Hedonic price models with omitted variables and measurement errors: a constrained autoregression–structural equation modeling approach with application to urban Indonesia

Omitted variables and measurement errors in explanatory variables frequently occur in hedonic price models. Ignoring these problems leads to biased estimators. In this paper, we develop a constrained autoregression–structural equation model (ASEM) to handle both types of problems. Standard panel data models to handle omitted variables bias are based on the assumption that the omitted variables are time-invariant. ASEM allows handling of both time-varying and time-invariant omitted variables by constrained autoregression. In the case of measurement error, standard approaches require additional external information which is usually difficult to obtain. ASEM exploits the fact that panel data are repeatedly measured which allows decomposing the variance of a variable into the true variance and the variance due to measurement error. We apply ASEM to estimate a hedonic housing model for urban Indonesia. To get insight into the consequences of measurement error and omitted variables, we compare the ASEM estimates with the outcomes of (1) a standard SEM, which does not account for omitted variables, (2) a constrained autoregression model, which does not account for measurement error, and (3) a fixed effects hedonic model, which ignores measurement error and time-varying omitted variables. The differences between the ASEM estimates and the outcomes of the three alternative approaches are substantial.     

Remotely sensed estimation of forest canopy density: A comparison of the performance of four methods

In recent years, a number of alternative methods have been proposed to predict forest canopy density from remotely sensed data. To date, however, it remains difficult to decide which method to use, since their relative performance has never been evaluated. In this study the performance of: (1) an artificial neural network, (2) a multiple linear regression, (3) the forest canopy density mapper and (4) a maximum likelihood classification method was compared for prediction of forest canopy density using a Landsat ETM+ image. Comparison of confusion matrices revealed that the regression model performed significantly worse than the three other methods. These results were based on a z-test for comparison of weighted kappa statistics, which is an appropriate statistic for analysis of ranked categories. About 89% of the variance of the observed canopy density was explained by the artificial neural networks, which outperformed the other three methods in this respect. Moreover, the artificial neural networks gave an unbiased prediction, while other methods systematically under or over predicted forest canopy density. The choice of biased method could have a high impact on canopy density inventories.     

Spatial variability in growth and reproduction of the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas (Thunberg, 1793) along the west European coast

The Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas was introduced in Europe for commercial purposes in the mid 1960s. It was initially thought that low winter temperatures would restrain this species' reproduction and settlement; however, its present distribution in areas where no introduction has taken place suggests that natural invasion and expansion has occurred. Along the European coast, wild populations of Pacific oysters are already found from northern Germany to southern Portugal. Whether C. gigas will continue to further expand through northern waters will depend on its physiological performance. In this study, the performance of wild oyster populations has been studied in terms of growth and reproduction at three stations: La Rochelle (France; 46°N), Yerseke (Oosterschelde estuary, The Netherlands, 51°N), and Texel (Wadden Sea estuary, The Netherlands, 53°N). The French population had the lowest somatic-shell mass ratio and an increase in maximum shell length, somatic and gonadal mass was observed from France to the Netherlands. In addition, mean oocyte diameter decreased significantly from south to north. The combination of increasing gonadal mass and decreasing oocyte volume suggests an increasing reproductive output in terms of egg numbers from France to The Netherlands. Differences in temperature between locations will at least be partly responsible for the observed patterns; however, other environmental factors (such as food availability, predation pressure, sediment type and/or seston concentration) cannot be excluded. Since smaller eggs (oocytes) are thought to have a longer development time, the environmental conditions along the Dutch coast may result in increased larval dispersal and possibly in further population expansion.     

Growth and reproduction of the bivalve Spisula subtruncata (da Costa) in Dutch coastal waters

The bivalve Spisula subtruncata is usually abundant in shallow coastal waters along the Dutch coast. However, its biomass has been decreasing since 1995. In order to assess whether reproductive failure may be the cause of the observed decline over the last decades, the energy investment in reproduction of a population of S. subtruncata from central Dutch coastal waters was studied. The population studied consisted of individuals of up to four years old. Shell length reached maximum values of around 32 mm and individual total body, somatic and gonadal ash-free dry mass reached maximum values of about 278 mg AFDM, 252 mg AFDM and 76 mg AFDM, respectively. A clear seasonal cycle in somatic and gonadal mass was observed. Somatic and gonadal mass indices increased in early spring and reached maximum values during summer, followed by a decrease to minimum values at the beginning of the following year. Spawning was in June–July and settlement of spat seems to have occurred in July–August. Mean oocyte diameter was 57.43 ± 0.03 μm, corresponding to a volume of 98972 μm³. These results suggested that reproductive failure was not the cause of the current population decline. Most likely, unsuccessful settlement of spat and/or severe predation during the first months of life were responsible for the observed patterns.     

