Statistical analysis of isotopic ratios in MORB: the mantle blob cluster model and the convective regime of the mantle

A statistical examination of isotopic distributions for MORB from various ocean ridges leads to the “blob cluster model”, in which the oceanic crust accreting at ridges results from the mixing of two components within the ascending mantle. These are (1) upper mantle material and (2) discrete rising blobs of more radiogenic material. The blobs are fractionated to a variable degree and are distributed in the upper mantle circulation in a manner that is related to the spreading rate.(1) Themean values of the isotopic distributions allow us to calculate the probabilities of the two types of material within the mantle. The results show that theproportion of asthenospheric material in the mixtureincreases with the spreading rate, in agreement with the hypothesis of blob dilution within the upper mantle convection.Mass fluxes can be estimated for the rising blobs from these probabilities, which depend on the respective concentrations in the sources of the two types of material. If the blobs originate in the lower mantle, this flux estimation would suggest that a significant part of the lower mantle has been injected into the upper mantle during earth history.(2) Thestandard deviations of the distributions depend on the “efficiency” of the mixing process:the more imbricated are the asthenospheric and blob materials in the mixture,the smaller is theisotopic spread. This efficiency parameter is shown to increase with the spreading rate, as already suggested by previous comparisons between the East Pacific Rise and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Moreover, this feature may also be correlated with other data such as ridge bathymetric variations.     

Uncertainty analysis in statistical modeling of extreme hydrological events

With the increase of both magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events such as drought and flooding, the significance of adequately modeling hydrological extreme events is fully recognized. Estimation of extreme rainfall/flood for various return periods is of prime importance for hydrological design or risk assessment. However, due to knowledge and data limitation, uncertainty involved in extrapolating beyond available data is huge. In this paper, different sources of uncertainty in statistical modeling of extreme hydrological events are studied in a systematic way. This is done by focusing on several key uncertainty sources using three different case studies. The chosen case studies highlight a number of projects where there have been questions regarding the uncertainty in extreme rainfall/flood estimation. The results show that the uncertainty originated from the methodology is the largest and could be >40% for a return period of 200 years, while the uncertainty caused by ignoring the dependence among multiple hydrological variables seems the smallest. In the end, it is highly recommended that uncertainty in modeling extreme hydrological events be fully recognized and incorporated into a formal hydrological extreme analysis.     

China’s national carbon emissions trading scheme: lessons from the pilot emission trading schemes,academic literature,and known policy details

Upon completion, China’s national emissions trading scheme (C-ETS) will be the largest carbon market in the world. Recent research has evaluated China’s seven pilot ETSs launched from 2013 on, and academic literature on design aspects of the C-ETS abounds. Yet little is known about the specific details of the upcoming C-ETS. This article combines currently understood details of China’s national carbon market with lessons learned in the pilot schemes as well as from the academic literature. Our review follows the taxonomy of Emissions Trading in Practice: A Handbook on Design and Implementation (Partnership for Market Readiness & International Carbon Action Partnership. (2016). Retrieved from www.worldbank.org): The 10 categories are: scope, cap, distribution of allowances, use of offsets, temporal flexibility, price predictability, compliance and oversight, stakeholder engagement and capacity building, linking, implementation and improvements.

Key policy insights

• Accurate emissions data is paramount for both design and implementation, and its availability dictates the scope of the C-ETS.

• The stakeholder consultative process is critical for effective design, and China is able to build on its extensive experience through the pilot ETSs.

• Current policies and positions on intensity targets and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) credits constrain the market design of the C-ETS.

• Most critical is the nature of the cap. The currently discussed rate-based cap with ex post adjustment is risky. Instead, an absolute, mass-based emissions cap coupled with the conditional use of permits would allow China to maintain flexibility in the carbon market while ensuring a limit on CO₂ emissions.

