An inter-hemispheric comparison of the tropical storm response to global warming

Model studies do not agree on future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity on regional scales. We aim to shed further light on the distribution, frequency, intensity, and seasonality of TCs that society can expect at the end of the twenty-first century in the Southern hemisphere (SH). Therefore, we investigate TC changes simulated by the atmospheric model ECHAM5 with T213 (~60 km) horizontal resolution. We identify TCs in present-day (20C; 1969–1990) and future (21C; 2069–2100) time slice simulations, using a tracking algorithm based on vorticity at 850 hPa. In contrast to the Northern hemisphere (NH), where tropical storm numbers reduce by 6 %, there is a more dramatic 22 % reduction in the SH, mainly in the South Indian Ocean. While an increase of static stability in 21C may partly explain the reduction in tropical storm numbers, stabilization cannot alone explain the larger SH drop. Large-scale circulation changes associated with a weakening of the Tropical Walker Circulation are hypothesized to cause the strong decrease of cyclones in the South Indian Ocean. In contrast the decrease found over the South Pacific appears to be partly related to increased vertical wind shear, which is possibly associated with an enhanced meridional sea surface temperature gradient. We find the main difference between the hemispheres in changes of the tropical cyclones of intermediate strength with an increase in the NH and a decrease in the SH. In both hemispheres the frequency of the strongest storms increases and the frequency of the weakest storms decreases, although the increase in SH intense storms is marginal.     

Bias aware Kalman filters: Comparison and improvements

This paper reviews two different approaches that have been proposed to tackle the problems of model bias with the Kalman filter: the use of a colored noise model and the implementation of a separate bias filter. Both filters are implemented with and without feedback of the bias into the model state. The colored noise filter formulation is extended to correct both time correlated and uncorrelated model error components. A more stable version of the separate filter without feedback is presented. The filters are implemented in an ensemble framework using Latin hypercube sampling. The techniques are illustrated on a simple one-dimensional groundwater problem. The results show that the presented filters outperform the standard Kalman filter and that the implementations with bias feedback work in more general conditions than the implementations without feedback.     

An urbanization bomb? Population growth and social disorder in cities

For the first time in history, the majority of the world population now lives in cities. Global urbanization will continue at high speed; the world's urban population is projected to increase by more than 3 billion people between 2010 and 2050. Some of this increase will be the result of high urban fertility rates and reclassification of rural land into urban areas, but a significant portion of future urbanization will be caused by rural-to-urban migration. This migration is expected to be particularly prevalent in countries and regions most affected by the changing climate. While urban populations generally enjoy a higher quality of life, many cities in the developing world have large slums with populations that are largely excluded from access to resources, jobs, and public services. In the environmental security literature, great rural resource scarcity, causing rural to urban migration, is seen as an important source of violent conflict. This study investigates how population growth affects patterns of public unrest in urban centers within the context of crucial intervening factors like democracy, poverty, economic shocks. It utilizes a newly collected event dataset of urban social disturbance covering 55 major cities in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa since 1960. The empirical analysis provides little support for the notion that high and increasing urban population pressure leads to a higher risk or frequency of social disorder. Instead, we find that urban disorder is primarily associated with a lack of consistent political institutions, economic shocks, and ongoing civil conflict.     

Refinement of Phosphorus Determination in Quartz by LA‐ICP‐MS through Defining New Reference Material Values

