Computing cross-isotherm volume transports from ocean temperature observations and surface heat fluxes,with application to the Barents Sea inflow

A method for determining the cross-isotherm ocean transport from surface heat flux and ocean temperature data is derived. By computing the volume flux through the isotherm that extend from 19°E, 74°N to the eastern part of the Kola Peninsula, the flow through the western entrance of the Barents Sea south of 74°N is estimated. Using three different surface heat flux datasets, the inflow is found to range from 2.9 to 4.5 Sv in winter (October–March) and from 0.4 to 1.4 Sv in summer (April–September; 1 Sv=10⁶ m³ s⁻¹). The seasonal variations are stronger than indicated by results from direct current measurements, probably because the seasonal cycle of the surface heat fluxes is overestimated along the considered isotherm. The annual mean inflow ranges from 1.9 to 2.2 Sv during a cold period (1986–1988), and from 2.4 to 3.0 Sv during a warm period (1990–1992), close to reported observations.     

Estimation of the Spatial Variation in Evapotranspiration based on Landsat TM and NOAA Satellite Imagery

Søgaard, Henrik: Estimation of the Spatial Variation in Evapotranspiration based on Landsat TM and NOAA Satellite Imagery. Geografisk Tidsskrift 92: 80–85. Copenhagen 1992.

During the last decade, the use of satellite imagery for monitoring water and energy budgets has gained increasing interest. Based on ground reference data collected above a barley field located near Viborg in Jutland, the so-called simplified relationship between net radiation, temperature, and evapotranspiration was examined. It was found that the difference between evapotranspiration and net radiation depends on both the temperature difference between the surface and the air, and the surface roughness. The derived relationship was applied for monitoring evapotranspiration on the basis of surface temperature measured by the NOAA- satellites. This paper will present this study and examine the resolution problem caused by the field size being less in area than the 1 km by 1 km covered by a single NOAA picture element. For a selected day in July, this was done by comparing the NOAA data with Landsat TM-data which has a 120 m resolution in the thermal band.     

Brittle-plastic deformation in initially dry rocks at fluid-present conditions: transient behaviour of feldspar at mid-crustal levels

We present detailed microstructural and chemical analyses from an initially dry anorthositic rock deformed during wet amphibolite facies conditions. Three different domains representing the microstructural variation of the deformed samples are investigated in detail in terms of fracture morphology and mode, grain characteristics and chemistry of present phases. Results show transient deformational behaviour where a close interaction between brittle, plastic and fluid-assisted deformation mechanisms can be observed. Our analysis allows us to describe the succession, interrelationships and effects of active mechanisms with progressively increasing strain in three so-called stages. In Stage 1, initial fracturing along cleavage planes promoted fluid influx that caused fragmentation and chemical reactions, producing fine-grained mineral assemblages in the fractures. Deformation twins and dislocations developed in clast pieces due to stress relaxation. Passive rotation of conjugate fracture sets and interconnection of intracrystalline fractures formed micro-shear-zones, constituting Stage 2. Microstructures and grain relationships indicate the activity and fluctuation between fracturing, dissolution-precipitation creep, grain boundary sliding and locally dislocation creep, reflecting the transient behaviour of brittle and plastic deformation mechanisms. Further rotation and widening of fractures into overall foliation parallel shear-bands (Stage 3) promoted strain partitioning into these areas through increased fluid influx, influence of fluid-assisted grain boundary sliding, phase mixing and presence of weak phases such as white mica. We suggest that local differences in fluid availability, volume fraction of weak phases produced by fluid present metamorphic reactions coupled with volume increase and local variations in stress concentration induced transient brittle-plastic behaviour. The studied shear-zone represents an example of the transformation of a rigid dry rock to a soft wet rock during deformation through syntectonic fracturing.     

Temperature affects the timing of spawning and migration of North Sea mackerel

Climate change accentuates the need for knowing how temperature impacts the life history and productivity of economically and ecologically important species of fish. We examine the influence of temperature on the timing of the spawning and migrations of North Sea Mackerel using data from larvae CPR surveys, egg surveys and commercial landings from Danish coastal fisheries in the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and inner Danish waters. The three independent sources of data all show that there is a significant relationship between the timing of spawning and sea surface temperature. Large mackerel are shown to arrive at the feeding areas before and leave later than small mackerel and the sequential appearance of mackerel in each of the feeding areas studied supports the anecdotal evidence for an eastward post-spawning migration. Occasional commercial catches taken in winter in the Sound N, Kattegat and Skagerrak together with catches in the first quarter IBTS survey furthermore indicate some overwintering here. Significant relationships between temperature and North Sea mackerel spawning and migration have not been documented before. The results have implications for mackerel resource management and monitoring. An increase in temperature is likely to affect the timing and magnitude of the growth, recruitment and migration of North Sea mackerel with subsequent impacts on its sustainable exploitation.     