Seasonal variability in somatic and reproductive investment of the bivalve Scrobicularia plana (da Costa, 1778) along a latitudinal gradient

Monthly investment in soma and gonads in the bivalve Scrobicularia plana is described for three populations along its distributional range: Minho estuary, Portugal; Westerschelde estuary, The Netherlands and Buvika estuary, Norway. Seasonal cycles in body mass (BMI), somatic mass (SMI) and gonadal mass (GMI) indices were observed for all populations. In Portugal, BMI and SMI peaked in mid-autumn, while in The Netherlands both indices were at their highest in mid-spring. Norway showed a different pattern with two distinct peaks: one in mid-autumn and a second peak in spring. GMI reached maximum values in July in Portugal and Netherlands and in June in Norway. Overall, mean BMI and SMI were lower in Portugal while mean GMI was lower in Norway. The spawning period lasted the whole summer in Portugal, but was shorter (only two months) in The Netherlands and Norway. The reproductive investment in The Netherlands was significantly higher than in Portugal and Norway, with the lowest values being observed in Norway. Differences in annual cycles between populations were attributed to environmental factors, namely temperature and food availability. Temperature seems important in shaping the reproductive pattern with more northern populations showing shorter reproductive periods starting later in the year, and a lower reproductive output. In addition, winter water temperatures can explain the lower mean body and somatic mass values observed in Portugal. Food availability influenced the physiological performance of the species with peaks in somatic mass coinciding with phytoplankton blooms. This relation between physiological performance and environmental factors influences S. plana distribution, densities and even survival, with natural consequences on its commercial importance.     

An integrated geophysical study of Vestbakken Volcanic Province, western Barents Sea continental margin, and adjacent oceanic crust

This paper describes results from a geophysical study in the Vestbakken Volcanic Province, located on the central parts of the western Barents Sea continental margin, and adjacent oceanic crust in the Norwegian-Greenland Sea. The results are derived mainly from interpretation and modeling of multichannel seismic, ocean bottom seismometer and land station data along a regional seismic profile. The resulting model shows oceanic crust in the western parts of the profile. This crust is buried by a thick Cenozoic sedimentary package. Low velocities in the bottom of this package indicate overpressure. The igneous oceanic crust shows an average thickness of 7.2 km with the thinnest crust (5–6 km) in the southwest and the thickest crust (8–9 km) close to the continent-ocean boundary (COB). The thick oceanic crust is probably related to high mantle temperatures formed by brittle weakening and shear heating along a shear system prior to continental breakup. The COB is interpreted in the central parts of the profile where the velocity structure and Bouguer anomalies change significantly. East of the COB Moho depths increase while the vertical velocity gradient decreases. Below the assumed center for Early Eocene volcanic activity the model shows increased velocities in the crust. These increased crustal velocities are interpreted to represent Early Eocene mafic feeder dykes. East of the zone of volcanoes velocities in the crust decrease and sedimentary velocities are observed at depths of more than 10 km. The amount of crustal intrusions is much lower in this area than farther west. East of the Kn?legga Fault crystalline basement velocities are brought close to the seabed. This fault marks the eastern limit of thick Cenozoic and Mesozoic packages on central parts of the western Barents Sea continental margin.     

Modeling equilibrium bed profiles of short tidal embayments

In many tidal embayments, bottom patterns, such as the channel-shoal systems of the Wadden Sea, are observed. To gain understanding of the mechanisms that result in these bottom patterns, an idealized model is developed and analyzed for short tidal embayments. In this model, the water motion is described by the depth- and width-averaged shallow water equations and forced by a prescribed sea surface elevation at the entrance of the embayment. The bed evolves due to the divergence and convergence of suspended sediment fluxes. To model this suspended-load sediment transport, the three-dimensional advection–diffusion equation is integrated over depth and averaged over the width. One of the sediment fluxes in the resulting one-dimensional advection–diffusion equation is proportional to the gradient of the local water depth. In most models, this topographically induced flux is not present. Using standard continuation techniques, morphodynamic equilibria are obtained for different parameter values and forcing conditions. The bathymetry of the resulting equilibrium bed profiles and their dependency on parameters, such as the phase difference between the externally prescribed M₂ and M₄ tide and the sediment fall velocity, are explained physically. With this model, it is then shown that for embayments that are dominated by a net import of sediment, morphodynamic equilibria only exist up to a maximum embayment length. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the model to different morphological boundary conditions at the entrance of the embayment is investigated and it is demonstrated how this strongly influences the shape and number of possible equilibrium bottom profiles. This paper ends with a comparison between the developed model and field data for the Wadden Sea’s Ameland and Frisian inlets. When the model is forced with the observed M₂ and M₄ tidal constituents, morphodynamic equilibria can be found with embayment lengths similar to those observed in these inlets. However, this is only possible when the topographically induced suspended sediment flux is included. Without this flux, the maximum embayment length for which morphodynamic equilibria can be found is approximately a third of the observed length. The sensitivity of the model to the topographically induced sediment flux is discussed in detail.