A framework for testing dynamic classification of vulnerable scenarios in ensemble water supply projections

Climatic Change - Recent water resources planning studies have proposed climate adaptation strategies in which infrastructure and policy actions are triggered by observed thresholds or...     

Prediction of Flyrock in Mine Blasting: A New Computational Intelligence Approach

Natural Resources Research - Blasting is the predominant rock fragmentation technique in civil constructions, underground and surface mines. Flyrock is the unwanted throw of rock fragments during...     

Tectonic evolution of the Cape and Karoo basins of South Africa

The Cape and Karoo basins formed within the continental interior of Gondwana. Subsidence resulted from the vertical motion of rigid basement blocks and intervening crustal faults. Each basin episode records a three-stage evolution consisting of crustal uplift, fault-controlled subsidence, and long periods of regional subsidence largely unaccompanied by faulting or erosional truncation. The large-scale episodes of subsidence were probably the result of lithospheric deflection due to subduction-driven mantle flow. The early Paleozoic Cape basin records the combined effects of a north-dipping intra-crustal décollement (a late Neoproterozoic suture) and a right-stepping offset between thick Rio de la Plata craton and Namaqua basement. Following the Saldanian orogeny, a suite of small rift basins and their post-rift drape formed at this releasing stepover. Great thicknesses of quartz sandstone (Ordovician–Silurian) and mudstone (Devonian) accumulation are attributed to subsidence by rheological weakening and mantle flow. In contrast, the Karoo basin is a cratonic cover that mimics the underlying basement blocks. The Permian Ecca and lower Beaufort groups were deposited in a southward-deepening ramp syncline by extensional decoupling on the intra-crustal décollement. Reflection seismic and deep-burial diagenetic studies indicate that the Cape orogeny started in the Early Triassic. Deformation was partitioned into basement-involved strike-slip faults and thin-skinned thrusting. Uplift of the Namaqua basement resulted in erosion of the Beaufort cover. East of the Cape fold belt, contemporaneous subsidence and tilting of the Natal basement created a late Karoo transtensional foreland basin, the Stormberg depocentre. Early Jurassic tectonic resetting and continental flood basalts terminated the Karoo basin.     

Travel time controls the magnitude of nitrate discharge in groundwater bypassing the riparian zone to a stream on Virginia's coastal plain

Groundwater that bypasses the riparian zone by travelling along deep flow paths may deliver high concentrations of fertilizer‐derived NO₃^? to streams, or it may be impacted by the NO₃^? removal process of denitrification in streambed sediments. In a study of a small agricultural catchment on the Atlantic coastal plain of Virginia's eastern shore, we used seepage meters deployed in the streambed to measure specific discharge of groundwater and its solute concentrations for various locations and dates. We used values of Cl^? concentration to discriminate between bypass water recharged distal to the stream and that contained high NO₃^? but low Cl^? concentrations and riparian‐influenced water recharged proximal to the stream that contained low NO₃^? and high Cl^? concentrations. The travel time required for bypass water to transit the 30‐cm‐thick, microbially active denitrifying zone in the streambed determined the extent of NO₃^? removal, and hydraulic conductivity determined travel time through the streambed sediments. At all travel times greater than 2 days, NO₃^? removal was virtually complete. Comparison of the timescales for reaction and transport through the streambed sediments in this system confirmed that the predominant control on nitrate flux was travel time rather than denitrification rate coefficients. We conclude that extensive denitrification can occur in groundwater that bypasses the riparian zone, but a residence time in biologically active streambed sediments sufficient to remove a large fraction of the NO₃^? is only achieved in relatively low‐conductivity porous media. Instead of viewing them as separate, the streambed and riparian zone should be considered an integrated NO₃^? removal unit. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Astronomical calibration of the Matuyama-Brunhes boundary: Consequences for magnetic remanence acquisition in marine carbonates and the Asian loess sequences

We have compiled 19 records from marine carbonate cores in which the Matuyama-Brunhes boundary (MBB) has been reasonably well constrained within the astronomically forced stratigraphic framework using oxygen isotopes. By correlation of the δ¹⁸O data to a timescale based on astronomical forcing, we estimate astronomical ages for each of the MBB horizons. In all but one record the MBB occurs within Stage 19.

Most magnetostratigraphic sections in Asian Loess place the MBB within a loess interval. Since loess deposition is presumed to be associated with glacial intervals, loess horizons should correspond to even-numbered oxygen isotope stages. A glacial age for the MBB is at odds with the results presented here, which firmly place the MBB within interglacial Stage 19. Inconsistency among the many loess sections and between the loess and the marine records suggests that the magnetic interpretation of loess sections may be more complicated than hitherto supposed.

