Mixing of magmatic CO2 into volcano groundwater flow at Aso volcano assessed combining carbon and water stable isotopes

To understand deep groundwater flow systems and their interaction with CO₂ emanated from magma at depth in a volcanic edifice, deep groundwater samples were collected from hot spring wells in the Aso volcanic area for hydrogen, oxygen and carbon isotope analyses and measurements of the stable carbon isotope ratios and concentrations of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). Relations between the stable carbon isotope ratio (δ¹³C_DIC) and DIC concentrations of the sampled waters show that magma-derived CO₂ mixed into the deep groundwater. Furthermore, groundwaters of deeper areas, except samples from fumarolic areas, show higher δ¹³C_DIC values. The waters' stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios (δD and δ¹⁸O) reflect the meteoric-water origin of that region's deep groundwater. A negative correlation was found between the altitude of the well bottom and the altitude of groundwater recharge as calculated using the equation of the recharge-water line and δD value. This applies especially in the Aso-dani area, where deeper groundwater correlates with higher recharge. Groundwater recharged at high altitude has higher δ¹³C_DIC of than groundwater recharged at low altitude, strongly suggesting that magmatic CO₂ is present to a much greater degree in deeper groundwater. These results indicate that magmatic CO₂ mixes into deeper groundwater flowing nearer the magma conduit or chamber.     

Fracture strength of dry silicate rocks at high confining pressures and activity of acoustic emission

Three dry silicate rocks, gabbro, dunite and eclogite, were triaxially compressed up to a confining pressure of 3 GPa at room temperature. These rocks exhibited brittle fracture behavior up to the highest confining pressure. The change of the mechanism of fracture in the brittle region is suggested from the measurement of the compressive fracture strength and the activity of acoustic emission. The existence of the “high-pressure brittle-fracture” phase is proposed. The fracture strength increased with increase of confining pressure. The increasing rate of strength was lowered at a value of confining pressure: at about 0.8 GPa on gabbro; at about 1.0 GPa on dunite; and at about 1.5 GPa on eclogite. At lower confining pressures than the above value, the acoustic emission rate began to increase at the onset of dilatancy and increased rapidly followed by fracture as the axial stress was increased. At the higher confining pressures, however, the acoustic emission rate did not increase rapidly before final fracture, and stayed constant to the fracture. The similar behavior was shown on the granite studied previously. It is interesting that the frictional strength forms the boundary between “low- and high-pressure brittle-fracture” phases.     

Variation of rare earth concentrations in pigeonitic and hypersthenic rock series from Izu-Hakone region,Japan

The abundances of rare earth elements in 5 each of aphyric volcanic rocks of pigeonitic and hypersthenic rock series from Izu-Hakone region have been determined by neutron activation analysis. Pigeonitic rock series show rare earth patterns with relative depletion of lighter rare earths (low lanthanum type) and large increase in rare earth abundances with differentiation. Hypersthenic rock series show higher lanthanum abundances (high lanthanum type) compared with pigeonitic rock series. The differences in rare earth patterns between two rock series are compatible with the theory of independent magmatic generation of these two series. Variation of rare earth patterns in both series have been examined by a model of magmatic differentiation based on the observed rare earth partition coefficients.     

Curvature derived from LiDAR digital elevation models as simple indicators of debris-flow susceptibility

To mitigate the damage caused by debris flows resulting from heavy precipitation and to aid in evacuation plan preparation, areas at risk should be mapped on a scale appropriate for affected individuals and communities. We tested the effectiveness of simply identifying debris-flow hazards through automated derivation of surface curvatures using LiDAR digital elevation models. We achieved useful correspondence between plan curvatures and areas of existing debris-flow damage in two localities in Japan using the analysis of digital elevation models(DEMs). We found that plan curvatures derived from 10 m DEMs may be useful to indicate areas that are susceptible to debris flow in mountainous areas. In residential areas located on gentle sloping debris flow fans, the greatest damage to houses was found to be located in the elongated depressions that are connected to mountain stream valleys. Plan curvaturederived from 5 m DEM was the most sensitive indicators for susceptibility to debris flows.     

Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM without flux corrections: experimental design and results

In this study, we constructed a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) for the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (CGCM) to investigate the parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity (CS). Previous studies of PPEs have mainly used the atmosphere-slab ocean models. A few PPE studies using a CGCM applied flux corrections, because perturbations in parameters can lead to large radiation imbalances at the top of the atmosphere and climate drifts. We developed a method to prevent climate drifts in PPE experiments using the MIROC5 CGCM without flux corrections. We simultaneously swept 10 parameters in atmosphere and surface schemes. The range of CS (estimated from our 35 ensemble members) was not wide (2.2–3.2?°C). The shortwave cloud feedback related to changes in middle-level cloud albedo dominated the variations in the total feedback. We found three performance metrics for the present climate simulations of middle-level cloud albedo, precipitation, and ENSO amplitude that systematically relate to the variations in shortwave cloud feedback in this PPE.     

