The economics of decarbonizing the energy system—results and insights from the RECIPE model intercomparison

This paper synthesizes the results from the model intercomparison exercise among regionalized global energy-economy models conducted in the context of the RECIPE project. The economic adjustment effects of long-term climate policy are investigated based on the cross-comparison of the intertemporal optimization models ReMIND-R and WITCH as well as the recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R. A number of robust findings emerge. If the international community takes immediate action to mitigate climate change, the costs of stabilizing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations at 450?ppm (roughly 530?C550?ppm-e) discounted at 3% are estimated to be 1.4% or lower of global consumption over the twenty-first century. Second best settings with either a delay in climate policy or restrictions to the deployment of low-carbon technologies can result in substantial increases of mitigation costs. A delay of global climate policy until 2030 would render the 450?ppm target unachievable. Renewables and CCS are found to be the most critical mitigation technologies, and all models project a rapid switch of investments away from freely emitting energy conversion technologies towards renewables, CCS and nuclear. Concerning end use sectors, the models consistently show an almost full scale decarbonization of the electricity sector by the middle of the twenty-first century, while the decarbonization of non-electric energy demand, in particular in the transport sector remains incomplete in all mitigation scenarios. The results suggest that assumptions about low-carbon alternatives for non-electric energy demand are of key importance for the costs and achievability of very low stabilization scenarios.     

Modelling soil moisture in a high‐latitude landscape using LiDAR and soil data

Soil moisture has a pronounced effect on earth surface processes. Global soil moisture is strongly driven by climate, whereas at finer scales, the role of non‐climatic drivers becomes more important. We provide insights into the significance of soil and land surface properties in landscape‐scale soil moisture variation by utilizing high‐resolution light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data and extensive field investigations. The data consist of 1200 study plots located in a high‐latitude landscape of mountain tundra in north‐western Finland. We measured the plots three times during growing season 2016 with a hand‐held time‐domain reflectometry sensor. To model soil moisture and its temporal variation, we used four statistical modelling methods: generalized linear models, generalized additive models, boosted regression trees, and random forests. The model fit of the soil moisture models were R² = 0.60 and root mean square error (RMSE) 8.04 VWC% on average, while the temporal variation models showed a lower fit of R² = 0.25 and RMSE 13.11 CV%. The predictive performances for the former were R² = 0.47 and RMSE 9.34 VWC%, and for the latter R² = 0.01 and RMSE 15.29 CV%. Results were similar across the modelling methods, demonstrating a consistent pattern. Soil moisture and its temporal variation showed strong heterogeneity over short distances; therefore, soil moisture modelling benefits from high‐resolution predictors, such as LiDAR based variables. In the soil moisture models, the strongest predictor was SAGA (System for Automated Geoscientific Analyses) wetness index (SWI), based on a 1 m² digital terrain model derived from LiDAR data, which outperformed soil predictors. Thus, our study supports the use of LiDAR based SWI in explaining fine‐scale soil moisture variation. In the temporal variation models, the strongest predictor was the field‐quantified organic layer depth variable. Our results show that spatial soil moisture predictions can be based on soil and land surface properties, yet the temporal models require further investigation. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Export and degassing of terrestrial carbon through watercourses draining a temperate podzolized catchment

