spread of MMEs tends towards being “over-dispersed” rather than “under-dispersed”. In general, the SMEs examined tend towards insufficient dispersion and the rank histogram analysis identifies them as being statistically distinguishable from many of the observations. The EDoFs of the MMEs are generally greater than those of SMEs, suggesting that structural changes lead to a characteristically richer range of model behaviours than is obtained with parametric/physical-scheme-switching ensembles. For distance measures, the observations and models ensemble members are similarly spaced from each other for MMEs, whereas for the SMEs, the observations are generally well outside the ensemble. We suggest that multi-model ensembles should represent an important component of uncertainty analysis.     

Effects of load irregularity on the cyclic behaviour of sand

In an effort to investigate the effects of irregular nature of load application on the behaviour of soils during earthquakes, a series of uni-directional irregular loading tests were performed on saturated Fuji river snad under undrained condition using a simple shear test apparatus. The samples prepared to three different densities in this test device were subjected to twelve irregular time histories of shear stress alteration. For comparison purposes, the conventional type of constant amplitude cyclic simple shear tests were also conducted on samples prepared under identical conditions. On the basis of the test results, values of coefficients allowing for the effect of load irregularity were elucidated for the samples with three different densities. It was then suggested that the values of coefficient thus determined be used to facilitate the evaluation of the soil strength under actual seismic loading conditions, on the basis of the cyclic shear strength obtained from the conventional type of constant-amplitude triaxial tests.     

Rising motion of a behind-the-limb flare at 35 GHz

Interferometer observation of a behind-the-limb flare on 7 September, 1977, at 35 GHz ( = 8.6 mm) shows that the microwave non-thermal radio source of the burst is located in the coronal region at the height higher than 7000 km above the photosphere and rises gradually with the velocity of about 30 km s^-1.     

Effect of divergence,stretching and nonnormal distribution on apparent diffusion of surface drifters

Kawai (1976, 1979) derived two simple relations among the apparent diffusivity (based on the geometric-average variance for principal axes of spreading) for many surface drifters in a patch and horizontal divergence and isotropic turbulent diffusivity for ambient water. By a new term medley diffusivity is meant an average of the products of the position coordinates relative to the centroid of drifters and the residual velocity, that is, the velocity left by subtracting the mean velocity and the velocity due to the linear velocity gradient from the velocity of a drifter. Regarding the medley diffusivity as the isotropic turbulent diffusivity that is weighted anisotropically according to drifters spreading along each of the principal axes, this paper derives a new relation with a form intermediate between the above two relations. Using the relation, this paper defines the new critical period within which the effect of horizontal divergence on the apparent diffusion surpasses that of isotropic turbulent diffusion, and discusses the time-scales on which the space-scale dependence of the squared divergence (Kawai, 1985b) is based. Stretching of a patch of drifters and deviation of drifters' position from the bivariate normal distribution enhance the effect of isotropic turbulent diffusion on the apparent diffusion. This stretching effect is equivalent to the shear effect on a horizontal plane. Remarks on reducing errors in the estimation of isotropic turbulent diffusivity are made.     

Co-ignimbrite ash-fall deposits of the 1991 eruptions of Fugen-dake, Unzen Volcano, Japan

