Hydraulic and sedimentary processes causing anastomosing morphology of the upper Columbia River, British Columbia, Canada

The upper Columbia River, British Columbia, Canada, shows typical anastomosing morphology — multiple interconnected channels that enclose floodbasins — and lateral channel stability. We analysed field data on hydraulic and sedimentary processes and show that the anastomosing morphology of the upper Columbia River is caused by sediment (bedload) transport inefficiency, in combination with very limited potential for lateral bank erosion because of very low specific stream power (≤ 2.3 W/m²) and cohesive silty banks. In a diagram of channel type in relation to flow energy and median grain size of the bed material, data points for the straight upper Columbia River channels cluster separately from the data points for braided and meandering channels. Measurements and calculations indicate that bedload transport in the anastomosing reach of the upper Columbia River decreases downstream. Because of lateral channel stability no lateral storage capacity for bedload is created. Therefore, the surplus of bedload leads to channel bed aggradation, which outpaces levee accretion and causes avulsions because of loss of channel flow capacity. This avulsion mechanism applies only to the main channel of the system, which transports 87% of the water and > 90% of the sediment in the cross-valley transect studied. Because of very low sediment transport capacity, the morphological evolution of most secondary channels is slow. Measurements and calculations indicate that much more bedload is sequestered in the relatively steep upper anastomosing reach of the upper Columbia River than in the relatively gentle lower anastomosing reach. With anastomosing morphology and related processes (e.g., crevassing) being best developed in the upper reach, this confirms the notion of upstream rather than downstream control of upper Columbia River anastomosis.     

Assessing Soil Remobilisation in Catchments using a 137Cs-sediment Hillslope Model

Soil redistribution studies are important, especially in water supply catchments, because the rate at which denudation is occurring has implications for offsite water quality. However, the extent to which soil is redistributed within the landscape can be difficult to determine. This challenge can be overcome using fallout caesium-137 (¹³⁷Cs). This paper describes the rates of soil loss and remobilisation in two sub-catchments within the Sydney Basin region, namely Kembla and Kentish Creeks, which drain to the Cordeaux reservoir. The total inventories of ¹³⁷Cs in catchment soils were determined, a ¹³⁷Cs-regression equation and a theoretical diffusion and migration model were used to established relationships between ¹³⁷Cs inventories and the rates of soil loss. These relationships revealed relatively low occurrence of soil loss in Kentish Creek, but two slopes in the Kembla Creek sub-catchment had losses that appear to be moderate. However, there was no clear evidence to suggest whether slopes in upper and lower reaches of catchments had specific patterns of soil remobilisation. Qualitative categorisation of the slope elements using a ¹³⁷Cs-sediment hillslope model can be a useful sentinel for land users and decision makers even if absolute rates of soil loss or gain are not certain. The findings suggest that sediments mobilised in the study sub-catchments are not likely to impact significantly on the water quality in the Cordeaux reservoir.     

Late Carboniferous foreland basin formation and Early Carboniferous stretching in Northwestern Europe: inferences from quantitative subsidence analyses in the Netherlands

The large thickness of Upper Carboniferous strata found in the Netherlands suggests that the area was subject to long-term subsidence. However, the mechanisms responsible for subsidence are not quantified and are poorly known. In the area north of the London Brabant Massif, onshore United Kingdom, subsidence during the Namurian–Westphalian B has been explained by Dinantian rifting, followed by thermal subsidence. In contrast, south and east of the Netherlands, along the southern margin of the Northwest European Carboniferous Basin, flexural subsidence caused the development of a foreland basin. It has been proposed that foreland flexure due to Variscan orogenic loading was also responsible for Late Carboniferous subsidence in the Netherlands. In the first part of this paper, we present a series of modelling results in which the geometry and location of the Variscan foreland basin was calculated on the basis of kinematic reconstructions of the Variscan thrust system. Although several uncertainties exist, it is concluded that most subsidence calculated from well data in the Netherlands cannot be explained by flexural subsidence alone. Therefore, we investigated whether a Dinantian rifting event could adequately explain the observed subsidence by inverse modelling. The results show that if only a Dinantian rifting event is assumed, such as is found in the United Kingdom, a very high palaeowater depth at the end of the Dinantian is required to accommodate the Namurian–Westphalian B sedimentary sequence. To better explain the observed subsidence curves, we propose (1) an additional stretching event during the Namurian and (2) a model incorporating an extra dynamic component, which might well explain the very high wavelength of the observed subsidence compared with the wavelength of the predicted flexural foreland basin.     

