Modelling of a medium-term dynamics in a shallow tidal sea, based on combined physical and neural network methods

The paper presents an approach towards a medium-term (decades) modelling of water levels and currents in a shallow tidal sea by means of combined hydrodynamic and neural network models. The two-dimensional version of the hydrodynamic model Delft3D, forced with realistic water level and wind fields, is used to produce a two-year-database of water levels and currents in the study area. The linear principal component analysis (PCA) of the results is performed to reveal dominating spatial patterns in the analyzed dataset and to significantly reduce the dimensionality of the data. It is shown that only a few principal components (PCs) are necessary to reconstruct the data with high accuracy (over 95% of the original variance). Feed-forward neural networks are set up and trained to effectively simulate the leading PCs based on water level and wind speed and direction time series in a single, arbitrarily chosen point in the study area. Assuming that the spatial modes resulting from the PCA are ‘universally’ applicable to the data from time periods not modelled with Delft3D, the trained neural networks can be used to very effectively and reliably simulate temporal and spatial variability of water levels and currents in the study area. The approach is shown to be able to accurately reproduce statistical distribution of water levels and currents in various locations inside the study area and thus can be viewed as a reliable complementary tool e.g., for computationally expensive hydrodynamic modelling. Finally, a detailed analysis of the leading PCs is performed to estimate the role of tidal forcing and wind (including its seasonal and annual variability) in shaping the water level and current climate in the study area.     

Estimating suspended sediment concentration using backscatterance from an acoustic Doppler profiling current meter at a site with strong tidal currents

Since 1998, ferry observations have been carried out in the Marsdiep tidal inlet (Dutch Wadden Sea), using amongst other instruments a vessel-mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP). Besides 32 cross-sections a day of current velocity data, the instrument also records the echo intensity, which has been interpreted in terms of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) before (Thorne and Hanes, Cont Shelf Res 22:603–632, 2002). However, we show herein that the random phase scattering model as outlined by Thorne and Hanes (Cont Shelf Res 22:603–632, 2002), predicts unrealistically high values of SSC if the depth-averaged current velocity exceeds approximately 0.7 m/s. Therefore, we extended the random phase scattering model by including scattering by turbulence-induced variability in SSC. The important mechanism is that when SSC fluctuations are present at length, scales of the order of the acoustic wavelength, the phase of the returned signal is no longer random and causes stronger backscatter. Such SSC fluctuations occur as a result of turbulent eddies in combination with an SSC gradient. The extended model was compared with data of two field surveys carried out in the Marsdiep inlet. The extended model, when compared with the classical random phase model, showed a large improvement of accuracy of the estimated SSC, which allows us to apply the model to the ferry data set to analyse suspended sediment transports through the Marsdiep tidal inlet.     

Dictators and their capital cities: Moscow and Berlin in the 1930s

Stalin and Hitler planned major changes in the townscapes of their capital cities. These plans were part of their effort to install highly mobilized despotic regimes that needed a wide-ranging set of symbols to focus allegiance and to impress awe. These plans remained to some extent paper exercises but part of it left significant traces in the contemporary cities, particularly in Moscow. The intended changes showed similarities in their megalomania expressed in plans for a gigantic dome surrounded by a huge public square in the core of the city. There were also differences as regards the type of symbols used due to both dictotors' different roles within their regimes, the degree of didactic intent due to the nature of the commanding ideologies and the level of modernization of both countries, and the diverging versions of antimodernist building style (which they shared with many others elsewhere at the time).     

Liver lesions in winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) from Jamaica Bay,New York: Indications of environmental degradation

Liver sections of winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) collected from Jamaica Bay and Shinnecock Bay, New York, in 1989, were examined microscopically to determine the pervasiveness of liver lesions observed previously in Jamaica Bay winter flounder. Neoplastic lesions were not detected in fish from Jamaica Bay or the Shinnecock Bay reference site. Twenty-two percent of Jamaica Bay winter flounder examined (n=103) had unusual vacuolization of hepatocytes and biliary pre-ductal and ductal cells (referred to hereafter as the vacuolated cell lesion). The lesion, identical to that found in 25% of Jamaica Bay winter flounder examined in 1988, has previously been identified in fishes taken from highly polluted regions of the Atlantic coast (e.g., Boston Harbor, Massachusetts, and Black Rock Harbor, Connecticut). Prevalence of the vacuolated cell lesion in winter flounder from Jamaica Bay was significantly greater (p<0.0001) than in 102 specimens collected from Shinnecock Bay. Current scientific literature indicates vacuolated hepatocytes and cholangiocytes are chronically injured and that the extent of their deformity is consistent with the action of a hepatotoxicant. The high prevalence of vacuolated hepatocytes in Jamaica Bay winter flounder and absence of the lesion in flounder from reference sites strongly supports the hypothesis that this impairment is a manifestation of a toxic condition in at least some portions of Jamaica Bay.     