The mean of the Stage 19 age estimates for the MBB is 777.9 ± 1.8 (N = 18). Inclusion of the single Stage 20 age results in a mean of 778.8 ± 2.5 (N = 19). The astronomical age estimate of the MBB compares favorably with an (unweighted) mean of 778.2 ± 3.5 (N = 10) from a compilation of ⁴⁰Ar/39^Ar results of transitional lava flows. Combining the two independent data sets yields a grand mean of 778.0 ± 1.7 (N = 28).

The new compilation shows virtually no trend in placement of the MBB within isotope Stage 19 as a function of sediment accumulation rate. We interpret this to mean that the average depth of remanence acquisition is within a few centimeters of the sediment-water interface.

Separating the cores into two geographic regions (an Indo-Pacific-Caribbean [IPC] Group and an Atlantic Group) results in a significant difference in the position of the mid-point of the reversal with respect to the astronomical time scale. The data presented here suggest a difference of several thousand years between the two regions. This observation could be caused by systematic differences between the two regions in sedimentation rate within the interval of interest, systematic differences in remanence acquisition, or by genuine differences in the timing of the directional changes between the two regions.     

Global climatic change,hurricanes, and a tropical forest

Most, if not all forests in the Caribbean are subject to occasional disturbances from hurricanes. If current general circulation model (GCM) predictions are correct, with doubled atmospheric CO₂ (2 × CO₂), the tropical Atlantic will be between 1 °C and 4 °C warmer than it is today. With such a warming, more than twice as many hurricanes per year could be expected in the Caribbean. Furthermore, Emanuael (1987) indicates that in a warmed world the destructive potential of Atlantic hurricanes could be increased by 40% to 60%. While speculative, these increases would dramatically change the disturbance regimes affecting tropical forests in the region and might alter forest structure and composition. Global warming impacts through increased hurricane damage on Caribbean forests are presented.An individual tree, gap dynamics forest ecosystem model was used to simulate the range of possible hurricane disturbance regimes which could affect the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico. Model storm frequency ranged from no storms at all up to one storm per year; model storm intensity varied from no damage up to 100% mortality of trees. The model does not consider the effects of changing temperature and rainfall patterns on the forest. Simulation results indicate that with the different hurricane regimes a range of forest types are possible, ranging from mature forest with large trees, to an area in which forest trees are never allowed to reach maturity.     

Aluminum-26 in meteorites—VII. Ureilites,their unique radiation history

Cosmogenic ²⁶A1 activities have been measured by γ-γ coincidence counting in the three ureilites which had not previously been studied. The values in dpm/kg are: Dingo Pup Donga, 38.4 ± 2.4; North Haig, 39.3 ± 4.8; Dyalpur, 55.8 ± 4.8. Five of the six known ureilites thus have lower ²⁶A1 contents, 63 per cent to 77 per cent, than the calculated saturation values, in marked contrast to most other stony meteorites. This cannot be attributed to short cosmic ray exposure ages. Nor do size and depth effects account for the narrow range of ²⁶A1 activities, because a nuclear particle track study indicates that preatmospheric radii were highly variable, from ≥ 40 cm for Goalpara to only a few cm for Dingo Pup Donga. By default, the most likely explanation is that the ureilites had much smaller or much larger orbits than all other stony meteorites.     

Analysis and modeling of the seasonal South China Sea temperature cycle using remote sensing

The present paper describes the analysis and modeling of the South China Sea (SCS) temperature cycle on a seasonal scale. It investigates the possibility to model this cycle in a consistent way while not taking into account tidal forcing and associated tidal mixing and exchange. This is motivated by the possibility to significantly increase the model’s computational efficiency when neglecting tides. The goal is to develop a flexible and efficient tool for seasonal scenario analysis and to generate transport boundary forcing for local models. Given the significant spatial extent of the SCS basin and the focus on seasonal time scales, synoptic remote sensing is an ideal tool in this analysis. Remote sensing is used to assess the seasonal temperature cycle to identify the relevant driving forces and is a valuable source of input data for modeling. Model simulations are performed using a three-dimensional baroclinic-reduced depth model, driven by monthly mean sea surface anomaly boundary forcing, monthly mean lateral temperature, and salinity forcing obtained from the World Ocean Atlas 2001 climatology, six hourly meteorological forcing from the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting ERA-40 dataset, and remotely sensed sea surface temperature (SST) data. A sensitivity analysis of model forcing and coefficients is performed. The model results are quantitatively assessed against climatological temperature profiles using a goodness-of-fit norm. In the deep regions, the model results are in good agreement with this validation data. In the shallow regions, discrepancies are found. To improve the agreement there, we apply a SST nudging method at the free water surface. This considerably improves the model’s vertical temperature representation in the shallow regions. Based on the model validation against climatological in situ and SST data, we conclude that the seasonal temperature cycle for the deep SCS basin can be represented to a good degree. For shallow regions, the absence of tidal mixing and exchange has a clear impact on the model’s temperature representation. This effect on the large-scale temperature cycle can be compensated to a good degree by SST nudging for diagnostic applications.