A micro-Mössbauer study of chromites included in diamond and other mantle-related rocks

Oxygen fugacity ( $ f_{{{\text{O}}_{ 2} }} $ f O 2 ) is a fundamental but little known intensive variable in mantle processes. It influences the P/T position of a mantle solidus and the composition of mantle-derived melts and fluids and constrains mantle-core equilibria and a number of geophysical properties of the mantle. An important source of information on oxidation states is the ferric–ferrous iron ratio in mantle spinels. Since the magnetite component is low in mantle spinels, normal analytical errors translate into considerable $ f_{{{\text{O}}_{ 2} }} $ f O 2 uncertainties. In this study, we analyzed the Fe³⁺–Fe_tot ratio of chromites present as inclusions in diamond and other mantle-related occurrences by point-source Mössbauer spectroscopy using single-crystal absorbers as well as conventional Mössbauer spectroscopy using powder absorbers. The studied spinels have been previously analyzed by single-crystal X-ray diffraction and electron microprobe. The ferric–ferrous ratios found are normally similar to the different techniques apart from some samples where a large number of grains have been used for the analyses (powder absorbers). The general agreement between the different techniques allows us to conclude that the studied chromites are stoichiometric. However, conventional Mössbauer spectroscopy on powder absorbers should be conducted with great care, since the method requires a relatively large amount of sample material. Spinel frequently occurs as small grains, and the large number of crystals required may possess different degrees of oxidation/alteration and, consequently, different ferric–ferrous ratio leading to possible errors in the interpretation of the results.     

Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling

In the last few decades hydrologists have made tremendous progress in using dynamic simulation models for the analysis and understanding of hydrologic systems. However, predictions with these models are often deterministic and as such they focus on the most probable forecast, without an explicit estimate of the associated uncertainty. This uncertainty arises from incomplete process representation, uncertainty in initial conditions, input, output and parameter error. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework was one of the first attempts to represent prediction uncertainty within the context of Monte Carlo (MC) analysis coupled with Bayesian estimation and propagation of uncertainty. Because of its flexibility, ease of implementation and its suitability for parallel implementation on distributed computer systems, the GLUE method has been used in a wide variety of applications. However, the MC based sampling strategy of the prior parameter space typically utilized in GLUE is not particularly efficient in finding behavioral simulations. This becomes especially problematic for high-dimensional parameter estimation problems, and in the case of complex simulation models that require significant computational time to run and produce the desired output. In this paper we improve the computational efficiency of GLUE by sampling the prior parameter space using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme (the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM-UA) algorithm). Moreover, we propose an alternative strategy to determine the value of the cutoff threshold based on the appropriate coverage of the resulting uncertainty bounds. We demonstrate the superiority of this revised GLUE method with three different conceptual watershed models of increasing complexity, using both synthetic and real-world streamflow data from two catchments with different hydrologic regimes.     

The petroleum generation potential and effective oil window of humic coals related to coal composition and age

A worldwide data set of more than 500 humic coals from the major coal-forming geological periods has been used to analyse the evolution in the remaining (Hydrogen Index, HI) and total (Quality Index, QI) generation potentials with increasing thermal maturity and the ‘effective oil window’ (‘oil expulsion window’). All samples describe HI and QI bands that are broad at low maturities and that gradually narrow with increasing maturity. The oil generation potential is completely exhausted at a vitrinite reflectance of 2.0–2.2%R_o or T_max of 500–510 °C. The initial large variation in the generation potential is related to the original depositional conditions, particularly the degree of marine influence and the formation of hydrogen-enriched vitrinite, as suggested by increased sulphur and hydrogen contents. During initial thermal maturation the HI increases to a maximum value, HI_max. Similarly, QI increases to a maximum value, QI_max. This increase in HI and QI is related to the formation of an additional generation potential in the coal structure. The decline in QI with further maturation is indicating onset of initial oil expulsion, which precedes efficient expulsion. Liquid petroleum generation from humic coals is thus a complex, three-phase process: (i) onset of petroleum generation, (ii) petroleum build-up in the coal, and (iii) initial oil expulsion followed by efficient oil expulsion (corresponding to the effective oil window). Efficient oil expulsion is indicated by a decline in the Bitumen Index (BI) when plotted against vitrinite reflectance or T_max. This means that in humic coals the vitrinite reflectance or T_max values at which onset of petroleum generation occurs cannot be used to establish the start of the effective oil window. The start of the effective oil window occurs within the vitrinite reflectance range 0.85–1.05%R_o or T_max range 440–455 °C and the oil window extends to 1.5–2.0%R_o or 470–510 °C. For general use, an effective oil window is proposed to occur from 0.85 to 1.7%R_o or from 440 to 490 °C. Specific ranges for HI_max and the effective oil window can be defined for Cenozoic, Jurassic, Permian, and Carboniferous coals. Cenozoic coals reach the highest HI_max values (220–370 mg HC/g TOC), and for the most oil-prone Cenozoic coals the effective oil window may possibly range from 0.65 to 2.0%R_o or 430 to 510 °C. In contrast, the most oil-prone Jurassic, Permian and Carboniferous coals reach the expulsion threshold at a vitrinite reflectance of 0.85–0.9%R_o or T_max of 440–445 °C.     

