渭干河流域"2002·7"特大洪水分析

渭干河是塔里木河流域第六大源流, 位于天山西部南麓, 渭干河干流起点有新疆最大的流域性控制工程--克孜尔水库. 2002年7月下旬天山中西部山区出现大暴雨(雪)过程, 渭干河流域山区降水持续时间长达30 h以上, 山区降水量50 mm左右, 导致5条支流和渭干河干流出现有水文记录以来的最大洪峰, 流量超过警戒流量和危险流量的2～3.5倍, 暴雨(雪)过程结束之后, 融雪型洪峰长时间居高不下. 洪水过程中, 各支流以及暴雨与融雪等多种洪峰遭遇现象很明显. 克孜尔水库入库洪峰流量达3 660 m3*s-1, 经水库调洪错峰, 出库峰值流量为1 000 m3*s-1, 削峰率72.7%.     

Wrench tectonics flip at oblique subduction. A model from New Zealand

In eastern North Island New Zealand, oblique subduction of the Pacific Plate beneath the Australian Plate is associated with strain partitioning. Dextral along-strike component of displacement occurred first at Early Miocene major faults within the eastern fore-arc domain. These faults were active from Early Miocene to Pliocene times. Since Pliocene times, most of the movement occurs at western faults such as the Wellington Fault. The latter joins the back-arc domain to the north. The jump of wrench faulting is related to the oblique opening of the back-arc domain. Both phenomena are impeded southwards by the Hikurangi oceanic plateau entering the subduction zone. To cite this article: J. Delteil et al., C. R. Geoscience 335 (2003).     

Old inherited origin for the present near-bimodal topography of Africa

Africa’s landscape is dominated by a manifold of second-order epeirogenic structures superimposed on a first-order bimodal topography. Bivariate regression analysis of Africa’s surface topography shows that this is a complexly folded surface with regionally elevated areas in southern and eastern Africa, and a topographically low northern and western Africa. The apparent spatial relationships between these features are analysed using anomaly correlation between surface topography and free-air gravity anomalies. Occurrences of positively correlated features between gravity and topography in Africa are found to be limited to second-order epeirogenic features. Geophysical modelling and geologic evidence indicate that Africa’s bimodal topography is genetically distinct from these second-order features, and linked to sources as deep as the sublithospheric mantle. The age, measured and modelled elevation of the bimodal topography require that topographic uplift of south-central Africa be episodic. We infer from our findings together with relative sea-level changes, that the near-bimodality of Africa’s topography is an ancient feature inherited at least from upper Paleozoic times. Our reconstructed paleotopography suggests that Africa was largely a low-lying continent dominated by its cratons, and that basement distribution disregards the present-day uplift patterns of Africa.     

Microstructural evolution of the Seridó Belt, NE-Brazil: the effect of two tectonic events on development of c-axis preferred orientation in quartz

The polyphase evolution of the Seridó Belt (NE-Brazil) includes D₁ crust formation at 2.3–2.1 Ga, D₂ thrust tectonics at 1.9 Ga and crustal reworking by D₃ strike-slip shear zones at 600 Ma. Microstructural investigations within mylonites associated with D₂ and D₃ events were used to constrain the tectono-thermal evolution of the belt. D₂ shear zones commenced at deeper crustal levels and high amphibolite facies conditions (600–650 °C) through grain boundary migration, subgrain rotation and operation of quartz c-prism slip. Continued shearing and exhumation of the terrain forced the re-equilibration of high-T fabrics and the switching of slip systems from c-prism to positive and negative a-rhombs. During D₃, enhancement of ductility by dissipation of heat that came from syn-D₃ granites developed wide belts of amphibolite facies mylonites. Continued shearing, uplift and cooling of the region induced D₃ shear zones to act in ductile-brittle regimes, marked by fracturing and development of thinner belts of greenschist facies mylonites. During this event, switching from a-prism to a-basal slip indicates a thermal path from 600 to 350 °C. Therefore, microstructures and quartz c-axis fabrics in polydeformed rocks from the Seridó Belt preserve the record of two major events, which includes contrasting deformation mechanisms and thermal paths.     

