The Tau Model for Data Redundancy and Information Combination in Earth Sciences: Theory and Application

Many decision-making processes in the Earth sciences require the combination of multiple data originating from diverse sources. These data are often indirect and uncertain, and their combination would call for a probabilistic approach. These data are also partially redundant with each other or with all others taken jointly. This overlap in information arises due to a variety of reasons—because the data arises from the same geology, because they originate from the same location or the same measurement device, etc. The proposed tau model combines partially redundant data, each taking the form of a prior probability for the event being assessed to occur given that single datum. The parameters of that tau model measure the additional contribution brought by any single datum over that of all previously considered data; they are data sequence-dependent and also data value-dependent. Data redundancy depends on the sequence in which the data is considered and also on the data values themselves. However, for a given sequence, averaging the tau model parameters over all possible data values leads to exact analytical expressions and corresponding approximations and inference avenues. Information on multiple-point connectivity of permeability arrives from core data, well-test data and seismic data which are defined over varying supports with complex redundancy between these information sources. In order to compute these tau weights for determining connectivity, one needs a model of data redundancy, here expressed as a vectorial training image (Ti) constructed using a prior conceptual knowledge of geology and the physics of data measurement. From such a vectorial Ti, the tau weights can be computed exactly. Neglecting data redundancy leads to an over-compounding of individual data information and the possible risk of making extreme decisions.     

Group Time Delay in the Reflection of P-Polarized Electromagnetic Plane Waves at a Stratigraphic Interface

The group time delay (GTD) formulae of quasi-total reflection of inhomogeneous P-polarized electromagnetic waves (P-PEW, whose electric field parallels to the plane of incidence), caused by the Goos–Hänchen effect, is derived by the phase shift of the wave. A numerical example where the frequency equals to 1 GHz is given. The curves of calculating results show that there are three discontinuous points at the critical angle of phase shift vector, the critical angle of attenuation vector and 90^○. When the angle of incidence is equal to one of these three angles, the GTD will become infinite, and the electromagnetic wave will propagate along the interface. The GTD will be very large, when the angle of incidence is close to one of these three angles. The results indicate that there is an important relationship between the two critical angles and the conductivity and permittivity of the two strata, and that the GTD has an important relationship with the angle of incidence. These results can be used to determine the lithology of the strata and to delimit the interfaces of strata more effectively. It is suggested that this research may prove useful in electromagnetic logging analysis and, perhaps, in the design of logging instruments.     

Stability Analysis and Numerical Simulation of Differential Frost Heave

Differential frost heave is often implicated in the formation of patterned ground in regions subject to recurrent freezing and thawing. A linear stability analysis (LSA) indicates that a continuum model of frost heave is linearly unstable under typical natural freezing conditions of silty-clay soils. A two-dimensional non-linear numerical analysis corroborates the frozen time LSA results, and also indicates the importance of non-linear and time-dependent terms that ultimately lead to a preferred mode, which the LSA fails to predict. Instability of the one-dimensional solution occurs at shallow freezing depths and near-zero surface loads when positive perturbations in the ice content at the freezing front lead to a concomitant increase in thermomolecular pressure and upward ice velocity. Differential frost heave can then occur because of the increased heat flux from the perturbed surfaces. A three-dimensional model using random initial surface perturbations indicates that regular surface patterns will evolve with a length scale in the order of 2–4 meters, which corresponds quite closely with naturally-occurring non-sorted patterned ground.     

Non-Linear Theory and Power-Law Models for Information Integration and Mineral Resources Quantitative Assessments

Singular physical or chemical processes may result in anomalous amounts of energy release or mass accumulation that, generally, are confined to narrow intervals in space or time. Singularity is a property of different types of non-linear natural processes including cloud formation, rainfall, hurricanes, flooding, landslides, earthquakes, wildfires, and mineralization. The end products of these non-linear processes can be modeled as fractals or multifractals. Hydrothermal processes in the Earth’s crust can result in ore deposits characterized by high concentrations of metals with fractal or multifractal properties. Here we show that the non-linear properties of the end products of singular mineralization processes can be applied for prediction of undiscovered mineral deposits and for quantitative mineral resource assessment, whether for mineral exploration or for regional, national and global planning for mineral resource utilization. In addition to the general theory and framework for the non-linear mineral resources assessment, this paper focuses on several power-law models proposed for characterizing non-linear properties of mineralization and for geoinformation extraction and integration. The theories, methods, and computer system discussed in this paper were validated using a case study dealing with hydrothermal Au mineral potential in southern Nova Scotia, Canada.     

Inversely-Mapped Analytical Solutions for Flow Patterns around and within Inclined Elliptic Inclusions in Fluid-Saturated Rocks

In this paper, an inverse mapping is used to transform the previously-derived analytical solutions from a local elliptical coordinate system into a conventional Cartesian coordinate system. This enables a complete set of exact analytical solutions to be derived rigorously for the pore-fluid velocity, stream function, and excess pore-fluid pressure around and within buried inclined elliptic inclusions in pore-fluid-saturated porous rocks. To maximize the application range of the derived analytical solutions, the focal distance of an ellipse is used to represent the size of the ellipse, while the length ratio of the long axis to the short one is used to represent the geometrical shape of the ellipse. Since the present analytical solutions are expressed in a conventional Cartesian coordinate system, it is convenient to investigate, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the distribution patterns of the pore-fluid flow and excess pressure around and within many different families of buried inclined elliptic inclusions. The major advantage in using the present analytical solution is that they can be conveniently computed in a global Cartesian coordinate system, which is widely used in many scientific and engineering computations. As an application example, the present analytical solutions have been used to investigate how the dip angle of an inclined elliptic inclusion affects the distribution patterns of the pore-fluid flow and excess pore-fluid pressure when the permeability ratio of the elliptic inclusion is of finite but nonzero values.     

