Remotely sensed estimation of forest canopy density: A comparison of the performance of four methods

In recent years, a number of alternative methods have been proposed to predict forest canopy density from remotely sensed data. To date, however, it remains difficult to decide which method to use, since their relative performance has never been evaluated. In this study the performance of: (1) an artificial neural network, (2) a multiple linear regression, (3) the forest canopy density mapper and (4) a maximum likelihood classification method was compared for prediction of forest canopy density using a Landsat ETM+ image. Comparison of confusion matrices revealed that the regression model performed significantly worse than the three other methods. These results were based on a z-test for comparison of weighted kappa statistics, which is an appropriate statistic for analysis of ranked categories. About 89% of the variance of the observed canopy density was explained by the artificial neural networks, which outperformed the other three methods in this respect. Moreover, the artificial neural networks gave an unbiased prediction, while other methods systematically under or over predicted forest canopy density. The choice of biased method could have a high impact on canopy density inventories.     

On the physics of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a pronounced signal of climate variability in the North Atlantic sea-surface temperature field. In this paper, we propose an explanation of the physical processes responsible for the timescale and the spatial pattern of the AMO. Our approach involves the analysis of solutions of a hierarchy of models. In the lowest member of the model hierarchy, which is an ocean-only model for flow in an idealized basin, the variability shows up as a multidecadal oscillatory mode which is able to destabilize the mean thermohaline circulation. In the highest member of the model hierarchy, which is the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory R30 climate model, multidecadal variability is found as a dominant statistical mode of variability. The connection between both results is established by tracing the spatial and temporal expression of the multidecadal mode through the model hierarchy while monitoring changes in specific quantities (mechanistic indicators) associated with its physics. The proposed explanation of the properties of the AMO is eventually based on the changes in the spatial patterns of variability through the model hierarchy.Responsible Editor: Tal Ezer     

Amino acid racemization dating of fossil bones,I. inter-laboratory comparison of racemization measurements

Enantiomeric measurements for aspartic acid, glutamic acid, and alanine in twenty-one different fossil bone samples have been carried out by three different laboratories using different analytical methods. These inter-laboratory comparisons demonstrate that D/L aspartic acid measurements are highly reproducible, whereas the enantiomeric measurements for the other amino acids show a wide variation between the three laboratories. At present, aspartic acid measurements are the most suitable for racemization dating of bone because of their superior analytical precision.     

Hedonic price models with omitted variables and measurement errors: a constrained autoregression–structural equation modeling approach with application to urban Indonesia

Omitted variables and measurement errors in explanatory variables frequently occur in hedonic price models. Ignoring these problems leads to biased estimators. In this paper, we develop a constrained autoregression–structural equation model (ASEM) to handle both types of problems. Standard panel data models to handle omitted variables bias are based on the assumption that the omitted variables are time-invariant. ASEM allows handling of both time-varying and time-invariant omitted variables by constrained autoregression. In the case of measurement error, standard approaches require additional external information which is usually difficult to obtain. ASEM exploits the fact that panel data are repeatedly measured which allows decomposing the variance of a variable into the true variance and the variance due to measurement error. We apply ASEM to estimate a hedonic housing model for urban Indonesia. To get insight into the consequences of measurement error and omitted variables, we compare the ASEM estimates with the outcomes of (1) a standard SEM, which does not account for omitted variables, (2) a constrained autoregression model, which does not account for measurement error, and (3) a fixed effects hedonic model, which ignores measurement error and time-varying omitted variables. The differences between the ASEM estimates and the outcomes of the three alternative approaches are substantial.     

Changes to sediment sources following wildfire in a forested upland catchment,southeastern Australia

Few investigations link post‐fire changes to sediment sources and erosion processes with sediment yield response at the catchment scale. This linkage is essential if downstream impacts on sediment transport after fire are to be understood in the context of fire effects across different forest environments. In this study, we quantify changing source contributions to fine sediment (<63 µm) exported from a eucalypt forest catchment (136 ha) burnt by wildfire. The study catchment is one of a pair of research catchments located in the East Kiewa River valley in southeastern Australia that have been the subject of a research program investigating wildfire effects on runoff, erosion, and catchment sediment/nutrient exports. This previous research provided the opportunity to couple insights gained from a range of measurement techniques with the application of fallout radionuclides ¹³⁷Cs and ²¹⁰Pb_ex to trace sediment sources. It was found that hillslope surface erosion dominated exports throughout the 3·5‐year post‐fire measurement period. During this time there was a pronounced decline in the proportional surface contribution from close to 100% in the first six months to 58% in the fourth year after fire. Over the study period, hillslope surface sources accounted for 93% of the fine sediment yield from the burnt catchment. The largest decline in the hillslope contribution occurred between the first and second years after fire, which corresponded with the previously reported large decline in sediment yield, breakdown of water repellency in burnt soils, substantial reduction in hillslope erodibility, and rapid surface vegetation recovery. Coupling the information on sediment sources with hillslope process measurements indicated that only a small proportion of slopes contributed sediment to the catchment outlet, with material derived from near‐channel areas dominating the post‐fire catchment sediment yield response. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The relation between productivity and temperature in the Pliocene North Atlantic at the onset of northern hemisphere glaciation: a palynological study

High resolution palynological analysis of DSDP Cores 607/607A shows for the interval between 2.8 and 2.2 Ma B.P. (which includes the onset of major northern hemisphere glaciations) a 41 ka cyclicity characterised by much higher palynomorph concentrations for the cooler intervals than for the warmer ones. Variation in dilution and concentration of palynomorphs can neither be explained by differential input of terrigenous clastics or carbonate, nor by differences in sedimentation rate, sediment density or selective preservation of palynomorphs. Subdivision of the palynomorph record in terms of autochthonous and allochthonous components, provides a way to detect changes in open ocean productivity and transport through time. It seems that a negative correlation between productivity and temperature in the latest Pleistocene open Atlantic had already been established before the major onset of northern hemisphere glaciations. A conceptual model is proposed to explain the observed lead of the palynological record relative to the isotope and carbonate records is proposed. This early response can result from changes in North Atlantic surface ocean circulation induced by changing atmospheric circulation.