Modelling the short-term response of the Greenland ice-sheet to global warming

 A two-dimensional vertically integrated ice flow model has been developed to test the importance of various processes and concepts used for the prediction of the contribution of the Greenland ice-sheet to sea-level rise over the next 350 y (short-term response). The mass balance is modelled by the degree-day method and the energy-balance method. The lithosphere is considered to respond isostatically to a point load and the time evolution of the bedrock follows from a viscous asthenosphere. According to the IPCC-IS92a scenario (with constant aerosols after 1990) the Greenland ice-sheet is likely to cause a global sea level rise of 10.4 cm by 2100 AD. It is shown, however, that the result is sensitive to precise model formulations and that simplifications as used in the sea-level projection in the IPCC-96 report yield less accurate results. Our model results indicate that, on a time scale of a hundred years, including the dynamic response of the ice-sheet yields more mass loss than the fixed response in which changes in geometry are not incorporated. It appears to be important to consider sliding, as well as the fact that climate sensitivity increases for larger perturbations. Variations in predicted sea-level change on a time scale of hundred years depend mostly on the initial state of the ice-sheet. On a time scale of a few hundred years, however, the variability in the predicted melt is dominated by the variability in the climate scenarios. Received: 21 August 1996/Accepted: 12 May 1997     

Comparison of the African and the 6–9 day wave-like disturbance patterns over West-Africa and the tropical Atlantic during summer 1985

Summary Using the ECMWF and NMC analyses, this study documents the composite structures of the African and of the 6–9 day waves. In spite of the fact that the two types of disturbances develop over almost the same area, i.e. Central and West Africa and the tropical Atlantic, during the same season, i.e. summer, in spite of the fact that they have almost the same East-West velocity, i.e. 7–8 degree longitude per day, the structures of the two waves are very different.At 12.5°N, the African wave has an amplitude maximum in the meridional wind component whilst the zonal wind component is almost unperturbed. On the contrary, in the 6–9 day wave, at 12.5°N and also at 12.5°S, the zonal wind component has an amplitude maximum whilst the meridional wind component is very small and there is an amplitude maximum for the meridional wind component at the equator and 20°N.With 9 Figures     

Prediction in hydrogeology: two case histories

An inherent aspect of hydrogeology is the dynamic character of groundwater flow within the more passive lithospheric medium. Prediction therefore requires insight into the spatial pattern of aquifer properties as well as the dynamic character of groundwater flow systems. Both aspects together determine hydrogeological system behaviour in space and time. The spatial characteristics of an aquifer are mainly based on geological and geomorphological structure, whereas the dynamics of the system result predominantly from climate and topography; knowledge of paleoconditions are a prerequisite for sound understanding of present systems. The integration of exploration and forecast is illustrated by two case studies. The first study focuses on an assessment of groundwater resource and their sustainable development in semi-arid Botswana. The second study concerns the impact of land and water management in the Netherlands coastal area on the groundwater regime and its future development, including the redistribution of salt and fresh groundwater on a long time scale.     

Sediment origin and budget in Sepetiba Bay (Brazil) - an approach based on multielemental analysis

 Sediment origin and transport were determined in a shallow 447 km² coastal lagoon in Brazil, using the distribution of major elements in bottom and suspended sediments. Applying multivariate analysis, the sum of normalized concentrations of Ti, Fe, and Al in sediments was selected to trace the terrigenous influence in bottom sediments, whereas Ca, Si, and K were used as indicators of marine influence. Sepetiba Bay bottom sediments are dominated by up to 80% terrigenous inputs. The open bay sediments are enriched in P, Mg, K, and Ca because of the intensive water column primary production. The inner bay forms an independent circulation cell with a predominance of terrigenous sediments. The results suggest a long residence time for particles in the bay, demonstrated by the magnitude of resuspension flux compared to the total sediment input to the bay. Received: 29 May 1996 · Accepted: 17 December 1996     

Analysis of DNAPL infiltration in a medium with a low-permeable lens

In this paper we study the infiltration of DNAPL in a porous medium containing a single low-permeable lens. Our aim is to determine whether or not DNAPL infiltrates into the lens. A key role is played by the capillary pressure: DNAPL cannot infiltrate into the lens unless the capillary pressure exceeds the entry pressure of the lens. In the model this is reflected by an interface condition, the extended capillary pressure condition. To derive analytical approximations we first consider a steady-state DNAPL plume in a homogeneous medium. This results in an estimate of the DNAPL plume width as a function of depth, and an asymptotic solution for small saturations. Assuming that the extent of the lens is much larger than the width of the unperturbed DNAPL plume in the homogeneous medium, we derive an explicit criterion for DNAPL infiltration into the lens in terms of a critical inflow rate. A numerical algorithm is presented in which the extended capillary pressure condition is incorporated. The numerical and analytical results show good qualitative agreement. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.