Fugen-dake, the main peak of Unzen Volcano, began a new eruption sequence on November 17, 1990. On May 20, 1991, a new lava dome appeared near the eastern edge of the Fugen-dake summit. Small-scale, 10⁴–10⁶ m³ in volume, Merapi-type block and ash flows were frequently generated from the growing lava dome during May–June, 1991. These pyroclastic flows were accompanied by co-ignimbrite ash plumes that deposited ash-fall deposits downwind of the volcano. Three examples of co-ignimbrite ash-fall deposits from Unzen pyroclastic flows are described. The volume of fall deposits was estimated to be about 30% by volume of the collapsed portions of the dome that formed pyroclastic flows. This proportion is smaller than that described for other larger co-ignimbrite ash-fall deposits from other volcanoes. Grain size distributions of the Unzen co-ignimbrite ash-fall deposits are bi-modal or tri-modal. Most ashes are finer than 4 phi and two modes were observed at around 4–7 phi and 9 phi. They are composed mainly of groundmass fragments. Fractions of another mode at around 2 phi are rich in crystals derived from dome lava. Some of the fine ash component fell as accretionary lapilli from the co-ignimbrite ash cloud indicating either moisture or electrostatic aggregation. We believe that the co-ignimbrite ash of Unzen block and ash flows were formed by the mechanical fracturing of the cooling lava blocks as they collapsed and moved down the slope. These ashes were entrained into the convective plumes generated off the tops of the moving flows.     

Damage to coastal villages due to the 1992 Flores Island earthquake tsunami

A field survey of the 1992 Flores Island earthquake tsunami was conducted during December 29, 1992 to January 5, 1993 along the north coast of the eastern part of Flores Island. We visited over 40 villages, measured tsunami heights, and interviewed the inhabitants. It was clarified that the first wave attacked the coast within five minutes at most of the surveyed villages. The crust was uplifted west of the Cape of Batumanuk, and subsided east of it. In the residential area of Wuring, which is located on a sand spit with ground height of 2 meters, most wooden houses built on stilts collapsed and 87 people were killed even though the tsunami height reached only 3.2 meters. In the two villages on Babi Island, the tsunami swept away all wooden houses and killed 263 of 1,093 inhabitants. Tsunami height at Riang-Kroko village on the northeastern end of Flores Island reached 26.2 meters and 137 of the 406 inhabitants were killed by the tsumani. Evidence of landslides was detected at a few points on the coast of Hading Bay, and the huge tsunami was probably formed by earthquake-induced landslides. The relationship between tsunami height and mortality was checked for seven villages. The efficiencies of trees arranged in front of coastal villages, and coral reefs in dissipating the tsunami energy are discussed.     

Mechanism of the M<Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">L</Emphasis></Subscript>4.0 25 April 2016 earthquake in southwest of France in the vicinity of the Lacq gas field

The source mechanism of the M_L 4.0 25 April 2016 Lacq earthquake (Aquitaine Basin, South-West France) is analyzed from the available public data and discussed with respect to the geometry of the nearby Lacq gas field. It is one of the biggest earthquakes in the area in the past few decades of gas extraction and the biggest after the end of gas exploitation in 2013. The routinely obtained location shows its hypocenter position inside the gas reservoir. We first analyze its focal mechanism through regional broad-band seismograms recorded in a radius of about 50 km epicentral distances and obtain EW running normal faulting above the reservoir. While the solution is stable using regional data only, we observe a large discrepancy between the recorded data on nearby station URDF and the forward modeling up to 1 Hz. We then look for the best epicenter position through performing wave propagation simulations and constraining the potential source area by the peak ground velocity (PGV). The resulting epicentral position is a few to several km away to the north or south direction with respect to station URDF such that the simulated particle motions are consistent with the observation. The initial motion of the seismograms shows that the epicenter position in the north from URDF is preferable, indicating the north-east of the Lacq reservoir. This study is an application of full waveform simulations and characterization of near-field ground motion in terms of an engineering factor such as PGV. The finally obtained solution gives a moment magnitude of M_w 3.9 and the best focal depth of 4 km, which corresponds to the crust above the reservoir rather than its interior. This position is consistent with the tendency of Coulomb stress change due to a compaction at 5 km depth in the crust. Therefore, this earthquake can be interpreted as a relaxation of the shallow crust due to a deeper gas reservoir compaction so that the occurrence of similar events cannot be excluded in the near future. It would be necessary to continue monitoring such local induced seismicity in order to better understand the reservoir/overburden behavior and better assess the local seismic hazard even after the end of gas exploitation.