We measured spatial and temporal variations in carbon concentrations, isotopic compositions and exports during a complete hydrological cycle in nine watercourses draining a lowland forested podzolized catchment, flowing into the Arcachon lagoon (France). In addition, integrated fluxes of CO₂ across the water-atmosphere interface were estimated to assess the relative importance of CO₂ evasion versus lateral carbon transport at the catchment scale. Watercourse similarities and specificities linked to the local catchment characteristics are discussed and compared with other riverine systems. Low concentrations of suspended particulate matter and particulate organic carbon (POC) were generally measured in all the watercourses (8.4 ± 3.4 and 1.6 ± 0.6 mg L^?1, respectively), reflecting limited mechanical soil erosion. The generally high POC content in the suspended matter (20 %), low Chl a concentrations (1.3 ± 1.4 μg L^?1) and the relatively constant δ¹³C-POC value (near ?28 ‰) throughout the year reveal this POC originates from terrestrial C₃ plant and soil detritus. The presence of podzols leads to high levels of dissolved organic carbon (DOC; 6.6 ± 2.2 mg L^?1). Similarly, high dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations were measured in the Arcachon lagoon catchment (5.9 ± 2.2 mg L^?1). The δ¹³C-DIC value around ?20 ‰ throughout the year in many small watercourses reveals the predominance of terrestrial carbon mineralisation and silicate rock weathering in soils as the major DIC source. With pCO₂ between 1,000 and 10,000 ppmv, all watercourses were a source of CO₂ to the atmosphere, particularly during the low river stage. Organic carbon parameters remained relatively stable throughout the year, whereas DIC parameters showed strong seasonal contrasts closely linked to the hydrological regime and hyporheic flows. In total, the carbon export from the Arcachon watershed was estimated at 15,870 t C year^?1 or 6 t C km^?2 year^?1, mostly exported to the lagoon as DOC (35 %), DIC (24 %) and lost as CO₂ degassing to the atmosphere (34 %).     

Dynamique et modélisation des crues dans le bassin du Mono à Nangbéto (Togo/Bénin)

Résumé

Les inondations des dernières années en Afrique de l’Ouest rendent nécessaire la prévision hydrologique pour réduire la vulnérabilité des populations. Nous avons étudié la dynamique des crues dans le bassin du Mono en amont du barrage de Nangbéto (Togo et Bénin) par des méthodes statistiques et déterministes. L’augmentation des précipitations au cours de la décennie 1990 et la mise en eau du barrage de Nangbéto en 1988 ont modifié le régime du Mono, dont les débits d’étiages ont augmenté. Les débits entrants et sortants du barrage sont équivalents, même lors des crues. Les maximums annuels des débits entrants peuvent être modélisés par une distribution des valeurs extrêmes (GEV) de type Fréchet, tandis que ceux des débits sortants, suivent une loi GEV de type Weibull (bornée). Le mécanisme dominant de génération des crues dans le bassin est la montée progressive des eaux associée à l’augmentation de la saturation des sols. L’analyse des débits de crue entre 1988 et 2010 n’a pas montré d’augmentation de la magnitude ou de la fréquence des crues. Le modèle GR4J reproduit bien les débits de crues en période calage, mais ces critères de performance se dégradent lorsque l’on s’en éloigne. Dans ces conditions, l’utilisation de ce modèle pour évaluer les risques futurs de crues serait hasardeuse et il est nécessaire d’envisager d’autres types d’approches.     

Effect of hysteretic smoothness on inelastic response spectra with constant‐ductility

This paper presents an efficient methodology for computing constant‐ductility inelastic response spectra. The computation of constant‐ductility spectra involves numerical root‐finding algorithms to find the strongest structure providing a desired ductility response. Smooth inelastic structural behavior is modeled using a first‐order nonlinear differential equation and the transient structural response is solved using an implicit algorithm requiring Newton iterations at each time step. For structural models with smooth hysteretic behavior (not piece‐wise linear), a simple root‐finding method involving a combination of hyperbolic fits, linear interpolation, and Newton's method converges upon the highest strength (conservative) solution with a small number of iterations. The effect of the hysteretic smoothness on the occurrence of multiple roots is examined for two near‐fault and two far‐fault earthquake records, and for two measures of ductility and for normalized hysteretic energy. The results indicate how the smoothness of the hysteretic behavior affects ductility demand and constant‐ductility response spectra. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Late Miocene to Quaternary slip history across the Qiulitag anticline in the southern Tianshan piedmont