Seismological asperities from the point of view of dynamic rupture modeling: the 2007 Mw6.6 Chuetsu-Oki,Japan, earthquake

We study the ground motion simulations based on three finite-source models for the 2007 Mw6.6 Niigata Chuetsu-oki, Japan, earthquake in order to discuss the performance of the input ground motion estimations for the near-field seismic hazard analysis. The three models include a kinematic source inverted from the regional accelerations, a dynamic source on a planar fault with three asperities inferred from the very-near-field ground motion particle motions, and another dynamic source model with conjugate fault segments. The ground motions are calculated for an available 3D geological model using a finite-difference method. For the comparison, we apply a goodness-of-fit score to the ground motion parameters at different stations, including the nearest one that is almost directly above the ruptured fault segments. The dynamic rupture models show good performance. We find that seismologically inferred earthquake asperities on a single fault plane can be expressed with two conjugate segments. The rupture transfer from one segment to another can generate a significant radiation; this could be interpreted as an asperity projected onto a single fault plane. This example illustrates the importance of the fault geometry that has to be taken into account when estimating the very-near-field ground motion.     

Field survey of the East Java earthquake and tsunami of June 3, 1994

A field survey of the June 3, 1994 East Java earthquake tsunami was conducted within three weeks, and the distributions of the seismic intensities, tsunami heights, and human and house damages were surveyed. The seismic intensities on the south coasts of Java and Bali Islands were small for an earthquake with magnitudeM 7.6. The earthquake caused no land damage. About 40 minutes after the main shock, a huge tsunami attacked the coasts, several villages in East Java Province were damaged severely, and 223 persons perished. At Pancer Village about 70 percent of the houses were swept away and 121 persons were killed by the tsunami. The relationship between tsunami heights and distances from the source shows that the Hatori's tsunami magnitude wasm=3, which seems to be larger for the earthquake magnitude. But we should not consider this an extraordinary event because it was pointed out byHatori (1994) that the magnitudes of tsunamis in the Indonesia-Philippine region generally exceed 1–2 grade larger than those of other regions.     

On the Effects of Non-planar Geometry for Blind Thrust Faults on Strong Ground Motion

— We quantify the effects of complex fault geometry on low-frequency (<1 Hz) strong ground motion using numerical modeling of dynamic rupture. Our tests include the computation of synthetic seismograms for several simple rupture scenarios with planar and curved fault approximations of the 1994 Northridge earthquake. We use the boundary integral equation method (BIEM) to compute the dynamic rupture process, which includes the normal stress effects along the curved fault geometries. The wave propagation and computation of synthetic seismograms are modeled using a fourth-order finite-difference method (FDM). The near-field ground motion is significantly affected by the acceleration, deceleration and arrest of rupture due to the curvature of the faults, as well as the variation in directivity of the rupture. For example, a 6-km-long hanging-wall or footwall splay with a maximum offset of 1 km can change 1-Hz peak velocities by up to a factor of 2-3 near the fault. Our tests suggest that the differences in waveform are larger on the hanging wall compared to those on the footwall, although the differences in amplitude are larger in the forward rupture direction (footwall). The results imply that kinematic ground motion estimates may be biased by the omission of dynamic rupture effects and even relatively gentle variation in fault geometry, and even for long-period waves.     

Nishinoshima volcano in the Ogasawara Arc: New continent from the ocean?

Nishinoshima, a submarine volcano in the Ogasawara Arc, approximately 1 000 km south of Tokyo, Japan, suddenly erupted in November 2013, after 40 years of dormancy. Olivine‐bearing phenocryst‐poor andesites found in older submarine lavas from the flanks of the volcano have been used to develop a model for the genesis of andesitic lavas from Nishinoshima. In this model, primary andesite magmas originate directly from the mantle as a result of shallow and hydrous melting of plagioclase peridotites. Thus, it only operates beneath Nishinoshima and submarine volcanoes in the Ogasawara Arc and other oceanic arcs, where the crust is thin. The primary magma compositions have changed from basalt, produced at considerable depth, to andesite, produced beneath the existing thinner crust at this location in the arc. This reflects the thermal and mechanical evolution of the mantle wedge and the overlying lithosphere. It is suggested that continental crust‐like andesitic magma builds up beneath submarine volcanoes on thin arc lithosphere today, and has built up beneath such volcanoes in the past. Andesites produced by this shallow and hydrous melting of the mantle could accumulate through collisions of plates to generate continental crust.     

A Survey of Techniques for Predicting Earthquake Ground Motions for Engineering Purposes

Over the past four or five decades many advances have been made in earthquake ground-motion prediction and a variety of procedures have been proposed. Some of these procedures are based on explicit physical models of the earthquake source, travel-path and recording site while others lack a strong physical basis and seek only to replicate observations. In addition, there are a number of hybrid methods that seek to combine benefits of different approaches. The various techniques proposed have their adherents and some of them are extensively used to estimate ground motions for engineering design purposes and in seismic hazard research. These methods all have their own advantages and limitations that are not often discussed by their proponents. The purposes of this article are to: summarise existing methods and the most important references, provide a family tree showing the connections between different methods and, most importantly, to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each method.