Emission scenario dependencies in climate change assessments of the hydrological cycle

Anthropogenic global warming will lead to changes in the global hydrological cycle. The uncertainty in precipitation sensitivity per 1 K of global warming across coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) has been actively examined. On the other hand, the uncertainty in precipitation sensitivity in different emission scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols has received little attention. Here we show a robust emission-scenario dependency (ESD); smaller global precipitation sensitivities occur in higher GHG and aerosol emission scenarios. Although previous studies have applied this ESD to the multi-AOGCM mean, our surprising finding is that current AOGCMs all have the common ESD in the same direction. Different aerosol emissions lead to this ESD. The implications of the ESD of precipitation sensitivity extend far beyond climate analyses. As we show, the ESD potentially propagates into considerable biases in impact assessments of the hydrological cycle via a widely used technique, so-called pattern scaling. Since pattern scaling is essential to conducting parallel analyses across climate, impact, adaptation and mitigation scenarios in the next report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, more attention should be paid to the ESD of precipitation sensitivity.     

Volcanism in the earliest stage of back-arc rifting in the Izu-Bonin arc revealed by laser-heating Ar/Ar dating

The back-arc region of the Izu-Bonin arc has complex bathymetric and structural features, which, due to repeated back-arc rifting and resumption of arc volcanism, have prevented us from understanding the volcano-tectonic history of the arc after 15 Ma. The laser-heating ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating technique combined with high density sampling of volcanic rocks from the back-arc region of this arc successfully revealed the detailed temporal variation of volcanism related to the back-arc rifting. Based on the new ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating results: (1) Back-arc rifting initiated at around 2.8 Ma in the middle part of the Izu-Bonin arc (30°30′N–32°30′N). Volcanism at the earliest stage of rifting is characterized by the basaltic volcanism from north–south-trending fissures and/or lines of vents. (2) Following this earliest stage of volcanism, at ca. 2.5 Ma, compositionally bimodal volcanism occurred and formed small cones in the wide area. This volcanism and rifting continued until about 1 Ma in the region west of the currently active rift zone. (3) After 1 Ma, active volcanism ceased in the area west of the currently active rift zone, and volcanism and rifting were confined to the currently active rift zone. The volcano-tectonic history of the back-arc region of the Izu-Bonin arc is an example of the earliest stage of back-arc rifting in the oceanic island arc. Age data on volcanics clearly indicate that volcanism changed its mode of activity, composition and locus along with a progress of rifting.     

Geneses of Two Types of Mafic Rocks to Carry Placer‐Magnetite Ores in the Sanin Granitic Belt,SW Japan

Two types of mafic rocks from the central Sanin district, and their mafic minerals, were studied chemically and microscopically. They are classified into pyroxene‐containing gabbroid and hornblende–biotite quartz diorite. The gabbroid had higher color index but lower magnetite content; while the quartz diorite had lower color index, but higher magnetite content. The magnetite contents are also related to the amounts of hydrous mafic silicates. The gabbroic magma having pyroxene–amphibole assemblage, originated in the upper mantle, was considered essentially anhydrous, but became partly hydrous on the way to the site of solidification in the continental crust, and crystallized some magnetites with hypersthene and amphibole. The quartz dioritic magma was formed by partial melting of possibly subducting ocean‐floor basalts, once exposed to the sea‐floor then altered; thus the magmas became hydrous and oxidized originally, and precipitated abundant magnetite and hydrous mafic silicates from the early crystallization stage onward. Their weathered parts provided the most placer magnetite ores in the history.