The aim of this study was to improve the quality of laser ablation inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometry (LA‐ICP‐MS) determination of phosphorus in crystalline quartz. Over the last decade, the Geological Survey of Norway has routinely performed trace element determinations on quartz from both operating and potential quartz deposits by LA‐ICP‐MS. The determined phosphorus concentrations were, with but few exceptions, consistently within the range of 10 to 30 μg g^?1, results that seemed to be both too high and too consistent. The multi‐material calibration curve obtained from a suite of reference materials (NIST SRM 610, 612, 614, 1830, BAM No. 1 amorphous SiO₂ glass) did not define a precise regression line. Published phosphorus concentrations for the reference materials are poorly constrained and the observed dispersions along the multi‐material calibration curve suggest that some of the reference values may be inaccurate. Furthermore, the calibration curve did not pass through the origin of the [(cps ³¹P/cps ³⁰Si) · cone. Si] vs. P concentration diagram; thus, in addition to the uncertainties of the literature values of phosphorus, it is difficult to define the calibration curve. Three reference materials (NIST SRM 614, 1830, synthetic quartz KORTH) were sent for phosphorus accelerator implantation, providing an independent and accurate (± 3%) approach for determining phosphorus concentrations in crystalline quartz. The intrinsic phosphorus concentrations of the three implanted samples plus those for NIST SRM 610 and 612 were determined by secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS), yielding new phosphorus values for NIST SRM 610, 612, 614 and 1830. Using these new values resulted in a better defined LA‐ICP‐MS calibration curve. However, the source of the ICP‐MS related background could not be defined, such that it must still be empirically corrected for.     

Structural changes in the FeAl2O4–FeCr2O4 solid solution series and their consequences on natural Cr-bearing spinels

The influence of Al–Cr substitution on the spinel structure was studied in synthetic single crystals belonging to the FeCr₂O₄–FeAl₂O₄ series produced by flux growth at 1,000–1,300 °C in controlled atmosphere. Samples were characterized by single-crystal X-ray diffraction, electron microprobe analyses and Mössbauer spectroscopy. Crystals of sufficient size and quality for single-crystal X-ray diffraction were obtained in the ranges Chr_0–0.45 and Chr_70–100 but not for intermediate compositions, possibly due to a reduced stability in this range. The increase in chromite component leads to an increase in the cell edge from 8.1534 (6) to 8.3672 (1) Å and a decrease in the u parameter from 0.2645 (2) to 0.2628 (1). Chemical analyses show that Fe²⁺ is very close to 1 apfu (0.994–1.007), Al is in the range 0.0793–1.981 apfu, Cr between 0 and 1.925 apfu. In some cases, Fe³⁺ is present in amounts up to 0.031 apfu. Spinels with intermediate Cr content (Chr component between 40 and 60) are strongly zoned with Cr-rich cores and Cr-poor rims. Mössbauer analyses on powdered spinels of the runs from which single crystal has been used for X-ray structural data show values of Fe³⁺/Fe_tot consistently larger than that calculated by EMPA on single crystals, presumably due to chemical variation between single crystals from the same runs. The synthesis runs ended at a temperature of 1,000 °C, but it is possible that cation ordering continued in the Cr-poor samples towards lower temperatures, possibly down to 700 °C.     

Hydrogen defect saturation in natural pyroxene

Dehydration via the redox reaction: OH^? + Fe²⁺ ? O^2? + Fe³⁺ + ½H₂ is believed to be a commonly occurring process in pyroxenes and other nominally anhydrous minerals (NAMs) from the upper mantle and appears to be fast enough to allow significant dehydration during magma ascent. Nevertheless, the mobility of hydrogen incorporating defects is controlled by cation diffusion with approximately two orders of magnitude slower reaction kinetics than the iron redox reaction, and host defects have a much higher likelihood to be preserved than the hydrogen itself. Therefore, restoring hydrogen into the structure would be possible by driving the redox reaction backwards, as long as temperature and time are limited so as not to change the defect state of the crystal structure. Here we investigate the re-hydration capacity of megacryst and xenocryst ortho- and clinopyroxene by stepwise thermal annealing of crystallographically oriented samples in 1 atm H₂. H concentration was measured by FTIR spectroscopy after each annealing step. Most samples show only a small increase in water content up to a presumed saturation level, after which further heat treatments in H₂ resulted in a slight decrease in water contents. However, two of the studied samples, both fairly Fe rich megacrysts, are significantly rehydrated. Some samples or crystal sections exhibit a practically inert behavior, with minor fluctuations around initial water concentrations. Present results indicate that most mantle pyroxenes have not been substantially dehydrated during late stage magma processes, and that restoring water is possible in samples which have lost considerable amounts of water.     