Improving a regional model using reduced complexity and parameter estimation

The availability of powerful desktop computers and graphical user interfaces for ground water flow models makes possible the construction of ever more complex models. A proposed copper-zinc sulfide mine in northern Wisconsin offers a unique case in which the same hydrologic system has been modeled using a variety of techniques covering a wide range of sophistication and complexity. Early in the permitting process, simple numerical models were used to evaluate the necessary amount of water to be pumped from the mine, reductions in streamflow, and the drawdowns in the regional aquifer. More complex models have subsequently been used in an attempt to refine the predictions. Even after so much modeling effort, questions regarding the accuracy and reliability of the predictions remain. We have performed a new analysis of the proposed mine using the two-dimensional analytic element code GFLOW coupled with the nonlinear parameter estimation code UCODE. The new model is parsimonious, containing fewer than 10 parameters, and covers a region several times larger in areal extent than any of the previous models. The model demonstrates the suitability of analytic element codes for use with parameter estimation codes. The simplified model results are similar to the more complex models; predicted mine inflows and UCODE-derived 95% confidence intervals are consistent with the previous predictions. More important, the large areal extent of the model allowed us to examine hydrological features not included in the previous models, resulting in new insights about the effects that far-field boundary conditions can have on near-field model calibration and parameterization. In this case, the addition of surface water runoff into a lake in the headwaters of a stream while holding recharge constant moved a regional ground watershed divide and resulted in some of the added water being captured by the adjoining basin. Finally, a simple analytical solution was used to clarify the GFLOW model's prediction that, for a model that is properly calibrated for heads, regional drawdowns are relatively unaffected by the choice of aquifer properties, but that mine inflows are strongly affected. Paradoxically, by reducing model complexity, we have increased the understanding gained from the modeling effort.     

An evaluation of beached bird monitoring approaches

Oil-pollution monitoring at sea through beach bird surveying would undoubtedly benefit from a further standardisation of methods, enhancing the efficiency of data collection. In order to come up with useful recommendations, we evaluated various approaches of beached bird collection at the Belgian coast during seven winters (1993-1999). Data received in a passive way by one major rehabilitation centre were compared to the results of targeted beach surveys carried out at different scales by trained ornithologists: 'weekly' surveys - with a mean interval of 9 days - restricted to a fixed 16.7 km beach stretch, 'monthly' surveys over the entire coastline (62.1 km) and an annual 'international' survey in Belgium over the same distance at the end of February. Data collected through Belgian rehabilitation centres concern injured, living birds collected in a non-systematical way. Oil rates derived from these centres appear to be strongly biased to oiled auks and inshore bird species, and are hence of little use in assessing the extent of oil pollution at sea. The major asset of rehabilitation centres in terms of data collection seems to be their continuous warning function for events of mass mortality. Weekly surveys on a representative and large enough section rendered reliable data on oil rates, estimates of total number of bird victims, representation of various taxonomic groups and species-richness and were most sensitive in detecting events quickly (wrecks, oil-slicks, severe winter mortality, etc.). Monthly surveys gave comparable results, although they overlooked some important beaching events and demonstrated slightly higher oil rates, probably due to the higher chance to miss short-lasting wrecks of auks. Since the monthly surveys in Belgium were carried out by a network of volunteers and were spread over a larger beach section, they should be considered as best performing. Single 'international beached bird surveys' in February gave reliable data on total victim number (once the mean ratio between numbers in various months is known) and oil rate (provided a sufficiently large sample can be collected), but failed in tracking events. It is a particularly attractive approach because of its long tradition, resulting in invaluable long-term databases, and the uniformity in which these surveys are organised on a large scale. The minimal distance for a monthly survey amounts to 25-30 km (40-50% of Belgian coastline) up to 40 km (65%) in order to attain sound figures for oil rate and species-richness, respectively. These distances are primarily determined by the number of bird corpses that may be collected and are hence a function of beaching intensity and corpse detection rate.     

