Dynamic features in the western Baltic Sea investigated using NOAA-AVHRR data

Summary The western part of the Baltic Sea is a shallow transition area which is characterized by the water exchange between the Baltic and the North Sea. The dynamic processes in this area are forced by sea-level differences between the North Sea and Baltic Sea as well as by local wind and freshwater input. The response patterns are modified by Earth's rotation, bathymetric structures and the alignment of the coast. Series of satellite images permit synoptical views of these pattern and their temporal and spatial development.Sea surface temperature maps derived from infrared data supplied by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellite-borne Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) are used to show various features like upwelling filaments and eddies.The River Oder discharges into the Pomeranian Bight is the main source of freshwater input into the western Baltic. The variability of this inflow and of the affected coastal seas is being presented in relation to the prevailing meteorological conditions.

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Dynamische Besonderheiten in der westlichen Ostsee untersucht anhand von NOAA-AVHRR-Daten

Zusammenfassung Die westliche Ostsee ist ein flaches Übergangsgebiet, das durch den Wasseraustausch zwischen Nord- und Ostsee charakterisiert ist. Die dynamischen Prozesse werden in diesem Gebiet durch Wasserstandsdifferenzen zwischen Nord- und Ostsee, durch den lokalen Wind und die Süßwasserzufuhr getrieben. Die Reaktionsmuster werden modifiziert durch die Erdrotation, die Bathymetrie und den Küstenverlauf.Serien von Satellitendaten gestatten die synoptische Betrachtung dieser Muster und ihrer zeitlichen und räumlichen Entwicklung.Karten der Wasseroberflächentemperatur (SST), abgeleitet aus Infrarotdaten des Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), werden genutzt, um verschiedene Strukturen wie Auftrieb, Filamente und Wirbel zu präsentieren. Das Radiometer wird durch die National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) auf Wettersatelliten betrieben.Der Flußeintrag der Oder in die Pommersche Bucht ist die bedeutendste Süßwasserzufuhr in die westliche Ostsee. Die Veränderlichkeit des Einstroms und die beeinflußten Gebiete sind in Abhängigkeit von den meteorologischen Bedingungen dargestellt.

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Recherche du caractéristiques dynamiques en mer Baltique ouest á l'aide de données NOAA-AVHRR

Résumé La partie ouest de la mer Baltique est une zone de transition de profondeur réduite, caractérisée par un échange des eaux entre la mer du Nord et la mer Baltique.Dans cette zone, les processus dynamiques proviennent des différences de niveau de la mer du Nord et de la mer Baltique, des vents locaux et de l'apport en eau douce. Les modèles créés sont modifiés à partir de la rotation terrestre, de la bathymétrie et de la morphologie côtière.Les données satellite permettent d'établir une étude synoptique de ces processus dans l'ensemble de la zone ainsi que leur développement spatio-temporel au moyen de séries.Des cartes de température superficielle (SST) obtenues à partir des données radiométriques infrarouges AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) sont utilisées pour présenter des exemples SST caractéristiques de résultats de processus dynamiques de l'ouest de la mer Baltique. Les données radiométriques proviennent du National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) à partir de satellites météorologiques.La dépendance des développements spatio-temporels de modèles en fonction des conditions météorologiques est discutée à partir de scènes et de séries particulières.Des exemples d'upwelling devant les côtes allemandes, suédoises et polonaises ainsi que des fronts, des filaments et des tourbillons sont présentés.La plus grande partie de l'apport en eau douce à l'ouest de la mer Baltique provient du fleuve Oder, en baie de Poméranie. L'influence des facteurs météorologiques sur la variation de ce déversement et sur les zones influencées est présentée.

     

Shrubland encroachment in southern New Mexico,U.S.A.: An analysis of desertification processes in the American southwest

The area dominated by the shrubs creosotebush (Larrea tridentata) and mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa) in the American southwest has increased several-fold over the last century, with a corresponding decrease in areal coverage of productive grasslands and increased surface soil erosion throughout the region. The factors thought to be responsible for this regional shift in vegetation are: (1) overgrazing by domestic livestock; (2) fire suppression; and (3) historical changes in climate. We examine the evidence concerning each of these factors and develop a synthetic model outlining the principles affecting shrubland encroachment, which focuses on life history characteristics of the dominant shrubs and a number of positive biotic and edaphic feedback mechanisms contributing to their establishment and persistence. We conclude that the expansion of shrub dominance that has occurred over the last century may have been triggered by extreme live-stock overgrazing at the end of the nineteenth century, which coincided with rainfall regimes that were unfavorable for perennial grass growth. Hence, the landscape we observe today may be a product of positive feedback mechanisms triggered over a century ago by management practices that were uninformed with regard to the importance of historical climate patterns and the life history characteristics of important rangeland species. Our consideration of these issues also addresses potential land surface - climate interactions that could occur as a result of regional alterations in vegetation dominance and physiognomy.     

