Using hydraulic head measurements in variable-density ground water flow analyses

The use of hydraulic head measurements in ground water of variable density is considerably more complicated than for the case of constant-density ground water. A theoretical framework for dealing with these complications does exist in the current literature but suffers from a lack of awareness among many hydrogeologists. When corrections for density variations are ignored or not properly taken into account, misinterpretation of both ground water flow direction and magnitude may result. This paper summarizes the existing theoretical framework and provides practical guidelines for the interpretation of head measurements in variable-density ground water systems. It will be argued that, provided that the proper corrections are taken into account, fresh water heads can be used to analyze both horizontal and vertical flow components. To avoid potential confusion, it is recommended that the use of the so-called environmental water head, which was initially introduced to facilitate the analysis of vertical ground water flow, be abandoned in favor of properly computed fresh water head analyses. The presented methodology provides a framework for determining quantitatively when variable-density effects on ground water flow need to be taken into account or can be justifiably neglected. Therefore, we recommend that it should become part of all hydrogeologic analyses in which density effects are suspected to play a role.     

Historical and future development of the tidally averaged transport of sandy sediments in the Scheldt estuary: a 2D exploratory model

Ocean Dynamics - To investigate the historical development of the tidally averaged transport of sandy sediments in the main branch of the Scheldt estuary over the last decades (1950–2013), a...     

Avulsions, channel evolution and floodplain sedimentation rates of the anastomosing upper Columbia River, British Columbia, Canada

Ages of channels of the anastomosing upper Columbia River, south‐eastern British Columbia, Canada, were investigated in a cross‐valley transect by ¹⁴C dating of subsurface floodplain organic material from beneath levees. The avulsion history within the transect was deduced from these data, and morphological stages in channel development were recognized. Additionally, floodplain sedimentation rates were established. The new data demonstrate that the upper Columbia River is a long‐lived, dynamic anastomosing system. Results show that anastomosis at the study location has persisted since at least 2700 cal. years BP, with avulsions occurring frequently. At least nine channels have formed in the studied cross‐valley transect within the past 3000 years. Channel lifetimes from formation to abandonment appear to be highly variable, ranging from approximately 800 to 3000 years. Log jams provoking avulsions and/or silting up of old channels are proposed as reasons for this variability. Long‐term average floodplain sedimentation rates appear to be significantly lower than previously proposed by Smith (1983, Int. Assoc. Sedimentol. Spec. Publ., 6, 155–168). A long‐term (4550 years) average of 1·75 mm year^?1 (after compaction) was based on ¹⁴C dates, while a short‐term sedimentation rate of 0·8 mm was determined for a single, relatively small, seasonal flood in 1994 using sediment traps. However, short‐term sedimentation rates vary considerably over the floodplain, with levees aggrading up to four times faster than floodbasins. Channels of the upper Columbia River anastomosed reach follow a consistent pattern in their development, with each stage being characterized by different morphology and processes. Channel evolution comprises the following succession: (1) avulsion stage, in which a crevasse splay channel deepens by scour and levee sedimentation; (2) widening and deepening stage, in which bank slumping and bed scouring dominates; (3) infilling stage, in which either channel narrowing (bank accretion) or channel shallowing (bed accretion) takes place; and (4) abandonment stage, in which the residual (remnant) channel is filled exclusively by silt, clay and organic material. Vertical stacking (super‐ imposition) of active channels on recent channel‐fill sand bodies is a notable feature of the upper Columbia River, which suggests that reoccupation of residual channels is a common process.     

On using simple time-of-travel capture zone delineation methods

As part of its Wellhead Protection Program, the U.S. EPA mandates the delineation of "time-of-travel capture zones" as the basis for the definition of wellhead protection zones surrounding drinking water production wells. Depending on circumstances the capture zones may be determined using methods that range from simply drawing a circle around the well to sophisticated ground water flow and transport modeling. The simpler methods are attractive when faced with the delineation of hundreds or thousands of capture zones for small public drinking water supply wells. On the other hand, a circular capture zone may not be adequate in the presence of an ambient ground water flow regime. A dimensionless time-of-travel parameter T is used to determine when calculated fixed-radius capture zones can be used for drinking water production wells. The parameter incorporates aquifer properties, the magnitude of the ambient ground water flow field, and the travel time criterion for the time-of-travel capture zone. In the absence of interfering flow features, three different simple capture zones can be used depending on the value of T . A modified calculated fixed-radius capture zone proves protective when T < 0.1, while a more elongated capture zone must be used when T > 1. For values of T between 0.1 and 1, a circular capture zone can be used that is eccentric with respect to the well. Finally, calculating T allows for a quick assessment of the validity of circular capture zones without redoing the delineation with a computer model.     