Climate predictability experiments with a general circulation model

The atmospheric response to the evolution of the global sea surface temperatures from 1979 to 1992 is studied using the Max-Planck-Institut 19 level atmospheric general circulation model, ECHAM3 at T 42 resolution. Five separate 14-year integrations are performed and results are presented for each individual realization and for the ensemble-averaged response. The results are compared to a 30-year control integration using a climate monthly mean state of the sea surface temperatures and to analysis data. It is found that the ECHAM3 model, by and large, does reproduce the observed response pattern to El Nino and La Niña. During the El Nino events, the subtropical jet streams in both hemispheres are intensified and displaced equatorward, and there is a tendency towards weak upper easterlies over the equator. The Southern Oscillation is a very stable feature of the integrations and is accurately reproduced in all experiments. The inter-annual variability at middle- and high-latitudes, on the other hand, is strongly dominated by chaotic dynamics, and the tropical SST forcing only modulates the atmospheric circulation. The potential predictability of the model is investigated for six different regions. Signal to noise ratio is large in most parts of the tropical belt, of medium strength in the western hemisphere and generally small over the European area. The ENSO signal is most pronounced during the boreal spring. A particularly strong signal in the precipitation field in the extratropics during spring can be found over the southern United States. Western Canada is normally warmer during the warm ENSO phase, while northern Europe is warmer than normal during the ENSO cold phase. The reason is advection of warm air due to a more intense Pacific low than normal during the warm ENSO phase and a more intense Icelandic low than normal during the cold ENSO phase, respectively.     

Nitrogen geochemistry as a tracer of fluid flow in a hydrothermal vent complex in the Karoo Basin, South Africa

We have investigated the N geochemistry of minerals and rocks from contact metamorphic aureoles and hydrothermal vent complexes (HVC) in the Karoo Basin in South Africa. The HVC formed during phreatic eruptions associated with rapid devolatilization and pressure build-up in contact aureoles around early Jurassic sill intrusions. By combining outcrop data from a HVC and core data from contact aureoles, we investigate the relationship between light element release during metamorphism and vertical fluid migration. Sandstone and breccia from the HVC contain early-diagenetic ammonium -bearing feldspar (buddingtonite) and illite. Ammonium occupies up to 95% of the A site in feldspar, corresponding to concentrations up to 5.2 wt% N. Bulk-rock N isotope data for rocks from inside and outside the hydrothermal vent complex fall into two distinct groups. Background samples have δ¹⁵N_air between +1.5‰ and +4.9‰, whereas minerals from the vent complex have δ¹⁵N in the range +7.5 to +10.6‰. The N geochemistry of contact metamorphic shale from the lower stratigraphic units of the Karoo Basin shows that the vitrinite reflectance and δ¹⁵N values are positively correlated. Shale with reflectivity values >4%Ro are enriched in ¹⁵N, with δ¹⁵N values between +6‰ and +14‰, implying the release of isotopically light N into metamorphic fluids (probably as N₂). We suggest that the relatively high δ¹⁵N values of the early-diagenetic buddingtonite in the HVC reflect exchange of buddingtonite with N-bearing fluids ascending from greater depth after their release during contact metamorphism and dehydration. We present a qualitative model whereby hydrothermal vent complexes represent fluid flow structures after their formation, focusing N-bearing metamorphic fluids sourced in deeper levels of the basin. The release of organic N from sediments at depth in volcanic basins could play a role in the geochemical cycle of N, becoming particularly important during periods of intense volcanic activity.