Meteorology and haze structure during AGASP-II,Part 1: Alaskan Arctic flights, 2–10 April 1986

The second Arctic Gas and Aerosol Sampling Program (AGASP-II) was conducted across the Alaskan and Canadian Arctic in April 1986, to study the in situ aerosol, and the chemical and optical properties of Arctic haze. The NOAA WP-3D aircraft, with special instrumentation added, made six flights during AGASP-II. Measurements of wind, pressure, temperature, ozone, water vapor, condensation nuclei (CN) concentration, and aerosol scattering extinction (b_sp) were used to determine the location of significant haze layers. The measurements made on the first three flights, over the Arctic Ocean north of Barrow and over the Beaufort Sea north of Barter Island, Alaska are discussed in detail in this report of the first phase of AGASP II. In the Alaskan Arctic the WP-3D detected a large and persistent region of haze between 960 and 750 mb, in a thermally stable layer, on 2, 8, and 9 April 1986. At its most dense, the haze contained CN concentrations >10,000 cm^–3 and b_sp of 80×10^–6 m^–1 suggesting active SO₂ to H₂SO₄ gas-to-particle conversion. Calculations based upon observed SO₂ concentrations and ambient relative humidities suggest that 10⁴–10⁵ small H₂SO₄ droplets could have been produced in the haze layers. High concentrations of sub-micron H₂SO₄ droplets were collected in haze. Ozone concentrations were 5–10 ppb higher in the haze layers than in the surrounding troposphere. Outside the regions of haze, CN concentrations ranged from 100 to 400 cm^–3 and b_sp values were about (20–40)×10^–6 m^–1. Air mass trajectories were computed to depict the air flow upwind of regions in which haze was observed. In two cases the back trajectories and ground measurements suggested the source to be in central Europe.     

The social forecasting industry

This is an essay and report on the social forecasting industry-the collection of individuals and organizations, both profit and nonprofit, supplying forecasts of social futures in direct exchage for pay. It begins with a review of the industry's size, growth, and scope; contrary to initial impressions, the industry is by any comparative standard quite small, occupying a precarious niche in the much larger market for statistical services. Hallmark methodologies of the industry, including the Delphi method and cross-impact analysis, are discussed extensively. These methodologies are linked to a domain assumption of the industry—namely, that the complexities of the social world are best rendered tractable by forming consensuses of experts' judgments. It is argued that the key characteristic differentiating the social forecasting industry from forecasting in the social sciences proper—the existence of a direct, paying market for services—is an important element in maintaining the most salient methodological and product differences between the two arenas: The marketplace for forecasts is not the same as the marketplace for ideas.     

An experimental investigation of volatile exsolution in evolving magma chambers

Previous laboratory experiments investigating the fluid dynamics of replenished magma chambers have been extended to model effects resulting from the release of gas. Turbulent transfer of heat between a layer of dense, hot and volatile-rich mafic magma overlying cooler more evolved magma can lead to crystallization and exsolution of volatiles in the lower layer. Small gas bubbles can cause the bulk density to decrease to that of the upper layer and thus produce sudden overturning and initiate mixing, followed by further exsolution of gas and explosive eruption. These processes have been modelled in the laboratory using a chemical reaction between sodium or potassium carbonate and nitric acid to release small bubbles of CO₂. We have investigated both the initial overturning produced by gas release in the lower layer, and the subsequent evolution of gas due to intimate mixing of the two layers. The latter experiments, in which the reactants remained isolated in the two layers until overturning occurred, demonstrated unambiguously that the fluxes of chemical components across the interfaces between convecting layers are very slow compared to the flux of heat. This shows that the evolution of layers of magma of different origins and composition can take place nearly independently of each other. The magmas can coexist in the same stratified chamber, until their bulk densities become equal and they mix together. The processes illustrated in these experiments could occur in H₂O-bearing magmas such as in the calcalkaline association and in CO₂-bearing mafic magmas such as in silica undersaturated suites.     

Investigation of NaCl deliquescence in porous substrates using RH-XRD

We report on the use of X-ray diffractometry under controlled conditions of temperature and relative humidity (RH-XRD) for the investigation of NaCl deliquescence in the pore space of glass filter frits, which were used as model substrates. The study confirms that RH-XRD is an appropriate experimental technique for the in situ observation of phase transformation in porous materials. It is used for an investigation of both the deliquescence kinetics and the deliquescence humidity within pores of different median pore diameter. Several major influences affecting deliquescence rates in the pore space close to the surface of a porous material are discussed. It appears that quite short-term variation of ambient relative humidity, e.g., typical daily fluctuations, might induce damaging deliquescence–crystallization cycles within the pore space of building materials. In agreement with theoretical considerations it was found that confinement of NaCl crystals in pores with median diameters in the range 1.4–70 μm does not affect the deliquescence humidity of the salt.     

Fossil Rotifers and the Early Colonization of an Antarctic Lake

Early Holocene sediments from a continental Antarctic lake (Ace Lake, Vestfold Hills, East Antarctica) contained abundant fossil rotifers of the genus Notholca. The fossil is similar to specimens of Notholca sp. present in modern-day Ace Lake and other fresh and brackish lakes of the Vestfold Hills. Cyanobacteria and protists (chrysophyte cysts, dinoflagellate cysts, and rhizopod tests) were also recovered from the core samples. These sediments were deposited early in the freshwater phase of Ace Lake, soon after deglaciation of the area. The occurrence of this trophically diverse assemblage of organisms at an early stage in the evolution of the lake suggests either that they were part of an endemic Antarctic flora and fauna which pre-dated the last glacial maximum and survived in glacial refugia or that efficient intercontinental dispersal had occurred.     

Reconstruction from three orthographic views

Summary As Ullman (1979) showed, an object can be reconstructed uniquely from three orthographic views, if at least four homologous tripels of points are known. If only three homologous tripels of points are observed, the reconstruction problem has a finite number of solutions (cf. Huang and Lee (1989)). In this article the 3-point-problem is reduced to a quadratic problem: If the squares of the sides of the considered triangles are interpreted as coordinates in a three-dimensional parameter space, the reconstruction problem is equivalent to the determination of the intersection of three parallelly shifted cones subject to certain constraints.