The effect of distribution of iron-oxyhydroxide grain coatings on the transport of bacterial cells in porous media

 Among the demonstrated processes influencing the transport of bacteria through aquifers, the deposition of cells on mineral surfaces is one of the most important. For example, understanding the transport of introduced bacteria through aquifers is essential to designing some in situ bioremediation schemes. The impact of the presence and distribution of Fe(III)-oxyhydroxide-coated sand grains on bacterial transport through porous media was evaluated in column experiments in which bacteria (short rods; 1.2 μm length) were eluted through columns of quartz sand (0.5–0.6 mm in diameter) for several conditions of chemical heterogeneity of mineral substrate. Fe(III)-oxyhydroxide-coated sand was present as 10% of the mass, and it was arranged in three treatments: (1) homogeneously distributed, and present as a discrete layer (2) at the top and (3) at the bottom of 14-cm-long sand columns. A pulse input of 10⁸ cells ml^–1 was introduced in an artificial groundwater solution flowing at 14 cm h^–1 through the column, and eluted cells were counted. Peak breakthrough occurred at 1.0 pore volume. A large proportion of cells were retained; 14.7–15.8% of the cells were recovered after three pore volumes of solution had eluted through clean quartz sand, and only 2.1–4.0% were recovered from the Fe(III)-oxyhydroxide-coated sand mixtures. The three physical arrangements of the chemical heterogeneity resulted in essentially the same breakthrough of cells, indicating that the spatial distribution of iron coating does not affect the transport of bacteria. The results of the column transport experiments, which mimic hydrogeological conditions encountered in field problems, are consistent with our mechanistic understanding of bacterial sorption. Received: 10 April 1996 · Accepted: 17 February 1997     

The geochemical environment

Much of the assessment of high-level radioactive waste repositories will be accomplished through the application of geochemical models. Such models will be used to understand geochemical processes in the repository and the surrounding environment. The purpose of this paper is to review the nature of the currently available geochemical models. The kinds of calculations that a number of these models perform include aqueous speciation, mineral solubility, and mass transfer reactions. Presently, there are limitations on the success of calculation of adsorption reactions and rate-limited reactions. Ongoing development of geochemical models requires that more work be done to compile thermodynamic and kinetic data, incorporate additional geochemical processes and parameters into existing codes, and assess the accuracy of all simulations through validation studies and sensitivity analyses.     

Hydraulic Properties of Stony Vadose Zonesa

Hydraulic properties of saturated and unsaturated stony soils were studied on a 3.35 m long column, 1.24 m in diameter, filled with alternating sand and boulder layers. The boulders averaged 6.2 × 15 × 20 cm in size and were laid down on their flat side. Tensiometers and a neutron probe access tube were placed in the column for measuring pressure heads and water contents, respectively. Saturated conditions were obtained by ponding the column. The resulting hydraulic conductivity K was 5.1 m/day. This value could also be calculated from the measured K for the sand alone on separate samples, using a simple equation that takes into account the void ratio of the sand alone and that of the boulder-sand mixture. Unsaturated K was determined by applying water at less than ponded infiltration rates. Resulting relations between the unsaturated K and water content or negative pressure head could also be estimated from the relation between unsaturated K and pressure head for the sand alone and the calculated saturated K of the boulder-sand mixture. The method of Millington and Quirk for calculating the relation between unsaturated K and water content also gave reasonable results. The dispersivity of the boulder-sand column was 18 times that of the sand alone. Pore velocity was accurately estimated as the Darcy velocity divided by the volumetric water content. Hydraulic properties of stony vadose zones are difficult to determine. This work shows that they can be estimated from K relations measured in the laboratory on samples of the soil between the rocks. Knowledge of hydraulic properties of vadose zones is important in predicting movement of water and pollutants to the underlying ground water.