Rates of salinization by free convection in high-permeability sediments: insights from numerical modeling and application to the Dutch coastal area

Numerical modeling and dimensional analysis is used to study the salinization of thick, high-permeability aquifers by free convection from a salt source at the surface. Current understanding of this process mainly concerns the initial stages of salinization only (boundary-layer development, break-up into fingers and initial phase of finger descent). In the modeling, special attention is paid to the role of two processes in the long-term salinization rate: (1) the progressive loss of salt from fingers by lateral diffusion, and (2) the coalescence of fingers during their descent. From the numerical simulations a relationship is derived that describes the development of the horizontally averaged salinity with depth and time as a function of permeability and initial-density contrast for aquifer Rayleigh numbers up to Ra =6,000. This relationship is consistent with and provides an extension to previous generalized relationships of the rate of finger descent. Its applicability to real-world aquifers (Ra >10⁵) that include complexities due to anisotropy, heterogeneity, and mechanical dispersion is discussed. Application to the Pleistocene coastal aquifer of the Netherlands (thickness 200 m, permeability 10^-11 m²) suggests that salinization of the aquifer during historic episodes of inundation by seawater occurred within decades.

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Resumen Se utiliza modelos numéricos y un análisis dimensional para estudiar la salinización de acuíferos potentes de alta permeabilidad por convección libre a partir de una fuente salina superficial. El conocimiento acutal de este proceso se limita a las fases iniciales de la salinización (desarrollo de la capa de contorno, creación de digitaciones y fase inicial de la progresión de éstas). En la modelación, se presta atención especial al papel desempeñado por dos procesos de salinización a largo plazo: (1) la pérdida progresiva de sal por difusión lateral desde las digitaciones, y (2) la coalescencia de las digitaciones durante su avance. A partir de las simulaciones numéricas, se obtiene una relación que describe el desarrollo de la salinidad con la profundidad y el tiempo, promediada horizontalmente, el cual depende de la permeabilidad y del contraste inicial de densidad para números de Rayleigh inferiores a 6.000. Esta relación es coherente con índices previos generalizados del avance de las digitaciones, y representa una extensión a estos. Se discute su aplicabilidad a acuíferos reales (con números de Rayleigh superiores a 105), que tienen complejidades asociadas a la anisotropía, la heterogeneidad y la dispersión mecánica. La aplicación al acuífero costero Pleistoceno de los Países Bajos (20 m de potencia y 10-11 m2 de permeabilidad) sugiere que la salinización tuvo lugar en décadas, debido a episodios históricos de inundación por aguas marinas.

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Résumé Une modélisation numérique et une analyse dimensionnelle ont été mises en oeuvre pour étudier la salinisation d'aquifères épais et à forte perméabilité par convection libre d'une source de sel en surface. La compréhension habituelle de ce processus concerne principalement les étapes initiales de la salinisation seule (développement d'une couche limite, partition en digitations et phase initiale de développement des digitation). Dans la modélisation, une attention particulière a été portée au rôle de deux processus du taux de salinisation à long terme: (1) la perte progressive de sel dans les digitations par diffusion latérale et (2) la coalescence des digitations au cours de leur développement. À partir de simulations numériques, une relation a été obtenue qui permet de décrire l'extension de la salinité horizontalement en profondeur et au cours du temps en fonction de la perméabilité et du contraste initial de densité pour des nombres de Rayleigh de l'aquifère jusqu'à Ra =6,000. Cette relation est compatible avec ces résultats et fournit une extension des relations précédemment généralisées du taux de développement des digitations. On discute son applicabilité à des aquifères réels (Ra >105) incluant des complexités liées à l'anisotropie, l'hétérogénéité et la dispersion mécanique. L'application à l'aquifère côtier du Pléistocène des Pays-Bas (épaisseur environ 200 m, perméabilité environ10–11 m²) laisse penser que la salinisation de cet aquifère au cours d'épisodes historiques d'inondation par la mer s'est produit durant des décennies.