Generalized theory of impacts in particulate systems

The theory of collisional systems is generalized for an arbitrary geometry and forces acting in the system, mixtures of different particle types, friction, small deviations from the ideal spherical form, axial rotation, finite size of particles and gravitational interactions. Terms for the formation of new particles and destruction of old ones are also included, and other unspecified parameters can be introduced. Although some approximations are made to simplify the basic equations and to avoid excessive numerical interactions, a comparison with computer simulations shows a good agreement. The tests were continued up to the optical thickness = 5.     

New Universities and their cities, the case of Vaasa, Finland

University activities began in Finland in 1640 when the University of Turku was founded. Later it was transferred to Helsinki, the new capital of Finland. The turn of the century saw the emergence of new university level institutions in Helsinki and Turku. The explosion of the Finnish university system took place after the Second World War. Now there are 20 university level institutes. Consequently the access to university studies and other services has improved greatly. The university centre of Vaasa belongs to the new wave of universities founded from 1960 on. In the city there are now 4 units, one Finnish speaking, two Swedish speaking and one bilingual. This reflects the language structure of the area. All of the universities have had their individual development features. The Finnish speaking University of Vaasa is the biggest one. The main impact of the Vaasa universities is the participation in the rising of the level of education in Finland and its effect on economy and other development. The research institute of Vaasa University has served the surrounding areas and nation through applied research projects. The continuing education centre has served the areas firms with many kinds of tailored courses for the management. In the humanistics influence has been through specialised language courses and multilingual immersion. A newspaper university is one of the new forms of impact. The city has an Academic axis going through the innermost part of the city. It is divided clearly into two Finnish and one Swedish speaking area.     

Ozone production due to emissions from vegetation burning

Ozone has been observed in elevated concentrations by satellites over areas previously believed to be background. There is meteorological evidence, that these ozone plumes found over the Atlantic Ocean originate from vegetation fires on the African continent.In a previous study (DECAFE-88), we have investigated ozone and assumed precursor compounds over African tropical forest regions. Our measurements revealed large photosmog layers at altitudes from 1.5 to 4 km. Both chemical and meteorological evidence point to savanna fires up to several thousand km upwind as sources.Here we describe ozone mixing ratios observed over western Africa and compare ozone production ratios from different field measurement campaigns related to vegetation burning. We find that air masses containing photosmog ingredients require several days to develop their oxidation potential, similar to what is known from air polluted by emissions from fossil fuel burning. Finally, we estimate the global ozone production due to vegetation fires and conclude that this source is comparable in strength to the stratospheric input.     

Coalescing neutron stars as gamma ray bursters?

We investigate the dynamics and evolution of coalescing neutron stars. The three-dimensional Newtonian equations of hydrodynamics are integrated by the Piecewise Parabolic Method on an equidistant Cartesian grid. The code is purely Newtonian, but does include the emission of gravitational waves and their back-reaction. The properties of neutron star matter are described by the equation of state of Lattimer and Swesty (1991). Energy loss by all types of neutrinos and changes of the electron fraction due to the emission of electron neutrinos and antineutrinos are taken into account by an elaborate neutrino leakage scheme. We simulate the coalescence of two identical, cool neutron stars with a baryonic mass of 1.6M and a radius of 15 km and with an initial center-to-center distance of 42 km. The initial distributions of density and electron concentration are given from a model of a cold neutron star in hydrostatic equilibrium. We investigate three cases which differ by the initial velocity distribution in the neutron stars. The orbit decays due to gravitational-wave emission and after one revolution the stars are so close that dynamical instability sets in. Within 1 ms the neutron stars merge into a rapidly spinning (P 1 ms), high-density body ( 10¹⁴ g/cm³) with a surrounding thick disk of material with densities 10¹⁰ – 10¹² g/cm³ and orbital velocities of 0.3-0.5 c. The peak emission of gravitational waves has a maximum luminosity of a few times 10⁵⁵ erg/s and is reached for about 1 ms. The amplitudes of the gravitational waves are close to 3 10^–23 at a distance of 1 Gpc and the typical frequency is near the dynamical value of the orbital motion of the merging neutron stars of 2 KHz. In a post-processing step, the rate of neutrino-antineutrino annihilation is calculated from the neutrino luminosities generated during the hydrodynamical simulations. We find the integral annihilation rate to be a few 10⁵⁰ erg/s during the phase of strongest neutrino emission, which is too small to generate the observed bursts considering the fact that the merged object of about 3M will most likely collapse to a black hole within milliseconds.     

Infrared extinction of heavy ion irradiated and amorphous olivine,with applications to interstellar dust

A smooth surface layer of highly disordered olivine, (Mg, Fe)₂SiO₄, has been produced by exposure of polished, natural olivine to a dose of 5×10¹⁶ cm^–2 of 1.5 MeV neon ions from a Van de Graaff accelerator. The dielectric functions of the disordered silicate in the wavelength range from 8 to 30 m have been determined from analysis of specular reflectance data, and extinction for Rayleigh particles of such disordered olivine has been calculated. Extinction measurements for amorphous olivine smoke collected on a substrate are also presented. The small particle extinctions of both kinds of structurally disordered olivine are shown to agree well with the main features of the absorption and emission spectra from interstellar grains in the 10 and 20 m region.