In this study, we reconstruct the Miocene to Quaternary shortening history across the Qiulitag anticline, a complex fault‐bend fold located in southern Tianshan. We studied the Yaha and Kuche sections, where we combined surface structural measurements and seismic imaging to model the stratigraphic horizons. The history of folding was reconstructed based on magnetostratigraphic analyses and eight cosmogenic burial ages in Kuche. Pleistocene deformation rates were also quantified in Yaha based on a deformed fluvial terrace that we dated to ~67 ka using a cosmogenic depth profile. Our results suggest that the fold grew at a mean slip rate of 0.9–1.3 mm/a in both sections but accelerated to ~2.5 mm/a during the Pleistocene in Kuche. These results support a migration of the deformation towards the basin during the Pleistocene and suggest that most of the present deformation in the Tianshan is accommodated across the external structures of the range.     

The provenance of Australian uranium ore concentrates by elemental and isotopic analysis

Elemental and isotopic ratio analyses of U ore concentrate samples, from the 3 operating U mining facilities in Australia, were carried out to determine if significant variations exist between their products, thereby allowing the U ore concentrate’s origin to be identified. Elemental analyses were conducted using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (XRF). Lead isotope ratios were measured using ICP-MS and U isotope analyses were conducted using thermal ionisation mass spectrometry (TIMS). Minute quantities of sample, such as that obtained from a swipe, were also examined for elemental concentrations using secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS). The results of multivariate statistical analysis show clear patterns in the trace elemental composition of the processed U ores, indicating that it is possible to use this feature as a unique identifier of an Australian U ore concentrate’s source. Secondary ion mass spectrometry analyses also allow individual particles to be differentiated using this ‘fingerprinting’ technique. Isotope ratios determined using TIMS reveal that there is a significant difference in the n(²³⁴U)/n(²³⁸U) isotope ratio between the U ore concentrate from each mine.     

Facies sequences in large-volume debris- and turbidity-flow deposits from the Pyrenees (Cretaceous; France,Spain)

Facies types and depositional models for thick gravity-flow deposits are inferred from Cretaceous Pyrenean examples occurring in different sedimentary settings: basin-plain during relative low sea level stand; slope-apron or deep valleys during relative sea level rise; and slope during relative sea level rise. The depositional units are interpreted as debrites, debrite-turbidite couplets, and megaturbidites. They are a function of transport distance and hydraulic jump by liquefaction and phase separation in large subaqueous flows.     

Sedimentary record of redox-sensitive elements (U, Mn, Mo) in a transitory anoxic basin (the Thau lagoon, France)

In order to further document the relation between redox conditions and the sedimentary record of Mn, U and Mo in a transitory anoxic water basin, their distribution has been studied along two profiles in the Thau lagoon (France). Sediments and pore-water have been sampled at two contrasting sites located, respectively, in the shellfish-farming area and in the centre of the lagoon. In the shellfish-farming area, the particulate organic carbon (POC) data indicate a more rapid organic matter mineralisation compared to the centre of the lagoon. This results in a sharper redox gradient characterized by the appearance of H₂S in pore-water a few millimetres below the sediment–water interface. In the centre of the lagoon, H₂S appears at a depth of 35 cm.In both cores, sedimentary Mn is relatively depleted through out the whole sedimentary column and varies with the proportion of clay minerals. After an initial release into solution at the sediment–water interface in relation to Mn-oxide reductive dissolution, authigenic U is immobilized when sulphides appear. Despite the occurrence of anoxic conditions at the sediment–water interface at the site influenced by shellfish farming, the burial of U is reduced by bioturbation, which raises reducing sediments to the surface. In the centre of the lagoon, Mo profiles reflect continuous diffusion into pore water and immobilization at 15 cm probably in anoxic microenvironments. At shellfish farms, dissolved Mo undergoes removal with sulphides but contrary to U, sedimentary Mo does not appear to be strongly affected by bioturbation. The profile indicates an increase in the frequency of anoxia crises during the second half of the 20th century.