The architecture of a sandy braided-meandering river system: an example from the lower triassic Soiling Formation (M. Buntsandstein) in W-Germany

The dominantly sandy fluvial deposits of the Soiling Formation in the Hessian Depression in W-Germany are excellently exposed in abandoned sandstone quarries N of Kassel near Bad Karlshafen und Stadtoldendorf.Detailed mapping of the quarry walls indicates the presence of five architectural elements: (1) lateral accretion deposits; (2) minor cross-cutting channel-fills; (3) major broad channel deposits; (4) laminated sand sheets; and (5) muddy deposits. The vertical and lateral relationships of these elements suggest deposition in a braided-meandering river system. Sinuous parts of the river channels were dominated by point bar deposition at river high stage (element 1), whereas low-stage flow was characterized by a braided stream pattern (element 2). Less sinuous parts of the river channels were characterized by moderate braiding indices (element 3). Proximal overbank areas were dominated by sandy sheet flows (element 4) whereas distal overbank areas received muddy sediments (element 5).

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Zusammenfassung Die überwiegend sandigen fluviatilen Ablagerungen der Solling-Folge in der Hessischen Senke sind sehr gut in ehemaligen Sandsteinbrüchen nördlich von Kassel in der Nähe von Bad Karlshafen und Stadtoldendorf aufgeschlossen.Detaillierte Kartierung der Bruchwände zeigt fünf architektonische Elemente: (1) Ablagerungen mit lateralem Zuwachs; (2) kleine durchschneidende Rinnenfüllungen; (3) Absätze in großen und breiten Kanälen; (4) laminierte Sandschichten und (5) tonige Ablagerungen. Die vertikalen und lateralen Beziehungen dieser Elemente zueinander deuten auf Sedimentation in einem verflochtenen bis mäandrierenden Flussnetz hin. Die stark gekrümmten Teile der Flussrinnen sind bei Hochwasser von Point Bar-Absätzen dominiert (Element 1), während sie bei Niedrigwasser Ströme mit verflochtenem Muster zeigen (Element 2). Die weniger gekrümmten Teile der Flussrinnen sind durch moderate Vernetzungsindizien charakterisiert (Element 3). Proximale Überflutungsbereiche sind von sandigen Schichtflutsedimenten dominiert (Element 4), während auf den distalen Überflutungsebenen tonige Sedimente abgelagert wurden (Element 5).

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Résumé Les dépôts fluviatiles à dominance sableuse de la Soiling Formation (dépression de Hesse, en Allemagne) affleurent de manière exceptionnelle dans des carrières abandonnées près de Bad-Karlshafen et Stadtoldendorf. Une cartographie détaillée des parois des carrières révèle cinq éléments architecturaux: 1) dépôts à croissance latérale; 2) remplissage entrecroisé de chenaux mineurs; 3) dépôts de chenaux majeurs; 4) couches de sable à structure laminée; 5) dépôts argileux. Les relations verticales et latérales de ces éléments suggèrent une sédimentation dans une rivière anastomosée et à méandres. Les parties sinueuses des chenaux étaient le siège d'une sédimentation de »point bar« lors des périodes de hautes eaux (élément 1), tandis que les périodes de basses eaux se traduisent par un type de cours d'eau anastomosé (élément 2). Les parties moins sinueuses des chenaux étaient caractérisées par des indices d'anastomose plus modérés (élément 3). Les domaines proximaux de crue étaient dominés par des influx sableux (élément 4), tandis que les domaines de crue distaux recevaient des sédiments argileux (élément 5).

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- . 5 : 1) ; 2) : 3) ; 4) 5) . . , ( 1), ( 2). ( 3). , , ( 4), - , ( 5).

     

Heavy minerals in stream sediments,Southwest Norway

As part of a regional prospecting programme, 600 panned stream sediment concentrates from 1000 km² have been examined for scheelite (CaWO₄) using ultraviolet light. The mineralogical compositions of the heavy mineral concentrates were determined and related to bedrock geology. The results of the investigation are presented on maps showing the distribution of scheelite, magnetite, and ilmenite. Follow-up work resulted in the discovery of nine new tungsten occurrences. Magnetite dominates in areas of acid rocks, and ilmenite in areas of basic rocks. The areal distribution of hornblende and hypersthene reflects the metamorphic grades.