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Surface irrigation performance of date palms under water scarcity in arid irrigated lands

In this paper, a study on the performance of surface irrigation of date palms in a Tunisian arid area (Douz oasis) is presented. The study is conducted in 16 plots with various sizes and soil textures over a 4-year period (2012–2015). In the first step, an assessment of total water requirements of the date palms is carried out. Then, the surface irrigation performance is analyzed using three indicators, i.e., the relative water supply (RWS) indicator, the uniformity index of water distribution (D _U ), and the water application efficiency (E _a ). Finally, the irrigation management problems are identified. The results indicate that in the arid Tunisian Saharan oases, the soil texture, plot size, and farmers’ practices (especially irrigation duration) have significant effects on surface irrigation performance. The average annual net irrigation requirements of date palms are about 2400 mm. The RWS increases from 1.8 in the smaller plots (0.5 ha) to 3.6 in the largest plots (2.5 ha), implying that the increase in the plot size requires an excessive water supply. D _U decreases from 80.7 in the 0.5 ha plots to 65.4 in the 2.5 ha plots; however, no significant difference in the E _a is observed. The results show that the soil texture has no influence on the RWS and D _U , but the E _a is significantly higher in the loamy-sand soils (46.7%) compared to the sandy soils (36.3%). Overall, RWS indicator is higher than 1 (RWS?=?2.6) implying excessive irrigation supply to the system. Although D _U is relatively uniform (>?60%), E _a is relatively low (<?50%) indicating that the current irrigation management is inefficient. These findings have a paramount importance for improving irrigation water management in the Tunisian Saharan oases.     

Model structure and uncertainty for stochastic non-point source modelling applications

Abstract

The uncertainty associated with a rainfall–runoff and non-point source loading (NPS) model can be attributed to both the parameterization and model structure. An interesting implication of the areal nature of NPS models is the direct relationship between model structure (i.e. sub-watershed size) and sample size for the parameterization of spatial data. The approach of this research is to find structural limitations in scale for the use of the conceptual NPS model, then examine the scales at which suitable stochastic depictions of key parameter sets can be generated. The overlapping regions are optimal (and possibly the only suitable regions) for conducting meaningful stochastic analysis with a given NPS model. Previous work has sought to find optimal scales for deterministic analysis (where, in fact, calibration can be adjusted to compensate for sub-optimal scale selection); however, analysis of stochastic suitability and uncertainty associated with both the conceptual model and the parameter set, as presented here, is novel; as is the strategy of delineating a watershed based on the uncertainty distribution. The results of this paper demonstrate a narrow range of acceptable model structure for stochastic analysis in the chosen NPS model. In the case examined, the uncertainties associated with parameterization and parameter sensitivity are shown to be outweighed in significance by those resulting from structural and conceptual decisions.

Citation Parker, G. T. Rennie, C. D. & Droste, R. L. (2011) Model structure and uncertainty for stochastic non-point source modelling applications. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(5), 870–882.     

On the attractors of an intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere model

Techniques of numerical bifurcation theory are used to study stationary and periodic solutions of an intermediate coupled model for tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction. The qualitative dynamical behavior is determined for a volume in parameter space spanned by the atmospheric damping length, the coupling parameter, the surface layer feedback strength and the relative adjustment time coefficient. Time integration methods have previously shown much interesting dynamics, including multiple steady states, eastward- or westward-propagating orbits and relaxation oscillations. The present study shows how this dynamics arises in parameter space through the interaction of the different branches of equilibrium solutions and the singularities on these branches. For example, we show that westward-propagating periodic orbits arise through an interaction of two unstable stationary modes and that relaxation oscillations occur through a limit cycle-saddle node interaction. There are several dynamical regimes in the coupled model which are determined by the primary bifurcation structure; this structure depends strongly on the parameters in the model. Although much of the dynamics may be studied in the fast-wave limit, it is shown that ocean wave dynamics introduces additional oscillatory instabilities and how these relate to propagating oscillations.