The relation between stellar mass and weak lensing signal around galaxies: implications for modified Newtonian dynamics

We study the amplitude of the weak gravitational lensing signal as a function of stellar mass around a sample of relatively isolated galaxies. This selection of lenses simplifies the interpretation of the observations, which consist of data from the Red-Sequence Cluster Survey and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We find that the amplitude of the lensing signal as a function of stellar mass is well described by a power law with a best-fitting slope  α= 0.74 ± 0.08  . This result is inconsistent with modified Newtonian dynamics (MOND), which predicts  α= 0.5  (we find  α > 0.5  with 99.7 per cent confidence). As a related test, we determine the MOND mass-to-light ratio as a function of luminosity. Our results require dark matter for the most luminous galaxies ( L ≳ 10¹¹ L_⊙). We rule out an extended halo of gas or active neutrinos as a way of reconciling our findings with MOND. Although we focus on a single alternative gravity model, we note that our results provide an important test for any alternative theory of gravity.     

Application of the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation Method to the Predictability Study of the Kuroshio Large Meander

A reduced-gravity barotropic shallow-water model was used to simulate the Kuroshio path variations.The results show that the model was able to capture the essential features of these path variations.We used one simulation of the model as the reference state and investigated the effects of errors in model parameters on the prediction of the transition to the Kuroshio large meander (KLM) state using the conditional nonlinear optimal parameter perturbation (CNOP-P) method.Because of their relatively large uncertainties,three model parameters were considered:the interfacial friction coefficient,the wind-stress amplitude,and the lateral friction coefficient.We determined the CNOP-Ps optimized for each of these three parameters independently,and we optimized all three parameters simultaneously using the Spectral Projected Gradient 2 (SPG2) algorithm.Similarly,the impacts caused by errors in initial conditions were examined using the conditional nonlinear optimal initial perturbation (CNOP-I) method.Both the CNOP-I and CNOP-Ps can result in significant prediction errors of the KLM over a lead time of 240 days.But the prediction error caused by CNOP-I is greater than that caused by CNOP-P.The results of this study indicate not only that initial condition errors have greater effects on the prediction of the KLM than errors in model parameters but also that the latter cannot be ignored.Hence,to enhance the forecast skill of the KLM in this model,the initial conditions should first be improved,the model parameters should use the best possible estimates.     

UV-B induced immunomodulation: a health risk

The depletion in stratospheric ozone and changes in life-styles are likely to lead to an increased exposure to sunlight, including the UV-B waveband. Such irradiation may induce immunomodulation and therefore have adverse effects on human health. Alterations in immune responses could affect not only photocarcinogenesis but also resistance to infections, certain allergies and autoimmunity, and vaccination efficacy. In the present study, the risk of increased UV-B exposure has been estimated with respect to the resistance to a bacterial ( Listeria monocytogenes ) and a viral (herpes simplex virus) infection. The data indicate that suberythemal UV-B irradiation can have significant effects on immune responses to certain infectious diseases in human subjects.     

An evaluation of beached bird monitoring approaches

Oil-pollution monitoring at sea through beach bird surveying would undoubtedly benefit from a further standardisation of methods, enhancing the efficiency of data collection. In order to come up with useful recommendations, we evaluated various approaches of beached bird collection at the Belgian coast during seven winters (1993-1999). Data received in a passive way by one major rehabilitation centre were compared to the results of targeted beach surveys carried out at different scales by trained ornithologists: 'weekly' surveys - with a mean interval of 9 days - restricted to a fixed 16.7 km beach stretch, 'monthly' surveys over the entire coastline (62.1 km) and an annual 'international' survey in Belgium over the same distance at the end of February. Data collected through Belgian rehabilitation centres concern injured, living birds collected in a non-systematical way. Oil rates derived from these centres appear to be strongly biased to oiled auks and inshore bird species, and are hence of little use in assessing the extent of oil pollution at sea. The major asset of rehabilitation centres in terms of data collection seems to be their continuous warning function for events of mass mortality. Weekly surveys on a representative and large enough section rendered reliable data on oil rates, estimates of total number of bird victims, representation of various taxonomic groups and species-richness and were most sensitive in detecting events quickly (wrecks, oil-slicks, severe winter mortality, etc.). Monthly surveys gave comparable results, although they overlooked some important beaching events and demonstrated slightly higher oil rates, probably due to the higher chance to miss short-lasting wrecks of auks. Since the monthly surveys in Belgium were carried out by a network of volunteers and were spread over a larger beach section, they should be considered as best performing. Single 'international beached bird surveys' in February gave reliable data on total victim number (once the mean ratio between numbers in various months is known) and oil rate (provided a sufficiently large sample can be collected), but failed in tracking events. It is a particularly attractive approach because of its long tradition, resulting in invaluable long-term databases, and the uniformity in which these surveys are organised on a large scale. The minimal distance for a monthly survey amounts to 25-30 km (40-50% of Belgian coastline) up to 40 km (65%) in order to attain sound figures for oil rate and species-richness, respectively. These distances are primarily determined by the number of bird corpses that may be collected and are hence a function of beaching intensity and corpse detection rate.