     

Experimental investigation of turbulent processes in a complex terrain

In the present paper the first results of the international KOPEX-86 experiment are presented. The experiment took place at the Kopisty Atmospheric Observatory of the Institute of Physics of the Atmosphere in Prague as part of a special project of the Commission of the Academy of Sciences in Planetary Geophysics (KAPG) in June and July 1986. Using 4 ultrasonic anemometers at 4 levels up to 80 m, Doppler-SODAR and wind-, temperature- and radiation balance gradients from 2 to 80 m, a complex investigation of the atmospheric boundary layer in an industrial area was made. The authors present the first results of

Two and Half Dimensional Simulation of Ridge Effects on the Ground Motion Characteristics

— Seismic responses of weathered and non-weathered ridge models were simulated to study the ridge effects on the ground motion characteristics. The range of ridge slope from 19.98° to 45° was considered to produce a possible set of generalized results. 2.5-D modeling based on parsimonious staggered grid approximation of elastodynamic wave equations was adopted in simulations. Computed results reveal an increase of amplitude of incoming waves with both elevation and the slope of the ridge. Further, the characteristics of surface waves are highly ridge slope dependent. The analysis of responses of weathered and non-weathered ridge models reveals that ridge has caused a strong generation of surface waves near its top. The surface waves are not dominating on the top of the ridge but at some lower elevation. The increase of weathering of ridge further intensified the ridge effect. Analysis in frequency domain, based on spectral ratio method, does not indicate any pattern in the spectral amplification factor and is very much sensitive to slope, source focal mechanism and location. However, on an average there is a continuous decrease of amplification with slope in the vertical component and increase in the transverse component, and it is increasing in the radial component up to slope =38.0° and thereafter decreasing.     

Palaeomagnetism of (late Vendian-earliest Cambrian) minor alkaline intrusions, Fen Complex, southeast Norway

Emplacement of the Fen central complex (603-565 Ma) within the Fennoscandian Shield in southeast Norway was preceded by the emplacement of numerous minor alkaline intrusions into the surrounding gneisses. A palaeomagnetic sample of 28 of these bodies has identified a predominant SSE negative remanence carried by magnetite in some bodies and hematite in others. A sporadic high blocking temperature component appears to record localised effects associated with the development of the Oslo rift and igneous province to the east, but no major magnetic overprinting by post-emplacement events is recognised. The stable magnetisation vectors for twenty sites comprise a coherent population with those for two sites reversed with respect to the remainder; they yield a mean direction ofD = 210°,I = 44° (₉₅ = 6.4°) and a palaeomagnetic pole at 324°E, 50°S (dpdm=4.9°7.9°). The difference between the pole position for this early phase of the Fen magmatism and that for the late metasomatic rødberg (322°E, 63°S) in the interior of the complex is interpreted in terms of continental movement during the late Vendian-earliest Cambrian interval of alkaline activity here. The defined direction of APW movement continues a motion recognised from other Vendian data but subsequent movements during Lower Cambrian times are unclear.     

Phase equilibria modelling and LASS monazite petrochronology: P–T–t constraints on the evolution of the Priest River core complex,northern Idaho

Phase equilibria modelling, laser‐ablation split‐stream (LASS)‐ICP‐MS petrochronology and garnet trace‐element geochemistry are integrated to constrain the P–T–t history of the footwall of the Priest River metamorphic core complex, northern Idaho. Metapelitic, migmatitic gneisses of the Hauser Lake Gneiss contain the peak assemblage garnet + sillimanite + biotite ± muscovite + plagioclase + K‐feldspar ± rutile ± ilmenite + quartz. Interpreted P–T paths predict maximum pressures and peak metamorphic temperatures of ~9.6–10.3 kbar and ~785–790 °C. Monazite and xenotime ²⁰⁸Pb/²³²Th dates from porphyroblast inclusions indicate that metamorphism occurred at c. 74–54 Ma. Dates from HREE‐depleted monazite formed during prograde growth constrain peak metamorphism at c. 64 Ma near the centre of the complex, while dates from HREE‐enriched monazite constrain the timing of garnet breakdown during near‐isothermal decompression at c. 60–57 Ma. Near‐isothermal decompression to ~5.0–4.4 kbar was followed by cooling and further decompression. The youngest, HREE‐enriched monazite records leucosome crystallization at mid‐crustal levels c. 54–44 Ma. The northernmost sample records regional metamorphism during the emplacement of the Selkirk igneous complex (c. 94–81 Ma), Cretaceous–Tertiary metamorphism and limited Eocene exhumation. Similarities between the Priest River complex and other complexes of the northern North American Cordillera suggest shared regional metamorphic and exhumation histories; however, in contrast to complexes to the north, the Priest River contains less partial melt and no evidence for diapiric exhumation. Improved constraints on metamorphism, deformation, anatexis and exhumation provide greater insight into the initiation and evolution of metamorphic core complexes in the northern Cordillera, and in similar tectonic settings elsewhere.